I can't see this generation lasting less than 7 years. 

A lot of us thought this gen would start in 2011, but last gen just dragged on and on and on.

It already did
https://youtu.be/PKePvM84KL4?t=2m29s

With PS4 stealing Xbox fans from US and honestly worldwide, it's a slaughter while Xbox has probably not enticed a percent of the PS fandom to their side, I could see it happening and worse, the faster PS4 sells, the higher the chance for market oversaturation in favor of PS4.

The market is pretty big these days, it is nowhere remotely close to saturated yet.

Xbox One won't sell less than 50 million I reckon, given that I don't expect it to be replaced before 2020.

PC gaming though.

Did I say it is oversaturated already?

And really 2020? Lol

50M. Too Optimistic. It's selling 7M a year and considering a competition such as PS4 with a history for longevity like its brothers before him, for it to sell 7M+ every year til 2020 is asking a lot of it.

Japan is a very different market though. X1 is in a better position having no relevance in Japan but a bigger presence in Europe. Why? Europeans buy the same games as US consumers, while Japan is virtually its own market.

Bottom line, comparing N64 to X1 is a stretch for numerous reasons. The more we discuss it the more that argument falls apart.

If you told people in 2008 that PS3 and 360 wouldn't be replaced until 2013, a lot of people then would have said "lol" as well. 

It's really not that significantly more relevant in Europe compared to N64 though. Xbox One might have like 20% market share in Europe when all is said and done compared to about 15% for Nintendo 64, not really as significant as u make it out to be, the market in Europe has grown by a lot since the mid/late 90s so comparing purely by raw numbers doesn't tell the whole picture.

This is somewhat unrealistic.

(1)- The 360 launched pretty slowly for 05/06. It was coming off a niche console (the OG, my favorite Xbox btw), and without it's flagship title the brand's small footprint was known for. The 1-2-3 combo of Gears launching and becoming a huge hit, PS3 disappointing a lot of people with $599 and a lack of big launch titles, and then Halo 3 dropping, by 2007 onward the 360 started selling big, and the later Kinect craze gave a second wind. None of these factors are similar to 8th gen realities.

(2)- I'll have to find the numbers accumulated by Zhuge, but from what I gather, unless the X1 keeps pretty close to last years insane Nov/Dec X1 numbers, the X1 will actually sell less in 2015 than it did in 2014. 2014 holidays the X1 had a huge price advantage, a 'temporary sale' to draw people in, a bundled new AAA game, and various giveaways at major retailers. That was all against a $399 SKU PS4. From all indications, it looks like this holiday season is shaping up quite a bit differently.

This isn't to say that X1 won't continue to be a success in the US market, even as a 2nd place console. But it's very easy to forget how gen7 shaped up, it really started VERY slowly, while the opposite seems to be true for this gen. X1 started like wildfire out of the gate for Nov/Dec 2013, fell flat during the year (offseason, lol), did gangbusters in Nov/Dec 2014 on the back of a huge price advantage and cutthroat deals, did okayish during the middle of 2015, and appears to be falling short of the 2014 holidays this year.

We'll know for sure in early january when we get the Dec NPDs in, but odds are 2014 > 2015 for X1 sales. And this was Halo 5 year. Unless Gears 4 is a major hit or something else suprises us all (it can happen), it's probable that 2014 > 2015 > 2016 will be true as well.

I do think $299 will be here to stay pretty soon for both consoles, and there's really not a lot of room to manuever past that to jumpstart sales. Maybe $249 black friday deals next year. But this isn't like the days of 360s vs PS3, where there was a ton of room for both sides to drop prices back and forth over the gen. Considering inflation, this is already a REALLY cheap gen. $299 PS4s/X1s are notably cheaper in real world adjusted cost compared to $199 Super Nintendo lol. 

LOL! Oh boy, now that is spin. Userbase determines relevance, not marketshare.

By your logic, X1 could be more relevant in Europe if MS simply sold less hardware in the US. Because that's logic of determining relevance by marketshare.

Again, the longer this discussion goes on the more this argument falls apart. X1 can probably sell 15 - 20 million units in Europe (depending on how competitive MS is). While the N64 only sold 6 million. That's why X1 is more relevant in Europe.