By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Halo 5: Guardians sells more than $400 million (games and hardware)

Tagged games:

hudsoniscool on 04 November 2015
binary solo said:
hudsoniscool said:


I sure at least 90% of those req packs were earned for free. Between me n my friends we probably got 200 req packs and we didn't spend a dollar. Also they give u req packs when u level up and complete commendations. I probably got 20.

Interesting. So revenue-wise Req packs may not be significant. But what can we guess as the average number of req packs per person who has played Halo 5? If that is 20 (e.g. you represent the average player). Then that puts Halo 5 at ~2.25 million people who have played Halo 5, which puts actual Halo 5 sales below 2.25 million. If the number is 10 then that puts the numebr of people who played Halo 5 at 4.5 million, and sales are something below 4.5 million. If the number is 5, then that puts number of players at 9 million and Halo 5 sales something below 9 million. If between you and your buddies you collected 200 req packs, how many req packs per person is that? Do you consider yourself and your buddies roughly average Halo players or do you think you are a little more obsessed with playing Halo than your average Halo player?

Again, using some critical thinking with the MS PR, it is highly unlikely that Halo 5 broke unit sales records, because MS would have said as much. So the average number of req packs per game sold is definitely going to be more than 10, and probably more than 15, and possibly upto 20, and potentially more than 20.

Me n my 3 friends are probably in the top 5% or so. Very active lol. And we got packs for pre ordering, and for watching nightfall.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

Around the Network
hudsoniscool on 04 November 2015
the-pi-guy said:
hudsoniscool said:

u speak the truth there. I've been laughing my but off At certain comments. 

So why hasn't MS announced the sales of the game?

If it had done well, or really well like some people are suggesting, why wouldn't they announce sales numbers?

It's one thing to be successful, and not announce anything.  

It's another thing to be successful and announce a lot of stats, but ignore the one that people are really interested in.  

2 years ago people thought that Sony not saying anything meant that the PS4 wasn't doing so well.  "They didn't reach 3m or else they would have said something."

But MS said lots of things about Halo's success, why didn't they include the one thing that people were looking for?

U would have to ask them that. Probably like Starcraft said, what sounds better to investors and potential investors 4 million sold or 400 million in revenue.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

starcraft on 04 November 2015
the-pi-guy said:
hudsoniscool said:

u speak the truth there. I've been laughing my but off At certain comments. 

So why hasn't MS announced the sales of the game?

If it had done well, or really well like some people are suggesting, why wouldn't they announce sales numbers?

It's one thing to be successful, and not announce anything.  

It's another thing to be successful and announce a lot of stats, but ignore the one that people are really interested in.  

2 years ago people thought that Sony not saying anything meant that the PS4 wasn't doing so well.  "They didn't reach 3m or else they would have said something."

But MS said lots of things about Halo's success, why didn't they include the one thing that people were looking for?

They did. Its the headline - $400 million.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

binary solo on 04 November 2015
starcraft said:
binary solo said:

If MS is adding the 45 million req packs into their $400 million revenue then that takes a large chunk of the $400 million out of the equation for game sales as well.

Also, according to VGC Halo 3 took 4 weeks to reach 5 million, and 5 weeks to reach 5.2 million. Reach also took 4 week, Halo 4 also took 4 week, but of course Halo 4 had digital as well. But still, there is no way any of the previous Halos got anwhere close to 5 million in the first week with or without digital sales added to VGC.

I guarantee if Halo 5 sold 5 million copies in the first week MS would be putting that up in the biggest brightest lights in every gaming publication in the world. They have not, ergo Halo 5 did not come anywhere close to 5 million week 1. If the game sold 4 million week 1 that would also be a record and it would be being hailed as a massive achievement. Therefore I say using revenue as a basis for guessing number of games sold is highly unreliable.

More than likely, because unit sales have not been mentioned at all, the game sold under 3.5 million week 1. While that is far from being disappointing, it is also not a number that can inspire and amaze, because the previous main entries for Halo all did better. Disappointing for a Halo title would be under 2.5 million. Sales between 2.5 and 3.5 million appears to be the ballpark. 

