See my post here for my reasons why I feel VGC is overtracking the XBO. Furthermore, Halo was a sales disappointment (relative to past Halo titles, anyway) and was only a moderate system-seller and is unlikely to move an appreciable amount of hardware for November. Star Wars is a marketing & bundle exclusive for the PS4 and thus was unlikely to have a measurable effect on XBO sales. Fallout 4 was probably the only game that shifted an appreciable amount of units, but I somehow doubt it could be so big of a system-seller so as to make up for the fact that the forces that drove the XBO to 1.23M last November are not a factor this November. In fact, if Amazon was any indication XBO sales did not move appreciably the week Fallout 4 debuted, and there wasn't exactly a ton of Fallout 4 bundles preordered, either.

I stand by my claim that VGC is overtracking the XBO by a considerable amount. They overtracked it by 200k last November (and their pre-adjustment estimates are frequently quite a bit off from NPD numbers), so it's not improbable that they didn't do so again this year.

I forgot VGC did that last year. VGC may have over-estimated the sales benefit of FO4 and may have underestimated the tectonic shift of CoD becoming associated with PS instead of Xbox. We should not forget that most X360 owners never owned a Xbox before and the CoD fans may have more loyalty to CoD than to Xbox (or Playstation), and so they will go to the console that gets the CoD support. VGC also estimates that FO4 sold better on PS4, that suggests PS4 got almost as big a hardware boost from FO4 as Xb one did.

Plus, Sony announced 30.2m sell-through as of the 22nd (iirc), so we know the numbers needed some attention even before BF.