Halo 5 Sales Predictions.

[bouzane]

pitzy272 said:

bouzane said:

So the XBONE isn't going to sell a single additional unit moving forward restricting Halo 5? No offense but I swear that nobody bothers to learn anything about sales on this forum (which would be fine if not for the very nature of this site). By your logic it was impossible for Gran Turismo 3 to sell 15 million units on such a tiny userbase at launch. The thing is though, the PS2 kept selling after GT3 was released. It's funny how that works isn't it?

Haha easy there guy. Read into my message a little. My point is the lowish sales of the XBO. I'm fully aware of how sales work, but ppl are predicting sales close to Halo 3 levels. Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world (also, as an aside, Halo 3 released when halo was at it's peak. It is no longer peaking). Peoples predictions involve an expectation for, in my opinion, an unreasonable attach ratio. XBO, following it's current sales rate, will likely be at around 30mill in 2-2.5yrs. After this period of time, u would expect halo to be at least approaching it's LT sales number. So 10mill would mean a 30% attach ratio. Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio? If so, I will stand, corrected. 

Also, your GT3 comparison is flawed, again due to the popularity issue. Sure, it's possible for some games to sell more than their predecessors despite a smaller user base, but it has to involve an attach ratio within reason.

For the record, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but responding so arrogantly tends to make ppl look bad especially when it turns out they misunderstood the other poster's message. 

"Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world"

Halo 3 released on a console that had sold less than 12 million units.

"Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio?"

Halo 3 achieved a 32% attach ratio in its first week on the market and 43% by New Year's.

Edit:

By the end of 2009 (the equivalent of 2017 for the ONE) Halo 3 was at 10.5 million and the 360 was at 37.4 million which is 28%.

If the ONE stands at 32 million by the end of 2017 (conservative estimate) a 28% attach ratio would result in 9 million sales for Halo 5.

I responded arrogantly because I used the data available on this site coupled with a bit of historical precedent to make an informed estimate and I scoff at anybody who disagrees. That's right, I scoff at these ridiculous 6-8 million predictions :P