Arkaign said:
Well, we also have another huge question coming up in terms of determining H5's success (and by extension to some degree, X1's 2015 fate) :
Will it have legs? Halo 3 launched in a different era. PS3 was still largely irrelevant in the US/UK at that point, and there wasn't the 1-2-3 multiplat combo of COD:Blops/Star Wars/Fallout following it's release footsteps in short order.
It could very well hold strong for the entire holidays to come.
It could also begin to drop off by a huge margin in the weeks to come.
And it could also be somewhere in the middle of those scenarios (most likely?)
If H5 tails off and hits 3.5M LTD 2015, then falls to maybe 5.5-6M total LTD, that's a pretty drastic decline for a mainline entry.
So who knows, a lot of games with massive fanbases like this are severely front-loaded as opposed to traditional evergreen titles like Diablo, Starcraft, Minecraft, GTA, etc. Some of that might be distinct competition. GTA doesn't really have a close equal in the gaming sphere. Neither does Minecraft. Or Mario for that matter. But Halo is now another SP/MP FPS in a sea of others (and with two, arguably three depending on how you view FO4, MEGA competitors ready to launch imminently with large amounts of hype).
The best I can say to everyone is please chill out. Ninja PR means we know little about the reality of sales yet.
The smart money is that it's way better than terrible, and probably a good bit less than the peaks of H3/H4.
YMMV
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