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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ethomaz's Japan Sales Trending Prediction For 2015 (373,286 For PS4 1.5m)

ethomaz on 30 June 2015
katakpisang said:
i predict nintendo hardware>sony hardware

monster hunter x , youkai watch 3 - 3 million seller
animal crossing , youkai buster - 2 million seller
dragon quest 8 - 1 million seller

big win for nintendo for overall hardware and software

Nintendo hardware > Sony hardware you mean Wii U + 3DS > PS4 + PSV?

Because PS4 is already over 2x the sales in Japan than Wii U.

Wii U will never sell in a year what PS4 do in a year in Japan... you can forget that... no matter what big title launchs.



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ethomaz on 30 June 2015

hiska-kun said:

I think you have a wrong way to say you're being optimistic and conservative.

PS4 is already up on weekly basis this year over 50% and more games will be released this year than last year.

These is no way PS4 will do less than 1.5m.

Even with Feb launch (400k units) PS4 will be up this year after July.



ethomaz on 30 June 2015

hallowach said:

thought the same - lol

ps4 will sell 1m + this year
but won't come close to 1.5m

the only next big hitter titel will be mgsV
what about the holiday season? last year sony got the dragon quest bundles

It sold 970k last year doing way lower numbers than this year...

Drangon quest bundles were launched this year... in Febuary.

PS4 didn't have any single big release on holiday last year... unless you count western games like GTA, CoD, AC, etc.



Sharu on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

hallowach said:

thought the same - lol

ps4 will sell 1m + this year
but won't come close to 1.5m

the only next big hitter titel will be mgsV
what about the holiday season? last year sony got the dragon quest bundles

It sold 970k last year doing way lower numbers than this year...

Drangon quest bundles were launched this year... in Febuary.

PS4 didn't have any single big release on holiday last year... unless you count western games like GTA, CoD, AC, etc.

DQquest bundles was released in Japan in December 2014 and it got a decent boost then, if I'm remember correctly. Actual game was out in February 15. 



ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Sharu said:

DQquest bundles was released in Japan in December 2014 and it got a decent boost then, if I'm remember correctly. Actual game was out in February 15.

Ohhhhh ok.

These are the numbers for December by MC.

Week 49: 15.971
Week 50: 68.041
Week 51: 30.951
Week 52: 33.150

Pretty low numbers if you ask me... this year it will do way better... there is no way it will sell only 30k in the last weeks of December.



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hiska-kun on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

hiska-kun said:

I think you have a wrong way to say you're being optimistic and conservative.

PS4 is already up on weekly basis this year over 50% and more games will be released this year than last year.

These is no way PS4 will do less than 1.5m.

Even with Feb launch (400k units) PS4 will be up this year after July.

PS4 YTD 2015 is 566.654 at this monent, less than last year 612.560 (Media Create).

I know more multiplatform games will be released later this year. Now multi games mean that will sell better than PS3 year average (for Japan)?

If 1.5 is your conservative prediction, I don't want to listen the optimistic one

P.D: Dragon Quest Heroes bundles were released in December 2014



Media Create Annual Archive (Spanish version)

http://zonaforo.meristation.com/topic/2246651/

ethomaz on 30 June 2015

hiska-kun said:

PS4 YTD 2015 is 566.654 at this monent, less than last year 612.560 (Media Create).

I know more multiplatform games will be released later this year. Now multi games mean that will sell better than PS3 year average (for Japan)?

If 1.5 is your conservative prediction, I don't want to listen the optimistic one

P.D: Dragon Quest Heroes bundles were released in December 2014

From these 612k last year 400k was only Feb (launch).

PS4 is really way up this year than last year... it will pass last year number in four-five weeks.

There is more games coming this year because last year had nothing and the week basis is way high than last year... there is no way it will sell only 1 million... 1.5m is the minimum this year.

I will do a graph... just wait some minutes ;)



Ryng on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Sharu said:

DQquest bundles was released in Japan in December 2014 and it got a decent boost then, if I'm remember correctly. Actual game was out in February 15.

Ohhhhh ok.

These are the numbers for December by MC.

Week 49: 15.971
Week 50: 68.041
Week 51: 30.951
Week 52: 33.150

Pretty low numbers if you ask me... this year it will do way better... there is no way it will sell only 30k in the last weeks of December.

I believe it will sell:

Week 49: 30.000
Week 50: 40.000
Week 51: 50.000
Week 52: 60.000

 

So, i think we will see 180k in 2015 compared to the 150k of 2014... so, better than last year, but not by 50%, more like 20% or so...



Aerys on 30 June 2015

PS4 will outsell WiiU early in 2016 since FF XV is planned for a release before april and FFXV marketing will help it a lot during décember so it should well 200k



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Some considerations...

- I started the graph after the Week 8 because the launch breaks it with 309k making almost impossible to see the difference between lower weeks (the pourpose of this graph).
- I matained the Week 9 even so it is the second week of launch.

 

 

PS4 is tracking way better than last year in a weekly basis... and this year we have big titles in the second semester than last year... it will easily out do the 2014 number.

But how much?

I believe it will be ~1.5m but some guys can thing 1.2m or something between but it is hard (almost impossible) PS4 do less than last year.

And you guys are missing another big point here: PRICE CUT!!!