The phrase "too little, too late" comes to mind. In the last month or so, Sony has done some rather compelling things. Reluctant as I am to admit it, I've actually been impressed with their efforts at generating positive stuff. New games look good. Home looks good. PSN is shaping up a lot better than I expected. But none of it is going to be enough, I think.

Up until now I was wary of saying it, but at this point, I think it's safe to say that Sony will never break into 2nd place this generation. They'll keep a GameCube-level 2nd in Japan, and I'm not sure about Europe, but if they ever get to the point where they're generating enough momentum to compete with 360 or Wii on a monthly basis, the gap will have widened too far for them to actually break.  They could still come close, though.

The major question is, I think: what will Sony do if they end up with GameCube-level success for the long-run?

Yeah. I am just going to post that the PS3 will be a nightmare until the holiday season. And even then, it may not get the boost it will need. In fact, I dont see PS3 being anywhere near picking up speed until maybe mid 2008, or next holiday season-If then.

Its till early days guys. Wait until a couple of "big" titles come out (Lair, Heavenly Sword, etc..) - then see how the PS3 sales perform. Its no surprise that hardware is not moving when there are no games available. What this is doing though - is sending a clear message to PS3 developers... be wary. Sony should have launched 6-12 months later, with a heap of quality games, cheaper price and more PS3 units.

Shams... like I implied, those titles might push the PS3 to compete on a weekly or monthly basis, but one or two games won't help in the long term. Just ask my N64.

I think it depends on which way you look at it:

If by success you mean the overall profitability of the GCN, then it will do fine.

If by success you mean the overall number of consoles sold, then it is in trouble.

The PS3 (console and business strategy/plan) was never designed  to sell in such low volume.

I believe the quote was this. "People will buy the PS3 no matter what the price is." Obviously that isn't the case now is it? :) The PS3 needs a price drop and good titles launched to try and pick up steam. If this trend continues, it might just be impossible to come out of it, and a lot of 3rd parties will jump and not look back.

Actually, the quote was this:

"We want for consumers to think to themselves 'I will work more hours to buy one'. We want people to feel that they want it, irrespective of anything else...The PS3 will instill discipline in our children and adults alike. Everyone will know discipline."

Consumers are so disobedient these days...

I believe the "discipline" part of that quote was fake. But regardless, this is a nightmare for PS3. Its a nightmare for third party devs who bet the farm on PS3, too. And 174K is pretty pathetic for 360 as well. People were saying in January that under 200K/month would be very bad for PS3. Now even 360 isn't doing that, and PS3 could fall to 70K. Or lower. So far, PS3 has had an amazing ability to perform below our lowest expectations at every turn. So maybe it'll fall to 60K or 45k a month. Who knows. 100K was the seeming over/under for April, and it didn't really get close.

Right about that - it is fake - it was taken from here (just checked):

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159047

and here:

http://kotaku.com/gaming/media-criticism/ken-kutaragi-misunderstood-or-just-nuts-111634.php

I thought it was real, cuz 1up did a story and actually included it as a quote:

http://www.1up.com/do/feature?pager.offset=2&cId=3155393 

A PS3 price drop will not happen for a long time. If it did, it would cause more problems then solve them. The thing is already a couple hundred dollar loss per sale. I mean... how much farther can you drop the price?