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Arkaign on 01 December 2015
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Snoopy said:
curl-6 said:

While I agree Xbox One will not sell as much as the 360, I think 35-40 million is lowballing it a bit; this generation could drag on for as long as the last, giving it plenty of time to make steady progress.


This generation will be 5 to 6 years long. An 8 year generation was a fluke to be honest. However, xbox one will continue to outdo xbox 360 each year you align it with nonethless. Microsoft's xbox one is already outdoing the 360 even with strong competition unlike last gen for the first few years.

This is somewhat unrealistic.

(1)- The 360 launched pretty slowly for 05/06. It was coming off a niche console (the OG, my favorite Xbox btw), and without it's flagship title the brand's small footprint was known for. The 1-2-3 combo of Gears launching and becoming a huge hit, PS3 disappointing a lot of people with $599 and a lack of big launch titles, and then Halo 3 dropping, by 2007 onward the 360 started selling big, and the later Kinect craze gave a second wind. None of these factors are similar to 8th gen realities.

(2)- I'll have to find the numbers accumulated by Zhuge, but from what I gather, unless the X1 keeps pretty close to last years insane Nov/Dec X1 numbers, the X1 will actually sell less in 2015 than it did in 2014. 2014 holidays the X1 had a huge price advantage, a 'temporary sale' to draw people in, a bundled new AAA game, and various giveaways at major retailers. That was all against a $399 SKU PS4. From all indications, it looks like this holiday season is shaping up quite a bit differently.

This isn't to say that X1 won't continue to be a success in the US market, even as a 2nd place console. But it's very easy to forget how gen7 shaped up, it really started VERY slowly, while the opposite seems to be true for this gen. X1 started like wildfire out of the gate for Nov/Dec 2013, fell flat during the year (offseason, lol), did gangbusters in Nov/Dec 2014 on the back of a huge price advantage and cutthroat deals, did okayish during the middle of 2015, and appears to be falling short of the 2014 holidays this year.

We'll know for sure in early january when we get the Dec NPDs in, but odds are 2014 > 2015 for X1 sales. And this was Halo 5 year. Unless Gears 4 is a major hit or something else suprises us all (it can happen), it's probable that 2014 > 2015 > 2016 will be true as well.

I do think $299 will be here to stay pretty soon for both consoles, and there's really not a lot of room to manuever past that to jumpstart sales. Maybe $249 black friday deals next year. But this isn't like the days of 360s vs PS3, where there was a ton of room for both sides to drop prices back and forth over the gen. Considering inflation, this is already a REALLY cheap gen. $299 PS4s/X1s are notably cheaper in real world adjusted cost compared to $199 Super Nintendo lol.