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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ethomaz's Japan Sales Trending Prediction For 2015 (373,286 For PS4 1.5m)

Aerys on 30 June 2015
Sharu said:
Aerys said:

Thé game is in Square Enix planning for 2015 fiscal year

Ok, at last! (Still don't believe it will come that early). ))

Its crazy i Know but it seems its finally coming at last ! An other proof : they begin thé marketing of thé game for Gamescom until its release, its something you do when thé game is coming in less than 1 year



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

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ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:

I believe in a pricedrop in September with metal Gear, and i expect PS4 to sell in September nearly equal to December... around 70k the week of Metal Gear+pricedrop, after that PS4 will dropped at 30k the second week of September, and by October PS4 will be above 15k but under 20k (maybe above those numbers with a game release)... November in Japan is not big like in Europe ( for not even talk about US ) , it will be at +20k in November for all week i think, so, between 80k and 100k in November.

That's should mean:

Sep: 150k - 180k

Oct: 60k - 80k

Nov: 80k - 100k

Dec: 170k - 200k

 

The PS4 is currently at some like 550k for this year, agreed? with 10k basis and the boost it should be at 700k-750k by end of Agust, so, 700k/750k + 460k/560k = 1.16m / 1.31m

 

I have PS4 at 1.25 million this year... 1.5 million is possible as well if will have a strong December, just i don't think will happen.

I expect 70k to be only MGSV LE bundles...



Ryng on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

I believe in a pricedrop in September with metal Gear, and i expect PS4 to sell in September nearly equal to December... around 70k the week of Metal Gear+pricedrop, after that PS4 will dropped at 30k the second week of September, and by October PS4 will be above 15k but under 20k (maybe above those numbers with a game release)... November in Japan is not big like in Europe ( for not even talk about US ) , it will be at +20k in November for all week i think, so, between 80k and 100k in November.

That's should mean:

Sep: 150k - 180k

Oct: 60k - 80k

Nov: 80k - 100k

Dec: 170k - 200k

 

The PS4 is currently at some like 550k for this year, agreed? with 10k basis and the boost it should be at 700k-750k by end of Agust, so, 700k/750k + 460k/560k = 1.16m / 1.31m

 

I have PS4 at 1.25 million this year... 1.5 million is possible as well if will have a strong December, just i don't think will happen.

I expect 70k to be only MGSV LE bundles...

Will be huge for sure, but i don't know... i expect 50k for the PS4 limited, and other 20k for the other PS4 SKUs.

100k is possible maybe... but after that week, the PS4 will dropped like a rock for sure. 50% dropped in the best scenario, maybe even 80%.

 

See Destiny:

6 september: 7,299

13 september: 22,213 ( +205% )

20 september: 8,939 ( -60% )



Sharu on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Sharu said:

So first 8 weeks in 2014 PS4 sold 309k
And 8 weeks in 2015 how much was that?

No. One week in 2014 PS4 did 309k (launch week)... it was released in Feb 2014 in Japan... it breaks my graph because 309k makes the others week numbers really small in the graph that why I started at Week 9 (the second week of PS4 in Japan).

These are the numbers for PS4 excluding the launch period.

2014: 202.427
2015: 313.887

Ok, need to comeback later. As I see, current difference (25 weeks) is 45k. From week 9 till 25 PS4 sold 111k units more in 2015, which is around 6.5 k per week in average (i counted for 17 weeks), thats including Bloodborn weeks which was quite big.
 
Total difference on week 25 is 46k. (down YOY). So if the trend contitnues Ps4 will catch up 2014 in around 7 weeks. So starting from week 32 it should be YOY up or around the same as 2014. Need to look on this thread then, in 1.5 months. :)



ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:

Will be huge for sure, but i don't know... i expect 50k for the PS4 limited, and other 20k for the other PS4 SKUs.

100k is possible maybe... but after that week, the PS4 will dropped like a rock for sure. 50% dropped in the best scenario, maybe even 80%.

 

See Destiny:

6 september: 7,299

13 september: 22,213 ( +205% )

20 september: 8,939 ( -60% )

Destiny is not a good example for Japan :D



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benao87 on 30 June 2015

Are you going to stick with it, or are you going to ignore the thread should your prediction go wrong, like this one:

I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)



Complete comic

Ryng on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

Will be huge for sure, but i don't know... i expect 50k for the PS4 limited, and other 20k for the other PS4 SKUs.

100k is possible maybe... but after that week, the PS4 will dropped like a rock for sure. 50% dropped in the best scenario, maybe even 80%.

 

See Destiny:

6 september: 7,299

13 september: 22,213 ( +205% )

20 september: 8,939 ( -60% )

Destiny is not a good example for Japan :D

Well, there is even the week of Dragon Quest bundle xD

6 Dec: 15,971

13 Dec: 68,041 ( +330% )

20 Dec: 30,951 ( -55% )

 

Usually is this for the Japan, after a huge boost, there is always a huge dropped... but can be difference in some situation, like with Wii U and Splatoon:

24 May: 7,611

31 May: 17,713

7 Jun: 21,169

14 Jun: 16,413

21 Jun: 14,616

 

Depend on the games or the bunle. :D



ethomaz on 30 June 2015
benao87 said:

Are you going to stick with it, or are you going to ignore the thread should your prediction go wrong, like this one:

I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

No new numbers was released... the thread is updated with the lasted like all my others thread (I never ignored any thread here).

If you have any new info about you can share in the thread that I will update it.
Or you can go to the future and tell my how much I was wrong.

lol



Ryng on 30 June 2015
benao87 said:

Are you going to stick with it, or are you going to ignore the thread should your prediction go wrong, like this one:

I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

Well, this prediction is absolutely bombed.

But... http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5988195

XB1: 12,000,000

PS4: 19,900,000

Gap: 7,900,000 (shipped)

 

He also said "close to 8m" not "8m". u_u



ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:

Well, this prediction is absolutely bombed.

But... http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5988195

XB1: 12,000,000

PS4: 19,900,000

Gap: 7,900,000 (shipped)

 

He also said "close to 8m" not "8m". u_u

Well it is highly probable my predicion bombed but no body can prove yet because the last know number for PS3 is 80m at Nov. 2013.

About you link my prediction goest off due mainly the Sony's supply issues at early 2014 but you can read the overall result here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6180611

And to be fair after some months I expected a bigger gap then ~8m at end of 2014... Xbone did really better (overshipped) than I expected.

The predicition that I wasted more time and loved to do that was the GT5 10 million (it was so fun): http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=125037

I predictied (and got laugued at the time) at early 2013 Sony shipping ~5m units for PS4 launch... people called me crazy, impossible, etc... Sony did manage to ship 4.5m while these same guys expected 2-3m.

That is the cool about prediction... it is not being right or wrong but discuss the whole situation.

PS. VGC one have the prediction league in the own site (2007-2008).