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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Halo 5: Guardians sells more than $400 million (games and hardware)

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hudsoniscool on 04 November 2015
Puppyroach said:
Looking at everyone's guesses here and the number of different factors affecting that $400m statement, it sounds reasonable that Halo 5 sold around 3M week one and shifted around 300000 consoles meaning a lot of 360 owners jumped to X1 this week. The rest of the revenue is made up by extra controllers (likely special edition ones) headsets and REQ packs. So a massive success and we will likely see lifetime sales of maybe 8M which puts it in the ballpark of Halo:CE and Halo 2.


You may very well be right about the 3 million, but 300k of those 500$ consoles is extremely high. The bundle is so overpriced compared to other bundles(heck even the standard console with no game is better value) I have trouble believing it sold anymore than 50-75k.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

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hudsoniscool on 04 November 2015
Arkaign said:
starcraft said:
binary solo said:

There is simply no way Halo 5 did 5 million week 1. And I agree that console sales won't be vastly different than past halo launches (200K range). So we can take roughly $100 million out of the equation for console hardware sales. We don't know how many req packs have been sold rather than earned, but I accept that it's likel most of them have been earned rather than sold. That leaves us with hidden revenue streams MS has not explicitly mentioned which are probably captured in the "hardware" category. Hardware is not just consoles, because hardware can include peripherals (controllers) and Halo themed merchandise.

Surely, logically you can't really think Halo 5 has sold 5 million in the first week. The only way that is a logically tennable number is if all or most of the other main Halo titles sold more than 5 million in their first week, and VGC is thus significantly undertracking the opening week of all those past Halo titles. That is certainly possible, given we know VGC software accuracy is pretty low in many cases. But if VGC tracking of past halo games is good to within 10 or 15% then 5 million for Halo 5 is absoltely out of the question.

For most games 3 million is massive. For Halo and what it means for the Xbox brand 3 million is decent.

No, I do not really think that Halo 5 sold 5 million copies in its first week. I do think that there is an enormous amount of revenue that cannot be accounted for by simply saying 'but rec packs and controllers.' Especially as the game is not split screen, and the only significant hardware outside of the console is controllers.

Halo 3 sold 5 million copies in a month. It is the best point of comparison, as it launched with the closest install base. By that metric, no matter what the split of revenue between game copies, controllers, DLC and Xbox One Halo 5 bundles, Halo 5 is an enormous success.

What my example was intended to do, was nudge people to either recognise the very obvious success of the game, or demonstrate how they break down that $400 million in such a way as to indicate the game sold poorly. They'll struggle to do the latter I suspect, as the game's success is self evident at this point.

Well, we also have another huge question coming up in terms of determining H5's success (and by extension to some degree, X1's 2015 fate) :

Will it have legs? Halo 3 launched in a different era. PS3 was still largely irrelevant in the US/UK at that point, and there wasn't the 1-2-3 multiplat combo of COD:Blops/Star Wars/Fallout following it's release footsteps in short order.

It could very well hold strong for the entire holidays to come.

It could also begin to drop off by a huge margin in the weeks to come. 

And it could also be somewhere in the middle of those scenarios (most likely?)

If H5 tails off and hits 3.5M LTD 2015, then falls to maybe 5.5-6M total LTD, that's a pretty drastic decline for a mainline entry.

So who knows, a lot of games with massive fanbases like this are severely front-loaded as opposed to traditional evergreen titles like Diablo, Starcraft, Minecraft, GTA, etc. Some of that might be distinct competition. GTA doesn't really have a close equal in the gaming sphere. Neither does Minecraft. Or Mario for that matter. But Halo is now another SP/MP FPS in a sea of others (and with two, arguably three depending on how you view FO4, MEGA competitors ready to launch imminently with large amounts of hype).

The best I can say to everyone is please chill out. Ninja PR means we know little about the reality of sales yet.

The smart money is that it's way better than terrible, and probably a good bit less than the peaks of H3/H4.

YMMV


3.5 million by the end of the year? What do u think it's at right now then?



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

Puppyroach on 04 November 2015
hudsoniscool said:
Puppyroach said:
Looking at everyone's guesses here and the number of different factors affecting that $400m statement, it sounds reasonable that Halo 5 sold around 3M week one and shifted around 300000 consoles meaning a lot of 360 owners jumped to X1 this week. The rest of the revenue is made up by extra controllers (likely special edition ones) headsets and REQ packs. So a massive success and we will likely see lifetime sales of maybe 8M which puts it in the ballpark of Halo:CE and Halo 2.


You may very well be right about the 3 million, but 300k of those 500$ consoles is extremely high. The bundle is so overpriced compared to other bundles(heck even the standard console with no game is better value) I have trouble believing it sold anymore than 50-75k.

Agreed but I think MS is doing a little bit of trickery here and added in the boost in total console sales and attributed that boost to Halo 5 (which is pretty logical) meaning hardware sales include the SE version as well as standard edition consoles.



