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Forums - Movies & TV - Fantastic 4 on its way to bombing this weekend! 27-30 million is predicted...

This movie bombed and it deserved it. Not even international box office is going to save it. It was a fricking mess, I don't think the original tone of the movie was perfect, but it was ok up until the thid act. That ruined everything. Fox ruined the few things Fant4stic was doing ok.



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thismeintiel said:
binary solo said:
thismeintiel said:
binary solo said:

But in terms of how bad the movie is, it deserves a box office something more like Gigli. The fact it might end up with $50 million world wide in its first weekend is too good for it.

F4 is benefiting from the Marvel hype even though it isn't associated with the MCU in any way, other than coming from the same source universe, which only comic book fans really know. To put it bluntly, I reckon this movie would have got 1/2 what it looks like getting if the MCU series of movies didn't exist.

Interesting that boxoffice mojo was predicitng $45 million before Friday numbers rolled in.

Oh, you could tell they were really pushing for that, too.  They made sure the big Marvel logo was the first thing you see in every trailer.  Hoping to piggyback off the Avengers, no doubt. 

Unfortunately, it seems Marvel tried to do that themselves with the Ant-Man movie.  All trailers I have seen just make that look like a mediocre movie.  It definitely isn't making Marvel any money, at least not til it releases on DVD/Bluray.  Probably break even at the box office when all is said and done.  Marvel just needs to be careful of not flooding the theatres with cheap movies that don't exactly respect the source material, just trying to make a quick buck on the name.  Otherwise the hype will die for the superhero genre.  I don't think they will do that, but man, are other studios trying to.

No way man. Ant-Man is already well past break even. Marvel/Disney was smart enough to have modest expectations for it, so they gave it the lowest budget out of all MCU movies to date. That means it got past break even at about the $260 million point, and now Ant-Man is over $300 million with a few more weeks of reasonable box office receipts to go. I think the box office taking should give Disney about $30-50 million in profit.According to the industry rule of thum Dosney's already profited about $15 million from Ant-Man. So they've made over 10% return, not bad.

No it hasn't.  They are only seeing about 55% or so (maybe lower for foreign markets) from the reciepts.  And that is only for the first few weeks, then the percentage begins to drop.  Add in marketing budget and there is no way they are break even on a filming budget of $130M with ~$165M from ticket revenue.  Probably closing in on it, but trust me, they were hoping that movie did better.  Not sure we'll see an Ant-Man 2.

It's even worse when you compare it to something that had even less name recognition and a little higher budget ($170M), Guardians of the Galaxy.  It went on to make $774M WW, so they probably took home ~$425M, or $255M profit.  They aren't seeing any kind of return like that with Ant-Man.

The 55% rule applies to the worldwide gross, there's no reason to think the studio is getting less from non-US box office, indeed with less clout smaller companies in smaller countries possibly have to pay more. The 55% rule of thumb already factors in diminishing returns over several weeks. So the first 2 weeks the % for the studio is higher. It's not always the case but typically the production budget includes promotion.

"Even though specific numbers are hard to nail down, we have a good idea where studios spend their money. A film's production budget includes all costs incurred during pre-production, filming, post-production and promotion. That includes buying the rights to the script, actor's salaries, production staff salaries, set construction, special effects, wardrobe, craft services, marketing, dog training -- everything!"  http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/movie-cost1.htm

So applying the 55% rule for worldwide gross ($300 million without this weekend taken into account) means $165 million for Marvel/Disney so far.  So that should mean profit.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

I want it to bomb even worse, in a way Fox will be left with no option other than returning the rights to Marvel so we can get Avengers x Galactus and Doctor Doom.

TheGoldenBoy said:

@bolded: Exactly. I think it honestly did much better than expected. I was expecting much worse until reviews said it was actually a good movie. 

You can look at this thread and already see a few people using this movie as "evidence" to support the idea that superhero movies are going to decline soon.

Ppl used the fact that Avengers 2 didnt make 2 billion as an "evidence" of the super hero decline lol, theyll use anything to suit theyre agenda. Batman x Superman and Captain America Civil War will completly debunk any clains fo a decline tough.



Big fan of Fantastic Four. Not really the comics / cartoons, but the previous two movies were fun with great characters.

I knew the reboot would be a dud the second they made the cast younger and had the Chronicle guy behind it. Also, cant stand fucking Kate Mara.

Franchise is done for now.



DakonBlackblade said:

I want it to bomb even worse, in a way Fox will be left with no option other than returning the rights to Marvel so we can get Avengers x Galactus and Doctor Doom.

TheGoldenBoy said:

@bolded: Exactly. I think it honestly did much better than expected. I was expecting much worse until reviews said it was actually a good movie. 

You can look at this thread and already see a few people using this movie as "evidence" to support the idea that superhero movies are going to decline soon.

Ppl used the fact that Avengers 2 didnt make 2 billion as an "evidence" of the super hero decline lol, theyll use anything to suit theyre agenda. Batman x Superman and Captain America Civil War will completly debunk any clains fo a decline tough.

Yeah, I've seen that argument being used as well. It's pretty fucking hilarious. I mean Avengers 2 is only the sixth highest grossing film of all-time (w/o adjusting for inflation), so that definitely means it's on a decline



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Chris Hu said:
onionberry said:
is the movie really that bad? for me it's a no go because I can't stand Michael B. Jordan nor Miles Teller.


Never seen anything with Miles Teller in it but Michael B. Jordan was pretty good in Fruitvale Station.


I saw that movie with zack efron, and after that I can't stand him lol



26.2 million final estimate. A disaster.



spurgeonryan said:
LemonSlice said:
26.2 million final estimate. A disaster.


So what are we thinking? 240 million from overseas just to break even?

At 122 mil budget yeah. But even China has standards, though really bad movies have flown before.



LuckyTrouble said:
I would rather have a dozen decent superhero movies than have Hollywood attempt to be original anymore. Their current idea of originality is making sequels to 20 year old movies, while on the side, they maintain the idea of rebooting things that don't need rebooting. After movies have continued to evolve for over 100 years from their humble beginnings, we're hitting the point where it's hard as hell to produce something we see as original that we don't also see as crap.


Inside Out says suck my script!  Hollywood can still be original and captivatiing at the same time if it fucking tries !!!



LemonSlice said:
spurgeonryan said:


So what are we thinking? 240 million from overseas just to break even?

At 122 mil budget yeah. But even China has standards, though really bad movies have flown before.

Seems like these days marketing budget is not included in that production budget number, unlik in the past apparently. So the total cost will be well above $120 million. And apparently China only lets 25% of box office gross leave the country, so that slashes the % accruing to the stodio down to about 40%. All that probably adds up to the movie needing to do over $300 million at the foreign box office to try to break even. It's getting to be that break even point for a movie with a $130ish million production budget has a break even point of about $400 million worldwide gross when marketing costs are added. This is getting worse than AAA games in terms of ticket sales needed to break even. It won't be long before big budget movies won't be profitable with grosses below $1/2 a billion. Crazyness man!



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix