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Forums - Sales Discussion - Halo 5 Sales Predictions.

 

Halo 5 sales predictions

Under 6 million 111 26.24%
 
6-8 million 142 33.57%
 
9-10 million 96 22.70%
 
11-12 million 35 8.27%
 
13-14 million 3 0.71%
 
15 million+ 36 8.51%
 
Total:423
Skullwaker on 03 July 2015

FW: 2.5m
LT: 9m

But I also think it depends on when MS drops Halo 6.



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FloatingWaffles on 03 July 2015

I think first week it will do 2.5-3 Million easily because it's Halo, maybe even more.

Lifetime: 9.5-10 million.




Angelv577 on 03 July 2015
super6646 said:
Ruler said:
bouzane said:


So the XBONE isn't going to sell a single additional unit moving forward restricting Halo 5? No offense but I swear that nobody bothers to learn anything about sales on this forum (which would be fine if not for the very nature of this site). By your logic it was impossible for Gran Turismo 3 to sell 15 million units on such a tiny userbase at launch. The thing is though, the PS2 kept selling after GT3 was released. It's funny how that works isn't it?

Yeah but the xbox probably will sell 30 million max, for 10 million halos 30% should have bought it.

 

30 million seems WAY to low for the XB1. The only way that could happen is if the XB1 stops being sold in 2016. And I estimate a predecessor will come around 2019, and its discontinued 2021-2022. I see 100 million much more likely than only 30 million (though both are unrealistic).

You know that xbox one will be lucky to even hit 50m-60m right?  Just look at the Europe chartz for last gen, compute the ratio between ps3 and 360 and then compare that to the ratio this gen.  It will be almost impossible for it to even match xb360.  this is Europe alone.  If you take into consideration that ps4 is ahead in US whereas xbox 360 manage to outsell ps3 for around 15m, even if xbox one manage to catch ps4, the difference LT won't be as dramatic as last gen and again, more marketshare eaten.  Just because xbox one is ahead of xbox 360, doesn't mean it will outsell xbox 360.  xb360 had a lot of factors goin on for it at the second half of last gen that xb1 will be lucky to have like for example kinect which gave the 360 a huge push and a second breath.



Rafie on 03 July 2015

6-8 million easily for me.



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bouzane on 03 July 2015
pitzy272 said:
bouzane said:


So the XBONE isn't going to sell a single additional unit moving forward restricting Halo 5? No offense but I swear that nobody bothers to learn anything about sales on this forum (which would be fine if not for the very nature of this site). By your logic it was impossible for Gran Turismo 3 to sell 15 million units on such a tiny userbase at launch. The thing is though, the PS2 kept selling after GT3 was released. It's funny how that works isn't it?


Haha easy there guy. Read into my message a little. My point is the lowish sales of the XBO. I'm fully aware of how sales work, but ppl are predicting sales close to Halo 3 levels. Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world (also, as an aside, Halo 3 released when halo was at it's peak. It is no longer peaking). Peoples predictions involve an expectation for, in my opinion, an unreasonable attach ratio. XBO, following it's current sales rate, will likely be at around 30mill in 2-2.5yrs. After this period of time, u would expect halo to be at least approaching it's LT sales number. So 10mill would mean a 30% attach ratio. Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio? If so, I will stand, corrected. 

Also, your GT3 comparison is flawed, again due to the popularity issue. Sure, it's possible for some games to sell more than their predecessors despite a smaller user base, but it has to involve an attach ratio within reason.

For the record, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but responding so arrogantly tends to make ppl look bad especially when it turns out they misunderstood the other poster's message. 


"Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world"

Halo 3 released on a console that had sold less than 12 million units.

"Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio?"

Halo 3 achieved a 32% attach ratio in its first week on the market and 43% by New Year's.

Edit:

By the end of 2009 (the equivalent of 2017 for the ONE) Halo 3 was at 10.5 million and the 360 was at 37.4 million which is 28%.

If the ONE stands at 32 million by the end of 2017 (conservative estimate) a 28% attach ratio would result in 9 million sales for Halo 5.

I responded arrogantly because I used the data available on this site coupled with a bit of historical precedent to make an informed estimate and I scoff at anybody who disagrees. That's right, I scoff at these ridiculous 6-8 million predictions :P



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Playstation_prophet on 03 July 2015

10 million. Every single person who owns a Xbox One buys a copy.



bouzane on 04 July 2015
BMaker11 said:
bouzane said:


So the XBONE isn't going to sell a single additional unit moving forward restricting Halo 5? No offense but I swear that nobody bothers to learn anything about sales on this forum (which would be fine if not for the very nature of this site). By your logic it was impossible for Gran Turismo 3 to sell 15 million units on such a tiny userbase at launch. The thing is though, the PS2 kept selling after GT3 was released. It's funny how that works isn't it?

When the XBOne doesn't sell anywhere else in the world, and the only way it stay competitive even on its home turf if by heavy discounts and bundling games for free (i.e. a practice that is not sustainable), that puts a hard ceiling on XBOne's total sales. Yea, it'll continue to sale in the coming years, but not a lot. And people aren't gonna be buying Halo 5, new, this time next year. Your GT3 example is flawed because the PS2 actually blew up in sales. Same can't be said for XBOne


My Gran Turismo example wasn't meant to be a perfect comparison. I was mearly pointing out the fact that the ONE's current userbase isn't going to be a hard limit for Halo 5's lifetime sales just as the 360 didn't limit Halo 3. That being said, considering Halo's front loaded nature I should have focused on another point.

When Halo 3 launched the 360 had only sold 12 million units whereas the ONE has already surpassed that total. After three months on the market Halo 3 was owned by 43% of 360 users and if Halo 5 accomplishes similar numbers it will easily beat a lot of the predictions in this thread. I'm not denying that the ONE is going to be significantly less popular than the 360 in the end and I'm certainly not saying that Halo 5 is going to be as successful as 3 (or reach a 43% attach ratio for that matter). It's just that the ONE will in no way hinder Halo 5's sales and only critical reception and potential franchise fatigue will influence the outcome.



mymuro on 04 July 2015

2.8 - 3.2M FW
8.8M -9.5M LT

But there is no doubt it'll outsell the hell of Uncharted 4.



super6646 on 04 July 2015
bouzane said:
BMaker11 said:

When the XBOne doesn't sell anywhere else in the world, and the only way it stay competitive even on its home turf if by heavy discounts and bundling games for free (i.e. a practice that is not sustainable), that puts a hard ceiling on XBOne's total sales. Yea, it'll continue to sale in the coming years, but not a lot. And people aren't gonna be buying Halo 5, new, this time next year. Your GT3 example is flawed because the PS2 actually blew up in sales. Same can't be said for XBOne


My Gran Turismo example wasn't meant to be a perfect comparison. I was mearly pointing out the fact that the ONE's current userbase isn't going to be a hard limit for Halo 5's lifetime sales just as the 360 didn't limit Halo 3. That being said, considering Halo's front loaded nature I should have focused on another point.

When Halo 3 launched the 360 had only sold 12 million units whereas the ONE has already surpassed that total. After three months on the market Halo 3 was owned by 43% of 360 users and if Halo 5 accomplishes similar numbers it will easily beat a lot of the predictions in this thread. I'm not denying that the ONE is going to be significantly less popular than the 360 in the end and I'm certainly not saying that Halo 5 is going to be as successful as 3 (or reach a 43% attach ratio for that matter). It's just that the ONE will in no way hinder Halo 5's sales and only critical reception and potential franchise fatigue will influence the outcome.


I agree with almost everything, expect your sales numbers for the XB1. I could see it much higher, and I know that sounds unlikely, but so was the XB1 winning the April NPD.



pitzy272 on 04 July 2015
super6646 said:
pitzy272 said:


Haha easy there guy. Read into my message a little. My point is the lowish sales of the XBO. I'm fully aware of how sales work, but ppl are predicting sales close to Halo 3 levels. Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world (also, as an aside, Halo 3 released when halo was at it's peak. It is no longer peaking). Peoples predictions involve an expectation for, in my opinion, an unreasonable attach ratio. XBO, following it's current sales rate, will likely be at around 30mill in 2-2.5yrs. After this period of time, u would expect halo to be at least approaching it's LT sales number. So 10mill would mean a 30% attach ratio. Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio? If so, I will stand, corrected. 

Also, your GT3 comparison is flawed, again due to the popularity issue. Sure, it's possible for some games to sell more than their predecessors despite a smaller user base, but it has to involve an attach ratio within reason.

For the record, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but responding caustically tends to get negative responses. As seen in posts other than just mine. 


What? Your expecting the XB1 to reach 30 million LT, or in a few years? It'll probably be past 30 million by holiday 2016. It'll still have another 2-3 years before a successor, and it'll still sell quite a bit until its discontinued.


Haha no no no. Reread my message my friend. I said halo would likely be at least approaching it's LT sales after 2-2.5yrs. I said the XBO would likely be around 30mill in 2-2.5yrs. I was just guesstimating based off sales to date. Could be more.