Considering total hours played in that first full week, 3 million is a pretty reasonable guess I think. ~7hrs average total play time per game sold, factoring in shortness of campaign and many people not playing the whole campaign, or even any campaign, seems like a reasonable guess. If anything ~7hrs total play time per game sold feels a bit low. But I think kowen may reflect a significant number of Halo fans, i.e. the fanbase is ageing as a large number have been with the fanchise since the original game, and as we get older we have less time we can devote to gaming. I would be surprised to see VGC publish more than 2.5 million FW. The difference being that there are 2 sales days not accounted in VGC's week 1 data compared to MS's "first week" PR, and there are digital sales VGC doesn't count.

Certainly, REQ packs could skew the numbers from absolutely enormous to just close to enormous. Bare in mind it will certainly include the large number of free req packs that have been given out. Note they very specifically said 'acquired,' not sold. To give you an idea, if you watched Nightfall, you'll get 3-5 REQ packs immediately just for that. Posted on the Halo forums? There is another pack. Played the Beta a bit? There is another 3-5 packs. Pre-order and/or buy a special edition? Another few packs available. People can very feasibly have 10 packs and not have spent a cent for them.

As has been detailed multiple times in this thread, Microsoft's intial PR around previous (very successful) Halo launches has focused very intently on revenue for investors, not exact sales for gamers.

If the game has 'only' sold 3 million first week (which would be massive), console sales must be HUGE.

There is simply no way Halo 5 did 5 million week 1. And I agree that console sales won't be vastly different than past halo launches (200K range). So we can take roughly $100 million out of the equation for console hardware sales. We don't know how many req packs have been sold rather than earned, but I accept that it's likel most of them have been earned rather than sold. That leaves us with hidden revenue streams MS has not explicitly mentioned which are probably captured in the "hardware" category. Hardware is not just consoles, because hardware can include peripherals (controllers) and Halo themed merchandise.

Surely, logically you can't really think Halo 5 has sold 5 million in the first week. The only way that is a logically tennable number is if all or most of the other main Halo titles sold more than 5 million in their first week, and VGC is thus significantly undertracking the opening week of all those past Halo titles. That is certainly possible, given we know VGC software accuracy is pretty low in many cases. But if VGC tracking of past halo games is good to within 10 or 15% then 5 million for Halo 5 is absoltely out of the question.

For most games 3 million is massive. For Halo and what it means for the Xbox brand 3 million is decent.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

starcraft on 04 November 2015
BraLoD said:
starcraft said:

They did. Its the headline - $400 million.

Not most of people here.

Not only here, but what people will be talking about Halo 5 succes or not later will be regarding it's sales reach.

They didn't included the actual sales number very aware of what they were doing, while showing a lot of random other numbers.

They were sure to not include what they knew a good bunch of people actually wanted. Software sales for their latest flagship game.

I think you have misunderstood the purpose of this press release.

It was not for you. It was for Microsoft shareholders, and prospective Microsoft investors.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

Around the Network
hudsoniscool on 04 November 2015
BraLoD said:
starcraft said:

They did. Its the headline - $400 million.

Not most of people here.

Not only here, but what people will be talking about Halo 5 succes or not later will be regarding it's sales reach.

They didn't included the actual sales number very aware of what they were doing, while showing a lot of random other numbers.

They were sure to not include what they knew a good bunch of people actually wanted. Software sales for their latest flagship game.

Want some numbers:

forza 5 had a attach ratio of 28.5 at launch and MS said 5 is the highest for 1st party title on x1. The math is there for anyone to do.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

starcraft on 04 November 2015
binary solo said:
starcraft said:

Certainly, REQ packs could skew the numbers from absolutely enormous to just close to enormous. Bare in mind it will certainly include the large number of free req packs that have been given out. Note they very specifically said 'acquired,' not sold. To give you an idea, if you watched Nightfall, you'll get 3-5 REQ packs immediately just for that. Posted on the Halo forums? There is another pack. Played the Beta a bit? There is another 3-5 packs. Pre-order and/or buy a special edition? Another few packs available. People can very feasibly have 10 packs and not have spent a cent for them.

As has been detailed multiple times in this thread, Microsoft's intial PR around previous (very successful) Halo launches has focused very intently on revenue for investors, not exact sales for gamers.

