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Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U hardware estimates up

CosmicSex said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Indeed, PS4 will sell much less than PS2, 360, and Wii in the US. much less. much, much, and again... much.


If the PS4 sells more than the PS3 in the US (which seems very very possible) then it will acheive what no other console will in the US this gen.  That is to outsell its predecessor. 

Ok, your right, but we talk about PS4 to top console like 360, Wii, or PS2. The PS3 USA sales are currently 26.3 million in the US, PS4 will easy beat this, but the 40M mark is not gonna happen.



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Ryng_Tolu said:
NewGuy said:

I wouldn't be so sure about that. PS2 and 360 sold more LTD in the US than the Wii did.

Indeed, PS4 will sell much less than PS2, 360, and Wii in the US. much less. much, much, and again... much.

You must be psychic. Can you tell me the lottery numbers?

I still remember back in 2006-10 when people kept saying the Wii was gonna blow past the PS2 LTD in the US and WW (didn't even make it past the PS1)

Then in 2011-14 people kept saying no way the 360 would outsell the Wii in the US (it has outsold it)



binary solo said:
NewGuy said:

I wouldn't be so sure about that. PS2 and 360 sold more LTD in the US than the Wii did.

Yes, I'm not even sure why PS4/Wii for the USA is even a thing, since the generation winner in the USA was 360 if there's going to be a graph it should be PS4 vs 360. I expect PS4 to fall short of the 360, btw. Every million Xb one sells over 26 million (PS3's USA level) is a million less than PS4 will sell compared to 360. If Xb one hits 30 million in the USA then PS4 will fall short of Wii most likely. If Xb one sells less than 30 million PS4 should reach or pass Wii. 


Indeed. The bar for the PS4 to beat in the US from last generation is the 360. The bar to be beaten LTD is either the PS2 or the 360 (whichever sold more). Ryng_Tolu is a big Nintendo fan, so that's fine that he likes to make the Wii looks like this unbeatable beast, but I would personally prefer a chart of PS4 vs PS2 vs 360 (when talking about US sales).



CosmicSex said:
So in the last 2 months, PS4 has gained 100k over the Xbox One.
That could be whipped out in one week during the holiday, but with nearly a 1 million unit advantage the prospect of passing the PS4 this holiday seems really unlikely.
And with September guaranteed to be big for the PS4, it seems like this generation in the USA will be one where the PS4 is just out of reach.

ANd thats without a price cut, lets say xbox completely erases the gap because of no price cut, starting early next year uncharted, SF5, and ratchet would start creating a gap once more. looks like it will just be a cycle of xbox always closing the gap and ps4 grwoing the gap.



NewGuy said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Indeed, PS4 will sell much less than PS2, 360, and Wii in the US. much less. much, much, and again... much.

You must be psychic. Can you tell me the lottery numbers?

I still remember back in 2006-10 when people kept saying the Wii was gonna blow past the PS2 LTD in the US and WW (didn't even make it past the PS1)

Then in 2011-14 people kept saying no way the 360 would outsell the Wii in the US (it has outsold it)


It was fairly clear Wii was never going to outsell PS2. The thing had the early advantage of being VERY cheap especially when compared to the competition, which meant less room for price drops, an element that affects legs tremendously. Its capabilities were extremely outdated, which also affected its lifespan. The Wii wasn't THAT appealing to core gamers for this reason and a few others.

"Wii surpassing PS2" was nearly as poorly-thought as confidentally believing PS4 has no chance coming close to the Wii but some people just never learn man.

I personally predict PS4 to land at 38 million in the US. 5 million more/less is not impossible at all.



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Kyuu said:
NewGuy said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Indeed, PS4 will sell much less than PS2, 360, and Wii in the US. much less. much, much, and again... much.

You must be psychic. Can you tell me the lottery numbers?

I still remember back in 2006-10 when people kept saying the Wii was gonna blow past the PS2 LTD in the US and WW (didn't even make it past the PS1)

Then in 2011-14 people kept saying no way the 360 would outsell the Wii in the US (it has outsold it)


It was fairly clear Wii was never going to outsell PS2. The thing had the early advantage of being VERY cheap especially when compared to the competition, which meant less room for price drops, an element that affects legs tremendously. Its capabilities were extremely outdated, which also affected its lifespan. The Wii wasn't THAT appealing to core gamers for this reason and a few others.

"Wii surpassing PS2" was nearly as poorly-thought as confidentally believing PS4 has no chance coming close to the Wii but some people just never learn man.

I personally predict PS4 to land at 38 million in the US. 5 million more/less is not impossible at all.

I'm ok with this, but just for know, how do you expect all year? i know many people wan't used this metology for predict, but that's obligatory for predict the lifetime sales for a console.



Kyuu said:
NewGuy said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Indeed, PS4 will sell much less than PS2, 360, and Wii in the US. much less. much, much, and again... much.

You must be psychic. Can you tell me the lottery numbers?

I still remember back in 2006-10 when people kept saying the Wii was gonna blow past the PS2 LTD in the US and WW (didn't even make it past the PS1)

Then in 2011-14 people kept saying no way the 360 would outsell the Wii in the US (it has outsold it)


It was fairly clear Wii was never going to outsell PS2. The thing had the early advantage of being VERY cheap especially when compared to the competition, which meant less room for price drops, an element that affects legs tremendously. Its capabilities were extremely outdated, which also affected its lifespan. The Wii wasn't THAT appealing to core gamers for this reason and a few others.

"Wii surpassing PS2" was nearly as poorly-thought as confidentally believing PS4 has no chance coming close to the Wii but some people just never learn man.

I personally predict PS4 to land at 38 million in the US. 5 million more/less is not impossible at all.

You must not have been around or lurked around 2006-2010 then. Here, on neogaf, or other sites. I have always lurked and I distinctively remember on gaf as it was a "foregone conclusion" and some threads here, including this dude forecasting the wii to sell 200 or 300 million LTD (or was it 500 million?). Not sure right now but it was some insane number like that. The hype was real back then. To be fair though, with good reason, Wii was doing november and december numbers in June. 



Nice to see a close battle between PS4 and XB1, this is healthy. 3DS is still doing nice, especially given its age, but Wii U on the other hand is a bit disappointing.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Graph time!



The PS4 is finally up YoY... by only 0.225%. The XBO is up YoY by 19.82%, up from 16.9%.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Splatoon officially not a system seller. Nintendo's E3 damaged WiiU beyond repair it seems.