Eh, still don't buy that this game is going to do as well as you guys are saying. Let's leave it at that.

OP, in a few days we will have a very good clue of how it will turn out. Not the answer (well if it does extremely good or extremely bad we might have the definitive answer) but a pretty good hint of how it'll do.

Bu to be honest, it seems things are pointing out to 150k+ between only Japan and UK and that seems pretty good to me honestly.

We'll have to wait and see.

-Like I already said, Splatoon cause very good splash among Nintendo community and Wii U owners, even with meta score of 81. We already know that lack of initial content is reason why this game dont have higher score, and we also know more free content is coming. You can already see what splash cause here of forum and how many Wii U owners already buyed game or plan to buy.

-Shipped numbers are around 150-200k, We know game in Japan was sold around 125k only first day, on second day Nintendo already stated that game is sold out. Because of all that, Digital sales are probably very good, like I said 150k+ for physical sale and around 200k with digital sale in first week in Japan alone. We will know tomorrow for sure only physical sale numbers. If look inital information that we have like Japand, UK, Amazon spots...game is selling very good, also you can see how many Wii U owners here on forum already buyed game.

-Why Splatoon need to competing against already established nintendo ip!? Splatoon is not competing against another Nintendo game, Splatoon is game that targeting Mario Kart and Smash Bros. owners, it so simply. You talking about about people who will buy Wii U , what about 10m current owners. You cant compare 3rd party games with true Nintendo game that is very appealing for Nintendo fans on Nintendo console. You don't realise, and anyone who already played Splatoon will tell you this, Splatoon is becoming for online shooters what Mario Kart is for racers or Smash Bros. for fighting games, thats is Nintendo plan too and that why they gave this game marketing on a scale of Mario Kart. All that and free content till whole summer will gave this game very good legs.

-Lack of some content is not half finished game.

-Relly!? You can see here on forum how many Wii U owners think about Splatoon like a indie/budget game, I say maybe around 10-15%.

Evan Bayonetta 2, game that isn't appealing for Nintendo fans and Wii U owners, game with small marketing will LT probably be around 1m, and you think Splatoon game that is very appealing to Nintendo fans and Wii U owners, game that targeting Mario Kart and Smash Bros. audience and have very big push from Nintendo, will sell only 800k-900k LT!?

How?

Splatoon is very fun, addictive, not valiant, colorful and polished game. You can easily see that this game is made by Nintendo for Nintendo fans.

Bayonetta first week in Japan sold 39k, sources say that Splatoon sold around 125k first day. So you can say that Splatoon in first week probably will say around 4x better than Bayonetta 2.

If you  are referring within the Nintendo community, yes Splatoon has made a splash. I was referring to the overall gaming community however.

I am still confident in my sales prediction for the first week, but I won't go any further since we need actual sales to end this argument.

splatoon is competing against other nintendo ip because people have a very limited amount of money to spend. Getting smash bros, mario kart, super mario 3d world and splatoon is around $220-$240, so if they had to cut one out, I would venture to guess that they would cut out splatoon simple. Splatoon will get sales, but later on in its life, it will dwindle like pikmin 3 did (by the idea of low priority compared to other nintendo games).

When splatoon releases fully in fall, it will have twice the content it does now, no it is not releasing as a half-finished game, but it definitely is releasing as a gimped game.

The people on this site isn't really indicative of the video game market. Not only are the people here passionate and informed about video games, I would venture to guess that most people on this site are nintendo centric. So yes, I do still believe the majority of people view splatoon as an indie/ budget game.

Bayonetta will end up with zombiu sales in the end, not 1 million (sadly :( ), and I do think splatoon will beat that, but only to go onto pikmin 3 sales (which should be around 800k-900k). I can't say much about digital sales though since I do not have a benchmark or numbers for comparison

Toad was $40 on launch

-Well this game is selling only on Nintendo console so splash in Nintendo community is crucial.

"splatoon is competing against other nintendo ip because people have a very limited amount of money to spend."

-Sorry but I think that argument is just stupid, because that can be said for any game at world on any system. And why you thinking like a Wii U owners dont have any of those games already purchased: Smash Bros. - 3.65m, Mario Kart - 5.1m, Super Mario 3D World - 4.1m, all that on instal base of around 10m. Like I said, Pikmin is very specific title (it's RTS), didn't have big marketing and had much smaller user base when was launch, Splatoon is targeting much wider audience, Nintendo is pushing really hard and is releasing on much bigger instal base, and yet you think it will perform similar.