If the game has 'only' sold 3 million first week (which would be massive), console sales must be HUGE.

There is simply no way Halo 5 did 5 million week 1. And I agree that console sales won't be vastly different than past halo launches (200K range). So we can take roughly $100 million out of the equation for console hardware sales. We don't know how many req packs have been sold rather than earned, but I accept that it's likel most of them have been earned rather than sold. That leaves us with hidden revenue streams MS has not explicitly mentioned which are probably captured in the "hardware" category. Hardware is not just consoles, because hardware can include peripherals (controllers) and Halo themed merchandise.

Surely, logically you can't really think Halo 5 has sold 5 million in the first week. The only way that is a logically tennable number is if all or most of the other main Halo titles sold more than 5 million in their first week, and VGC is thus significantly undertracking the opening week of all those past Halo titles. That is certainly possible, given we know VGC software accuracy is pretty low in many cases. But if VGC tracking of past halo games is good to within 10 or 15% then 5 million for Halo 5 is absoltely out of the question.

For most games 3 million is massive. For Halo and what it means for the Xbox brand 3 million is decent.

No, I do not really think that Halo 5 sold 5 million copies in its first week. I do think that there is an enormous amount of revenue that cannot be accounted for by simply saying 'but rec packs and controllers.' Especially as the game is not split screen, and the only significant hardware outside of the console is controllers.

Halo 3 sold 5 million copies in a month. It is the best point of comparison, as it launched with the closest install base. By that metric, no matter what the split of revenue between game copies, controllers, DLC and Xbox One Halo 5 bundles, Halo 5 is an enormous success.

What my example was intended to do, was nudge people to either recognise the very obvious success of the game, or demonstrate how they break down that $400 million in such a way as to indicate the game sold poorly. They'll struggle to do the latter I suspect, as the game's success is self evident at this point.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

Puppyroach on 04 November 2015

Looking at everyone's guesses here and the number of different factors affecting that $400m statement, it sounds reasonable that Halo 5 sold around 3M week one and shifted around 300000 consoles meaning a lot of 360 owners jumped to X1 this week. The rest of the revenue is made up by extra controllers (likely special edition ones) headsets and REQ packs. So a massive success and we will likely see lifetime sales of maybe 8M which puts it in the ballpark of Halo:CE and Halo 2.



thismeintiel on 04 November 2015
starcraft said:
thismeintiel said:
Arkaign said:
I would hope MS sold well more than 200k X1's for Halo week. It's literally the flagship series for the brand, and this is the first mainline entry for the console.

We as currently set have no idea on the splits, or what is included. MS could be super creative and include non-H5 bundled X1s sold in this timeframe due to the (admittedly VERY probable) possibility that someone buying a $349 X1 during Halo week is probably buying it to play Halo 5. $349 X1 + $59 Halo 5 is the cheapest way to do it anyway, not everyone wants to pay $500 for LE.

As for the rest : REQ Pack sales, Controllers(?), Headsets(?), New/Renewed XBLG subs, etc, could all play a part in the quoted $400M number, or they might not.

5M+ 1st week sales are exceedingly unlikely given the X1 install base and accredited insider info from vetted people such as Abdiel (who on Neogaf/Bish certified, and a long history of great retailer info) that indicates that Halo 5 sold very well, but not particularly amazingly. Add in Amazon rankings, and it's all pretty muddy.

NPD will tell us a lot, but at the same time, may not really be enough either. Halo 5 will EASILY be the #1 software debut of the year so far, even without digital included.

The smart money is that H5 is a success on it's own terms (2015 console/FPS/platform realities considered), but will do less sales than Halo 3 or Halo 4. Not a disastrous falloff, but as we all know, there are ups and downs to everything.

It would have been interesting to know the Halo 3 first week revenue totals if the same items were included (hardware, misc merchandise, etc).

It definitely didn't do 5.2M+ as starcraft suggests/calculated.  There would be no reason to include all other numbers in the PR, as 5.2M would make it the best selling Halo according to VGC.  Something very unlikely given not only the PR spin, but also the hours played and lack of number of MP players given, which previous Halo PR has included.

