I think the Series X will outperform the PS5, but at a price. Hence why Lockhart exists

— Tom Warren (@tomwarren) December 30, 2019

The only thing they proved, was that a mid gen upgrade isn't going to swing momentum in your favor, particularly when you have no first party games that are even showing a positive performance gap to those of the more popular competition.

And the Series X is definitely going to be 100 bucks above the PS5 if the current leaks are remotely accurate. 

Personally, if it were just XBSX vs PS5, being more expensive at any amount is no good for MS, unless there is some major giant gap, whether it be GPU TF or whatever.

It's even worse if PS5 aimed for $499 and is doing everything it can to launch at that price. People have made it clear that for the most part, a single SKU above $499 is too much for the majority. A $549 XBSX in this case is a bigger problem then many may think.

The smarter idea in this case, is to clearly crush PS5 specs with XBSX, but keep it $100 more at $599, but have Lockhart at $399 and make sure it's darn worth it and can certainly be considered next gen. This way people who choose to buy a next gen XB, can have their next gen experience with either SKU, but the Lockhart owners actually get the best deal in the end since the games will focus more on their console than the XBSX.

PS5 in this case, is basically stuck at $499, unless PS really wants to get aggressive and drop $50 to $449, but that's unlikely in the first or maybe even second year.

If you drop all the prices here by $100, then Lockhart is a tougher sell as it will be borderline next gen at best, PS5 will be sitting in the sweet spot, and XBSX will be at $499 like XB1X and XB1 were. The more expensive the consoles end up being, to a certain extent, the better this strategy for MS would be.

All of this kinda backfires on MS as well, if XBSX is an over the top $599 console, and PS5 is a little more tame than we think, and lands at $399. If both PS5 and Lockhart are similar consoles at similar prices, XBSX is screwed if it's too much power. This would be a really odd turn of events, considering some are worried that Lockhart would be out of place.

The X1X was never going to sell better than the PS4Pro because Sony already had the lead, the word of mouth and the software library.  Its the reason MS decided to sell the console as a premium item to gauge how well it sells more than how it was going to change the tide between them and Sony.  You can probably say that the X1X sold enough that MS believe they can go balls to the wall with the series X because having a beast of a system gained them enough sales to justify going that route.

I still highly doubt MS is going to price their system 50 dollars more than the PS5.  MS will market the series X as a premium system and if the specs come out the way the rumors are going, then they will also be able to market the difference.

I also do not believe MS view the market the same as gamers with trying to out sell Sony as much as building their ecosystem and services.

$350 discless at launch, or a year into the gen would totally be possible, and not a bad idea for MS in this scenario. I think competitive sales would be fairly close in this case.

PS5 would be in a tougher spot. Now PS5 would still hold it's own, even being surrounded like this, but the only way I see it pulling away from MS in this case, is if PS5 was made to be maybe a $549 console, and was subsidized and sold at $499 to compete with all MS SKU's. Instead of PS creating more SKU's like MS, they just subsidize instead. It would give them a value advantage no doubt. Being close enough to XBSX specs, but $100 cheaper, would probably allow them to keep a lead, even at $499. MS would be unlikely to drop the XBSX price as well because they already have cheaper SKU's and they would want to keep the most powerful image clear in people's minds with a clearly higher premium price. I think PS5 would have a 2:1 sales lead in this case at best.

Personally, I do not believe Lockhart will release in year one when both the Series X and PS5 release.  For the first 2 years at the price point both consoles will release for only the hardcore will purchase each system.  MS might have a leg up with Gamepass as purchasing games with the system als is a factor and having probably 2 exclusives within the free trial will make most people consider the system total cost as well.  I believe MS will release lockhart a 6 months to a year later after judging the market so it can agressively price the system correctly and also understand if they need to beef the GPU up so it sits in a nice sweet spot between the PS5 and Series X.

I'd say terrible idea for one main reason.

If MS starts next gen and says here's next gen and it's $499 or $599, and PS5 is somewhere in that mix, and then they come out 6 months to 12 months later and say here's another next gen console and it's much weaker, people are going to be like WTF?

Mid gen upgrades can make sense. A downgrade makes little sense. Removing a disc drive doesn't really change how the game plays, so that is more acceptable though.

*The only way it makes sense to me is if MS overshoots at $599 and PS5 is $399. Then MS has an excuse to drop another console around $399.

Lockhart will not be aimed at the buyer who is going to pay 499 to 599 for either system.  Lockhart looks to aim price and performance wise for the very price conscious consumer which is the people who look at purchasing a console around the 299 mark.  I believe you are looking at this like its a sprint but I believe they are looking at the situation as a marathon.  I believe MS should agressively target the budget console and loss leader it at 299 instead of your premium console which if sells at X1X starting price will only get hardcore gamers to spoon up in the early years.  Starting later allows MS to agressively price the cheaper console at a competitive price and performance to the PS5.  

Also why would people who purchase a console at a budget price say WTF.  Its a console for the budget buyer who wants in on next gen without the high dollar amount.  MS still have the premium beast and the lower cost system isn't considered a mid gen system.  Its considered as a budget system which is something different the market hasn't experience yet.  Testing how this goes will be critical if such designs will be fruitful in the future.

The only way MS can release Lockhart at the same time as the Series X if they already know Sony price point and performance with the PS5 on release.  Lockhart has to perform at a specific delta and price point to be viable alternative, especially if its weaker than the PS5.  It has to perform at such a level to not make that much of a difference but still give the gamer next gen features and performance at a reasonable price.

The only issue was game content this gen and it seems they are nailing it for SeXbox.
More Studios, more quality game announcements and better services are on the rise.

Oh really you like it? I downloaded it but havent actually decided to boot it up given the reviews.