-Nintendo already released new map and new weapon, like this they will keep hype about game whole summer that why it will have very good legs.

-So you say that informed Nintendo centric people don't think about Splatoon like indie/budget game!? That's whole point, Wii U owners and informed Nintendo fans don't think about Splatoon like a indie/budget game, because they will buying game not PS4/Xbox One owners.

-If we look VGC numbers, Bayonetta is curently on 0.67m, Zombi U on 0.85m and Pikmin 3 on 0.9m, this all numbers are without digital sales. Zombi U will pass 1m, I think Pikmin 3 with digital sales already passed 1m, and Bayonetta 2 will be around 1m LT. And you think Splatoon, game that have much more bigger potential for much better sale (strong marketing, much more appealing for wider audience, bigger instal base...) will not pass 1m LT!?

Wishful thinking ?

-Yes but it would have actually sold wii u consoles if more than just nintendo fans talked about it, you are basically admitting that only wii u owners are gonna buy this game meaning the console bundle has pretty much lost its effectiveness

-the limited money argument does apply to everything. Why do you think watchdogs was delayed, because it was near the gta v release. Do you honestly think any major game would release during the call of duty release? People have a limited amount of money to spend, but because mario kart and smash is proven to sell late in its life, new ip releases on the wii u have a tough time selling against those games. Just think, if a kid could only pick 2 games for his new wii u, which would he not buy: smash bros, mario kart, or splatoon.

- I do think splatoon will perform similar to pikmin 3. pikmin 3 was actually marketed well (I saw many tv ads for it) and is good for all ages. Yes splatoon will have more marketing, but that being said, pikmin 3 already had an established fan base. Also, whatever install base splatoon has, pikmin 3 has since they are on the same console, so I don't get what you are trying to say there

-nintendo is releasing dlc for a game that is severly content deprived (as shown by reviewers). Nintendo isn't creating hype over the summer, it is doing damage control for the botched launch.

-all wii u owners =/= informed wii u owners. Many owners are kids who simply buy the games shown on tv. That is who the wii u is marketed for. Therefore they, not informed wii u owners, and the other console owners are the people I refer to when I say others view splatoon as an indie/budget game. This very clearly affects sales.

-speaking of sales, we know that vgchartz has been overtracking sales. Zombiu is actually not near 1 million, and Bayonetta is not near .6 million. I believe pikmin 3 is also overtracked and so should also be around 800k-900k lifetime (which is where I would put splatoon without digital)

-If splash in Nintendo community is big for some game, other will notice that too. This is type of game you need to play to actually see how much fun and addictive game is. Yes, primary target Wii U owners but it will move some consoles too, because its adding something new to Wii Us lineup.

-Yes, the limited money argument apply to everything and every product in the world, because of that I can't see why talking about in this case particalary. You talking like a people are limiting buying only for 2-3 games in life time per console!? And again, big part of Wii U owners alredy have those games, Mario Kart 8 have attach rate around 50-55%, Smash Bros. around 35%, so you saying they dont have any money for new games!? You again wrote about new Wii U owners, what about 10m current owners that already have some games and want some new and fun game!? Sory, but all this what you wrote don't make sense.

-Pikmin 3 had some marketing, but marketing of Splatoon is much stronger. Again, Pikmin is very specific game, it's RTS genre, Splatoon is game for everyone, Splatoon for shooter is what Mario Kart is for racer games. Its not same if you launch game on system with curent user base of 4m and launch game on system with 10m curent users.

-Damage control!? Game didn't have any negative reviews, 57 postive and 7 mixed reviews, users praising game and all indicates that game is selling very well. Also, it seems Nintendo locked some content, new map and new weapon without any update, that look like buliding a hype not like a damage control.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=202972&page=5

-Nintendo released Splatoon Direct, anybody can see that game isn't indie/budget game. You are in such a minoroty whit that point of view. And how you can say that is affected sell!? In Japan clearly dont affect sale.

-Maybe, but I think Pikmin 3 is actually undertracked and it have very good digital sale one eShop too.

We can continue like this forever, likely we will get numbers tomorrow.

This are facts why I think will sell good:

-Incredibly fun and good game
-completly new and innovative gameplay
-fits Wii U community perfectly in terms of graphics, artstyle and gameplay
-testfire demo was a huge sucsess, almost only very positive feedback
-Nintendo is really pushing this game, almost like Mario Kart, they see Splatoon like next new big IP

-positive reviews