Given the XBO's state outside of the US and UK, it would also mean that US and UK would have to do some heavy lifting to make up for lack of interest/sales in those countries.  We already know UK didn't do any of that lifting, so are we saying that Halo 5 crushed it in the US?  While I'm sure it did great in the US, I highly doubt it crushed it like it would have to.

Again, my calculations were based off the notion of very high console sales, with a great deal of potential for fluctuation.

But as you'll see from the various posts throughout this thread, MS has previously focused heavily on revenue figures, even for games we ultimately know sold very well first week. 

Additionally, the 'anglo' nations have always been the mainstay of Halo sales.

It must also be calculated with no LEs or CEs sold.  5.2M with sales only coming from the standard game would already put it at $312M.  With LE and CE at $99 and $199 $249, that must move it much closer to $400M all by itself.

And yes, they have focused on revenue.  Of SW.  But, if your number is correct revenue would be $312M, more with LE and CE, in just a week would make it the largest launch of a Halo game.  So, why include all HW and Req packs?  Simple.  The sales are nowhere near 5M, so they had to add them in to get to $400M.



 

Arkaign on 04 November 2015
starcraft said:
binary solo said:

There is simply no way Halo 5 did 5 million week 1. And I agree that console sales won't be vastly different than past halo launches (200K range). So we can take roughly $100 million out of the equation for console hardware sales. We don't know how many req packs have been sold rather than earned, but I accept that it's likel most of them have been earned rather than sold. That leaves us with hidden revenue streams MS has not explicitly mentioned which are probably captured in the "hardware" category. Hardware is not just consoles, because hardware can include peripherals (controllers) and Halo themed merchandise.

Surely, logically you can't really think Halo 5 has sold 5 million in the first week. The only way that is a logically tennable number is if all or most of the other main Halo titles sold more than 5 million in their first week, and VGC is thus significantly undertracking the opening week of all those past Halo titles. That is certainly possible, given we know VGC software accuracy is pretty low in many cases. But if VGC tracking of past halo games is good to within 10 or 15% then 5 million for Halo 5 is absoltely out of the question.

For most games 3 million is massive. For Halo and what it means for the Xbox brand 3 million is decent.

No, I do not really think that Halo 5 sold 5 million copies in its first week. I do think that there is an enormous amount of revenue that cannot be accounted for by simply saying 'but rec packs and controllers.' Especially as the game is not split screen, and the only significant hardware outside of the console is controllers.

Halo 3 sold 5 million copies in a month. It is the best point of comparison, as it launched with the closest install base. By that metric, no matter what the split of revenue between game copies, controllers, DLC and Xbox One Halo 5 bundles, Halo 5 is an enormous success.

What my example was intended to do, was nudge people to either recognise the very obvious success of the game, or demonstrate how they break down that $400 million in such a way as to indicate the game sold poorly. They'll struggle to do the latter I suspect, as the game's success is self evident at this point.

Well, we also have another huge question coming up in terms of determining H5's success (and by extension to some degree, X1's 2015 fate) :

Will it have legs? Halo 3 launched in a different era. PS3 was still largely irrelevant in the US/UK at that point, and there wasn't the 1-2-3 multiplat combo of COD:Blops/Star Wars/Fallout following it's release footsteps in short order.

It could very well hold strong for the entire holidays to come.

It could also begin to drop off by a huge margin in the weeks to come. 

And it could also be somewhere in the middle of those scenarios (most likely?)

If H5 tails off and hits 3.5M LTD 2015, then falls to maybe 5.5-6M total LTD, that's a pretty drastic decline for a mainline entry.

So who knows, a lot of games with massive fanbases like this are severely front-loaded as opposed to traditional evergreen titles like Diablo, Starcraft, Minecraft, GTA, etc. Some of that might be distinct competition. GTA doesn't really have a close equal in the gaming sphere. Neither does Minecraft. Or Mario for that matter. But Halo is now another SP/MP FPS in a sea of others (and with two, arguably three depending on how you view FO4, MEGA competitors ready to launch imminently with large amounts of hype).

The best I can say to everyone is please chill out. Ninja PR means we know little about the reality of sales yet.

The smart money is that it's way better than terrible, and probably a good bit less than the peaks of H3/H4.

YMMV