Arkaign on 04 November 2015
hudsoniscool said:
Puppyroach said:
Looking at everyone's guesses here and the number of different factors affecting that $400m statement, it sounds reasonable that Halo 5 sold around 3M week one and shifted around 300000 consoles meaning a lot of 360 owners jumped to X1 this week. The rest of the revenue is made up by extra controllers (likely special edition ones) headsets and REQ packs. So a massive success and we will likely see lifetime sales of maybe 8M which puts it in the ballpark of Halo:CE and Halo 2.


You may very well be right about the 3 million, but 300k of those 500$ consoles is extremely high. The bundle is so overpriced compared to other bundles(heck even the standard console with no game is better value) I have trouble believing it sold anymore than 50-75k.

Well, core Halo fans are VERY dedicated. It remains to be seen how many of them there are in total, but we should all remember the hugely frontloaded X1 sales in 2013.

$499, no game. But it pretty much held 1:1 with PS4 in the US region. Why? Because there were a decent number of mega Xbox fans that would have bought it almost regardless of any other factor besides brand. PS and Nintendo also have the same type of buyer, the most hardcore, who always jump on at whatever is their 'thing', be it the console brand itself, or a particular game series. In the case of Nintendo, there are quite a few people that will actually buy a WiiU or NX or whatever the DAY that there is the next mainline Zelda game. Ditto Uncharted, Gran Turismo, yadda. They vary in scale, but never underestimate the MOST hardcore fans.

So I could see all the way to 400Kish gleefully buying the $499 LE Bundle, some of which may even already own an X1, because they are DIEHARD Halo fans.



Arkaign on 04 November 2015
hudsoniscool said:
Arkaign said:

Well, we also have another huge question coming up in terms of determining H5's success (and by extension to some degree, X1's 2015 fate) :

Will it have legs? Halo 3 launched in a different era. PS3 was still largely irrelevant in the US/UK at that point, and there wasn't the 1-2-3 multiplat combo of COD:Blops/Star Wars/Fallout following it's release footsteps in short order.

It could very well hold strong for the entire holidays to come.

It could also begin to drop off by a huge margin in the weeks to come. 

And it could also be somewhere in the middle of those scenarios (most likely?)

If H5 tails off and hits 3.5M LTD 2015, then falls to maybe 5.5-6M total LTD, that's a pretty drastic decline for a mainline entry.

So who knows, a lot of games with massive fanbases like this are severely front-loaded as opposed to traditional evergreen titles like Diablo, Starcraft, Minecraft, GTA, etc. Some of that might be distinct competition. GTA doesn't really have a close equal in the gaming sphere. Neither does Minecraft. Or Mario for that matter. But Halo is now another SP/MP FPS in a sea of others (and with two, arguably three depending on how you view FO4, MEGA competitors ready to launch imminently with large amounts of hype).

The best I can say to everyone is please chill out. Ninja PR means we know little about the reality of sales yet.

The smart money is that it's way better than terrible, and probably a good bit less than the peaks of H3/H4.

YMMV


3.5 million by the end of the year? What do u think it's at right now then?

Honestly? I have absolutely no idea. Neither on the current number, nor the end of year figures. We simply don't have the data, and we have conflicting and confusing info sources thus far.

Neither 3M nor 6M LTD 2015 would surprise me. But I would tend to guess somewhere in the middle range. As noted, we don't know what the torrent of mega titles (COD/Star Wars/Fallout/etc) is going to do to Halo's legs. Great word of mouth could keep it going, or people could get more interested in the next hot thing. All we can do is wait, lol.



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Arkaign on 04 November 2015

A further note : A surprise (not surprising?) $349 X1 promotion through the new year with free Halo 5 could HUGELY boost the LTDs.

As in : buy any X1, get Halo 5 digital code free through Jan 1st.



Puppyroach on 04 November 2015

Assuming 3M first week and a similar drop of rate as Halo 4, we could look at sales of around 4.3-4.5M after the first four weeks, not to shabby if it turns out to be true.



jason1637 on 04 November 2015
ethomaz said:
Just making some weak maths.

200k Halo 5 Bundles = $100m (assuming all these bundles where sold in US because Euro is more expensive)

That alone down the record numbers to $300 million.

Now how many bundled controllers, limited editions, etc did it sold?

See how it works lol


There were only 2 controlelrs and they have been open for purchase since like early october. Also LEs came witht he game.



Ali_16x on 04 November 2015
starcraft said:
BraLoD said:

Not most of people here.

Not only here, but what people will be talking about Halo 5 succes or not later will be regarding it's sales reach.

They didn't included the actual sales number very aware of what they were doing, while showing a lot of random other numbers.

They were sure to not include what they knew a good bunch of people actually wanted. Software sales for their latest flagship game.

I think you have misunderstood the purpose of this press release.

It was not for you. It was for Microsoft shareholders, and prospective Microsoft investors.

I think you misunderstood what the-pi-guy was talking about, for one investors do not account for even a fraction of most people because investors are such a small few. Even if that number is for shareholders, it's not what most people want, they want units sold.



"There is only one race, the pathetic begging race"

jason1637 on 04 November 2015
Puppyroach said:
Slarvax said:
I love how they can say SO MANY things... but don't give us sale numbers.

Have they ever given launch week numbers for any Halo game? Just a question because I don't know.


no