Predict Pokemon GO download count (I am inevitably right)

Neodegenerate

Currently Offline

10,501

2893 posts since 27/05/14

Recent Badges:

9 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 9 years.
3 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 3 years.
Breaking Out Managed to avoid being banned for 1 year.
2 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 2 years.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
7 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 7 years.

Currently Playing:

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (3DS)

Neodegenerate on 10 September 2015

fleischr said:

mZuzek said:
Pokémon was already a huge fad, back on the Game Boy days, and won't ever be as big again.

I don't think any brand recognition will make it have that many downloads.

I don't have enough knowledge of the mobile market to make a decent prediction (as if I ever made good predictions on the gaming market already), but my first guess is around 250m.

At some point, everything old becomes new again.

Because it's such a valuable brand, it instantly gets promoted by Apple, Google, Smartphone makers and retailers carrying those products in addition to Nintendo product.

Don't forget: this can move a piece of wristband hardware as well as AR glasses. Do you not see the huge dollar signs?

You are grossly over-estimating the casual smartphone user's interest in a mobile version of a popular video game on dedicated hardware.

Frogger

Currently Offline

78,389

15423 posts since 04/08/13

Recent Badges:

Social Butterfly 50 friends on gamrConnect.
I'm Special VGChartz staff member.
Escape Artist Managed to avoid being banned for 1 month.
'Ello Princess! Awarded for signing up.
Trust Me, It'll Have Legs 100 replies made to user's most popular thread.
God Of VGC 10,000 posts on the gamrConnect forums.

Frogger on 10 September 2015

Hundreds of millions. Not a billion. Angry Birds and Temple Run reached 1 billion as a franchise, not through one individual game.

Dr.Vita

Currently Offline

51,329

10651 posts since 29/11/14

Recent Badges:

The High Flyer Earned 40 badges.
Don't Forget To Save 10 status updates.
Shipped Or Sold? 15 comments posted on VGChartz sales articles.
1st Birthday Has been a VGChartz member for over 1 year.
Brotherhood 100 friends on gamrConnect.
Social Butterfly 50 friends on gamrConnect.

Dr.Vita on 10 September 2015

Do we even know if it is free2play or not?

Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

Ultrashroomz

Currently Offline

62,634

12315 posts since 15/06/14

Recent Badges:

The High Flyer Earned 40 badges.
I'm Special VGChartz staff member.
Drake's Diary 100 status updates.
11 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 11 years.
3 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 3 years.
Killer Scorpion Earned 60 badges.

Ultrashroomz on 10 September 2015

Around 100M seems right.

"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

StarOcean

Currently Offline

33,929

5554 posts since 06/12/13

Recent Badges:

2 Years Has been a VGChartz member for over 2 years.
1st Birthday Has been a VGChartz member for over 1 year.
So You Came Back For More, Huh? Logged in a second time.
Social Butterfly 50 friends on gamrConnect.
Watch Your Back! Received 10,000 profile views.
Don't Forget To Save 10 status updates.

Currently Playing:

Xenoblade Chronicles (Wii)

StarOcean on 10 September 2015

Dr.Vita said:
Do we even know if it is free2play or not?

No. But Ingress (the game it's based on and the dev who is helping work on it) is free so its safe to assume this will be too. The real money will come from microtractions and Pokemon Go Plus