The phrase "too little, too late" comes to mind. In the last month or so, Sony has done some rather compelling things. Reluctant as I am to admit it, I've actually been impressed with their efforts at generating positive stuff. New games look good. Home looks good. PSN is shaping up a lot better than I expected. But none of it is going to be enough, I think.
Up until now I was wary of saying it, but at this point, I think it's safe to say that Sony will never break into 2nd place this generation. They'll keep a GameCube-level 2nd in Japan, and I'm not sure about Europe, but if they ever get to the point where they're generating enough momentum to compete with 360 or Wii on a monthly basis, the gap will have widened too far for them to actually break. They could still come close, though.
The major question is, I think: what will Sony do if they end up with GameCube-level success for the long-run?