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Forums - Sales Discussion - The OFFICIAL Apr 2007 NPD Thread

The next few months will not be as fun as they have been. I don't foresee a pricing move at least until August (back-to-school) season. Also, there is also no new sku's in the next 3 months. Wii supply is normalizing (I think I was the first to predict May). This means that the summer months will see weaker h/w sales overall compared with April. There might be minor spikes from game launches. But nothing on the level of Pokemon. So, for us number watchers, the next few months will be boredom with occasional fan flame wars



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I predict Wii to continue to sellout most if not all of its supply and for WiiDS to dominate the market



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Some more data from IGN:

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/789/789846p1.html

Bestselling top 10 for PS3:

1. F.E.A.R. (Sierra)
2. Motorstorm (Sony Computer Entertainment)
3. Spider-Man 3: Collector's Edition (Activision)
4. Resistance: Fall of Man (Sony Computer Entertainment)
5. Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (Bethesda)
6. Spider-Man 3 (Activision)
7. Major League Baseball 2K7 (2K Games)
8. The Godfather: The Don's Edition (Electronic Arts)
9. Virtua Fighter 5 (SEGA)
10. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Double Agent (Ubisoft)

With FEAR selling 45846 units being the only title within the overall top 20, and Motorstorm and Spider-Man 3 being on places 25 and 26 in the overall ranking.

Then they mention the top 20 overall best selling games from april (although Pokemon is left out, so this is either a console only list or a list of games above a certain pricepoint)

1. Super Paper Mario (Wii) Nintendo
2. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii) Nintendo
3. Guitar Hero 2 w/ Guitar (Xbox 360) Red Ocatane/Activision
4. Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (PS2) Red Octane/Activision
5. Spider-Man 3 (Xbox 360) Activision
6. Spider-Man 3 (PS2) Activision
7. God of War II (PS2) Sony
8. MLB '07: The Show (PS2) Sony
9. Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii) Nintendo
10. Major League Baseball 2K7 (Xbox 360) 2K Games
11. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter 2 (Xbox 360) Ubisoft
12. God of War (PS2) Sony
13. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 (Wii) Electronic Arts
14. Gears of War (Xbox 360) Epic
15. F.E.A.R. (PS3) Vivendi
16. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories (PS2) Rockstar
17. TMNT (PS2) Ubisoft
18. Major League Baseball 2K7 (PS2) 2K Games
19. Wario Ware: Smooth Moves (Wii) Nintendo
20. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas (Xbox 360) Ubisoft

Gamespot gave a few more numbers as well:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6171107.html?om_act=convert&om_clk=newstop&tag=newstop;title;4

This article puts Tiger Woods Wii on 53k units sold, Medal of Honor: Vanguard at 56k for Wii and PS2 combined and last MLB 2K7 at 177k without mentioning the exact platforms. Which means Gears of War sold somewhere between 53k and 45.8k units last week.

 Edit: IGN also posted a Wii top 10 now:

1. Super Paper Mario (Nintendo)
2. Wii Play w/ Remote (Nintendo)
3. Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Nintendo)
4. Tiger Woods PGA Tour '07 (Electronic Arts)
5. Wario Ware: Smooth Moves (Nintendo)
6. Spider-Man 3 (Activision)
7. Sonic and the Secret Rings (SEGA)
8. Cooking Mama: Cook Off (Majesco)
9. Rayman Raving Rabbids (Ubisoft)
10. Prince of Persia: Rival Swords (Ubisoft)
 



auroragb said:
The next few months will not be as fun as they have been. I don't foresee a pricing move at least until August (back-to-school) season. Also, there is also no new sku's in the next 3 months. Wii supply is normalizing (I think I was the first to predict May). This means that the summer months will see weaker h/w sales overall compared with April. There might be minor spikes from game launches. But nothing on the level of Pokemon. So, for us number watchers, the next few months will be boredom with occasional fan flame wars

 I disagree. The Wii just rose 100k from last months sales in a slow month of the year (April). The wii just set the record for the most Consoles sold in the month of April. The wii is still sitting at 10% national availability as it was back in January of this year when it was also, still, clearly,majorly suppy constrained. (http://www.Itrackr.com)

Its far from normalizing. mate. An increase in supply isnt the same as normalizing if the availability is still so low. 

 



koffieboon said:

With FEAR selling 45846 units being the only title within the overall top 20, and Motorstorm and Spider-Man 3 being on places 25 and 26 in the overall ranking.


whoa...

F.E.A.R. was the top selling PS3 game and it only moved 45,846?



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To be fair about supply/demand, and where things end up: The Xbox 360 did 320k last April in sales.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
To be fair about supply/demand, and where things end up: The Xbox 360 did 320k last April in sales.

 Wow, thats actually, really facking impressive. I had no idea they did that many last April. Wow. Nintendo BARELY beat them out. Like barely barely.



Yeah, it's important to note that Xbox360 has done very, very well in America. Many people didn't like TheSource's article titled "Why the Wii will never catch the 360 in the US," and while I do feel it was slightly slanted, it's not entirely unfair. The system has done VERY well in the States.

The problem for the 360 isn't the US: it's the EU (Where the 360 does acceptably well) and Japan (where it does terribly). If the numbers for the US could be replicated in Japan and the EU, the console would be absolutely dominant. 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

I believe April was the month the 360 supply constrain ended and started being available on shelves, wasn't it? It fell to about 220k in May of 2006. I don't think we've seen the ceiling for Wii sales, as I have yet to see one on shelves still in the NJ/PA area. I think the 360 could do close to half a million possibly during Halo 3 release, maybe even edge out the DS Lite that month.



Bodhesatva, you're overplaying how well the 360 has done in the States. Top selling consoles can easily do 8 or 9 million a year. 360 can do N64 levels in America, but probably not much above, unless something changes.

And 320K April last year sounds impressive, but supply was probably only just normalizing at that point after the botched launched. I don't remember exactly, but they might have still been delivering pre-order systems at that time. Sales looked like they might accelerate past XBox levels, but now it appears they merely "caught up" to XBox levels after the vastly inferior launch, and now normal sales at this price look to be pretty low. It wasn't even really close to 200K for April. Totally unimpressive, IMO.

Edit: Removed numbers I think were wrong.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.