September alone it will sell twice what it did last year due MGSV bundle... after Sep PS4 will be at 800-900k YTD... so Oct, Nov and Dec will be the key to reach 1.5m.

PS4 won't be below any month this year except for launch (Feb).

Didn't think about PS4 being below last year's numbers, just not 50% above them. What else apart from MGSV is coming to PS4 in japan this fall/holiday season?

Not games

- Price cut (I expect that)

Games

- Sengoku Basara 4 Emperors
- Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
- Sengoku Musou 4: Empires
- Mighty No. 9
- Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book
- Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4
- Saint Seiya: Soldiers' Soul
- God Eater: Resurrection
- Final Fantasy VII International
- Ys
- Gundam Battle Operation NEXT
- Persona 5
- Star Ocean 5: Integrity and Faithlessness

Bundles

- PlayStation 4 Sengoku BASARA 10th Anniversary Edition
- PlayStation 4 Metal Gear Solid V Limited pack THE PHANTOM PAIN EDITION

Etho, can you ask this chartz even for 2013?

Think a little before saying such things.

Right now the ps4 is at 580k for the year (560k if we split the difference with famitsu), the next 8 weeks will be slow summer months with no releases.I can see ps4 sales easily bellow 10k for those weeks, so let's say sales are at 650k starting september.

Then metal gear 5 releases, a game severely overestimated. Metal gear 4 sold 800k ltd on ps3. the home console decline alone would mean MG5 on ps4 would be lucky to reack 600k, but the game also being on ps3 means it should be lucky if it has an ltd of 500k. that would mean a 200-250k first week and maybe a good hardware boost for a week or two, cause most buyers already own the console. I think it can end september with 700k-720k for the year.

October + November sales should push it to 800k for the year, then december numbers similar to those of 2014 would give it around 950k for the whole 2015, maybe 1 million. margin of error means it could be anywhere between 900k and 1.1 million, but nowhere near 1.5 million, or 1.4, or 1.3, and even 1.2 sounds like a HUGE stretch.

You are also underestimating Wii U a lot, since it actually has some releases during summer and is much more likely to get a price drop than ps4, not to mention it has a much bigger holiday boost. with yoshi's wooly world and devil's third releasing, it at least avoids a game drought and can keep stable sales with the help of splatoon legs and updates. Should be easily over 400k starting september. If it gets a pricecut along mario maker, sales can really increse going into holidays with titles like star fox and smt x fire emblem, as well as the smaller ones like animal crossing spin off and mario tennis. I can see sales at 600-650k starting december, and december sales putting it at 800-900k. actually, I think it could be anywhere between 800k and 1 million for 2015.

I thought a lot... if the trend didn't change then PS4 > 15m and Wii U < 750k.

PS4 did 1 million last year tracking way lower than this year (50% less).

Wii U did 600k last year tracking a bit lower than this year (10% less).

playstation 4 had lots of releases in a short period early in the year. next two months will have a game drought + being summer, besides the rest of my post.

PS4 had no big release in Japan yet... they receive western games releases.

PS4 will be up YoY soon even last year having a monster launch week (309k) because it is tracking way ahead what it did last year in a weekly basis comparision.

It is selling ~13-14k per week right now... last year it was 7-8k.

from late february to late march, ps4 had 1-3 relevant releases EVERY WEEK. sales quickly fell after those weeks.

Can you list these relevant release? Because it had none since release.

First being MGSV.