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Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U hardware estimates up

Protendo said:
NobleTeam360 said:
Destiny in the top 10 and did the best on Xbox One. Surprising. Anyway, congrats to Sony on another month on top.


Why is it suprising? PSN had Destiny on sale digitally for a good chunk of the time. Buy the deluxe version on sale for $35 or spend more physically.

Destiny sold poorly digital in July

PS4 Games:
 1 Journey
2 Bastion
3 Batman: Arkham Knight
4 Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition
5 The Elder Scrolls Online: Tamriel Unlimited
6 Borderlands: The Handsome Collection
7 God of War III Remastered
8 Grand Theft Auto V
9 EA SPORTS Rory McIlroy PGA TOUR
10 EA SPORTS UFC
11 Mortal Kombat X
12 DRIVECLUB
13 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
14 J-STARS Victory VS+
15 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
16 Wolfenstein: The Old Blood
17 Transistor
18 Devil May Cry 4 Special Edition
19 FINAL FANTASY XIV: A Realm Reborn
20 Injustice: Gods Among Us Ultimate Edition

http://victordima.net/2015/08/07/playstation-store-july-2015s-top-sellers-us/

 

Roronaa_chan said:
Why would XB1 be up YOY in 2016? Maybe it'll be in the first few months but then it won't keep up.

Slim Version with dieshrink and pricecut
Also games...



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endy.G said:

 

Roronaa_chan said:
Why would XB1 be up YOY in 2016? Maybe it'll be in the first few months but then it won't keep up.

Slim Version with dieshrink and pricecut
Also games...



And PS4 will be cheaper too (after keeping launch price for so long), which will eat away X1 sales.

X1 Games for HW movement: 2015 > 2016. It'll sell more in Oct-Dec 2015 than it will in Sept-Dec 2016, that alone already makes the YOY task difficult.

Barring a month where something special might happen (big price cut with no response), i'm pretty sure PS4 will win every NPD in 2016, including the holidays.



Roronaa_chan said:
endy.G said:


And PS4 will be cheaper too (after keeping launch price for so long), which will eat away X1 sales.

X1 Games for HW movement: 2015 > 2016. It'll sell more in Oct-Dec 2015 than it will in Sept-Dec 2016, that alone already makes the YOY task difficult.

Barring a month where something special might happen (big price cut with no response), i'm pretty sure PS4 will win every NPD in 2016, including the holidays.


PS4 will be up YoY, too but they won't eat XB1 sales away. At least not like you expect.

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015
Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

bold prediction, that will probably not happen ;)



endy.G said:

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015

Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

 

Most of those games will do nothing though, this isn't about line up quality. Halo 5 and a main Forza are bigger than that whole group of games. This holiday is bigger than next year's.



Roronaa_chan said:
endy.G said:

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015

Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

 

Most of those games will do nothing though, this isn't about line up quality. Halo 5 and a main Forza are bigger than that whole group of games. This holiday is bigger than next year's.

so xb1 will easily beat last year holiday because of halo5?
3m+ for october - december npd!

 

2016 holiday season will still be bigger than this year, because of the xbox one slim edition with 1tb for 299$ or less



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endy.G said:


PS4 will be up YoY, too but they won't eat XB1 sales away. At least not like you expect.

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015
Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

bold prediction, that will probably not happen ;)

If I had to guess at this point I'd say that 5 or maybe even 6 games on this 2016 list will only sell in the range of 1 million units (at best).



DerNebel said:
endy.G said:


PS4 will be up YoY, too but they won't eat XB1 sales away. At least not like you expect.

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015
Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

bold prediction, that will probably not happen ;)

If I had to guess at this point I'd say that 5 or maybe even 6 games on this 2016 list will only sell in the range of 1 million units (at best).

sure. Recore and Scalebound won't sell much units.
But maybe they will attract a different and new audience, that will buy and xbox 1 to buy those games.

 

the selling power of halo in the holiday vs the full 2016 lineup over the whole year. thats the question.
but as i said. that is juts one point. the bigger impact will be a slim version and a new pricepoint



Roronaa_chan said:
Why would XB1 be up YOY in 2016? Maybe it'll be in the first few months but then it won't keep up.

Sales momentum from its biggest holiday lineup thus far. The effect of Halo, Starwars and Fallout hardware boost won't dissapear overnight. Followed by a potentially superior 2016 line up, for Q1/spring at least. Will have to see what becomes of the rest of 2016. And the likely hood of another permanent price cut, new SKU, potentially next gen exclusive COD...

Theres a lot of reasons why it would be up YOY in 2016, its not garunteed but I see it as likely. I don't see why 2015 should be be its peak when the 1st half of year only had 2 big systems sellers (Batman, Witcher... arguably battlefield) and the system is still above $299.

Halo 5 is of course massive but a cheaper Xbox with a halo with a massive library of games will likely have a bigger holiday. I don't believe 360 peaked when Halo 3 was released. 



endy.G said:
DerNebel said:
endy.G said:


PS4 will be up YoY, too but they won't eat XB1 sales away. At least not like you expect.

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015
Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

bold prediction, that will probably not happen ;)

If I had to guess at this point I'd say that 5 or maybe even 6 games on this 2016 list will only sell in the range of 1 million units (at best).

sure. Recore and Scalebound won't sell much units.
But maybe they will attract a different and new audience, that will buy and xbox 1 to buy those games.

 

the selling power of halo in the holiday vs the full 2016 lineup over the whole year. thats the question.
but as i said. that is juts one point. the bigger impact will be a slim version and a new pricepoint

Sure, I can acknowledge that a pricecut would have a way more significant impact than most of those games.

Btw. I was talking about Scalebound, Recore, Crackdown, Forza Horizon 2, Quantum Break and Sea of Thieves (or is this game free 2 play? I'm not sure)

Some could go higher, up to maybe 1.5 million or so, but I'd honestly be surprised if one of those games hit 2 million on X1.



teigaga said:

 potentially exclusive COD...

 


There's no potential for anexclusive COD to any platform lol. And Sony has CoD marketing rights for the foreseeable future.