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Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U hardware estimates up

Damn, Wii U is done.

Will probably be lucky to hit 15m now.



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tokilamockingbrd said:
NewGuy said:
What was the PS4 - XBone gap going into last November? I think it's at ~810K now.


I want to say it peak at a little over 1 million. So essentially at the end of September 2015 we will be pretty close to where we were end of Sep 2014,. PS4 still no price drop.


Thanks

ZhugeEX said:
JRPGfan said:
About a 30,000 sales differnces only between Xbox One and PS4.
Gap between the PS4 and Xbox One, is around 820,000.


The gap is ~800k

 

Not that it matters too much. 

I know you're apparently the numbers guy, so is the above gap correct? Seems right. If so, I think the gap this year will be a tad smaller going into November.

However, I think Sony will be more aggressive. I see no price cuts this holiday, but I do see Black Friday promotions, with bundled games and temp price cuts. Sony won't do a price cut for 6-8 weeks like MS did last holiday, maybe one for BF/Cyber Monday weekend and one for Xmas week.



MoHasanie said:
teigaga said:
Will be up YOY easily, presumably 2016 will be Xbox's peak.


I always expected 2015 to be the peak year but you're right, it will probably be 2016. 


unless something kinect like happend again, yes
2016 should be the peak year



Why would XB1 be up YOY in 2016? Maybe it'll be in the first few months but then it won't keep up.



Protendo said:
NobleTeam360 said:
Destiny in the top 10 and did the best on Xbox One. Surprising. Anyway, congrats to Sony on another month on top.


Why is it suprising? PSN had Destiny on sale digitally for a good chunk of the time. Buy the deluxe version on sale for $35 or spend more physically.

Destiny sold poorly digital in July

PS4 Games:
 1 Journey
2 Bastion
3 Batman: Arkham Knight
4 Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition
5 The Elder Scrolls Online: Tamriel Unlimited
6 Borderlands: The Handsome Collection
7 God of War III Remastered
8 Grand Theft Auto V
9 EA SPORTS Rory McIlroy PGA TOUR
10 EA SPORTS UFC
11 Mortal Kombat X
12 DRIVECLUB
13 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
14 J-STARS Victory VS+
15 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
16 Wolfenstein: The Old Blood
17 Transistor
18 Devil May Cry 4 Special Edition
19 FINAL FANTASY XIV: A Realm Reborn
20 Injustice: Gods Among Us Ultimate Edition

http://victordima.net/2015/08/07/playstation-store-july-2015s-top-sellers-us/

 

Roronaa_chan said:
Why would XB1 be up YOY in 2016? Maybe it'll be in the first few months but then it won't keep up.

Slim Version with dieshrink and pricecut
Also games...



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endy.G said:

 

Roronaa_chan said:
Why would XB1 be up YOY in 2016? Maybe it'll be in the first few months but then it won't keep up.

Slim Version with dieshrink and pricecut
Also games...



And PS4 will be cheaper too (after keeping launch price for so long), which will eat away X1 sales.

X1 Games for HW movement: 2015 > 2016. It'll sell more in Oct-Dec 2015 than it will in Sept-Dec 2016, that alone already makes the YOY task difficult.

Barring a month where something special might happen (big price cut with no response), i'm pretty sure PS4 will win every NPD in 2016, including the holidays.



Roronaa_chan said:
endy.G said:


And PS4 will be cheaper too (after keeping launch price for so long), which will eat away X1 sales.

X1 Games for HW movement: 2015 > 2016. It'll sell more in Oct-Dec 2015 than it will in Sept-Dec 2016, that alone already makes the YOY task difficult.

Barring a month where something special might happen (big price cut with no response), i'm pretty sure PS4 will win every NPD in 2016, including the holidays.


PS4 will be up YoY, too but they won't eat XB1 sales away. At least not like you expect.

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015
Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

bold prediction, that will probably not happen ;)



endy.G said:

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015

Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

 

Most of those games will do nothing though, this isn't about line up quality. Halo 5 and a main Forza are bigger than that whole group of games. This holiday is bigger than next year's.



Roronaa_chan said:
endy.G said:

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015

Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

 

Most of those games will do nothing though, this isn't about line up quality. Halo 5 and a main Forza are bigger than that whole group of games. This holiday is bigger than next year's.

so xb1 will easily beat last year holiday because of halo5?
3m+ for october - december npd!

 

2016 holiday season will still be bigger than this year, because of the xbox one slim edition with 1tb for 299$ or less



endy.G said:


PS4 will be up YoY, too but they won't eat XB1 sales away. At least not like you expect.

And the XB1 game lineup for 2016 is even bigger than 2015
Gears4, Crackdown3, Scalebound, Sea of Thiefs, QuantumBreak, HaloWars 2, Forza Horizon 2, Recore + possible unanounced games
vs. Halo5, Forza6, TombRaider, Gears Remaster, Rare Replay, Fable

 

bold prediction, that will probably not happen ;)

If I had to guess at this point I'd say that 5 or maybe even 6 games on this 2016 list will only sell in the range of 1 million units (at best).