5th fastest selling game for Wii U sounds very good, also UK for Nintendo is probably weakest market in Europe.

Oh really??? Well good luck with that! 

You came to that conclusion based off of UK? Nintendo's worst market?

It's also where the game is the cheapest. US price is about 50% more expensive than UK, the $60 price will kill it there.

Yea, that doesnt really matter. You can believe that if you want when splatoon is most expensive in japan yet it sold over 135k FW

Edit: yourt right, its gonna be killed here in the US, under 50k in the NPD. Its going to bomb!!!!

You cannot judge anything by the Japanese market, their tastes differ quite a bit from the west.

And as for US, Nintendo is the only one kind enough to provide actual numbers for NPD, and we will have to rely on them, because the game most certainly will not be in the report (outside Top 10).

You think Splatoon isnt going to be in the top 10 report? What are these 10 games that will top it? GTA/WItcher/MKX.... what else? or are you expecting that much of a bomb?

As for japan, i can base a judgement. Many predictions were under 60-70k, it broke practically all expectations on gaf and here. I had one of the highest predictions for FW sales and even my prediction was overshot.

And usually US>Japan on these types of releases, though it could be less, but not as low as your making it out to be

For a game without violence, splatoon has solid scores, but in the end, an 81-82 on metacritic is really nothing to brag about. When I talk to friends, I don't hear "hey man, did you see splatoon, it got an agreggate score of 81!", the last of us on the other hand was REALLY talked about due to having many many perfect scores. That is the kind of splash that a new ip should have to be huge, either that or the level of marketing call of duty or destiny got.

we know Japan is 150k shipped not sold, if I had to guess, it is 130k sold. And I do not believe Europe is that Nintendo centric, nor is America willing to pay $60 for a budget game that should be $40. So yes, I do think this game will overall do 300k-400k first week.

Splatoon is game for everyone, from 5-95 and why Nintendo is targeting Mario Kart and Smash audience with very strong marketing.

 This is the very reason splatoon will not have great legs. Because it is not competing against call of duty, rather the already established nintendo ip. I can tell you now, many people who will buy a wii u will buy mario kart or super smash bros first, then super mario 3d world, then donkey kong country, hyrule warriors, or pikmin 3, and then if they still want to buy more, splatoon. Essentially this issue of "low priority" is one that many 3rd party games struggle with on nintendo consoles, and splatoon is no different.

the "free content" you mentioned should have been there to begin with, so yes it will help over the summer, but at the expense of releasing a half finished game (affects reviews and initial buyers), so in the end the dlc brings momentum to compensate for the momentum lost at launch.

I'm sorry, but to many people that I have talked to (as a wii u owner talking to other wii u owners) it does look like an indie/budget game.

I very highly doubt splatoon will reach 2 million by the end of the year, and I am willing to bet on that.

I doubt it, this is basically the Bayonetta situation all over again, the only thing that Ninty fans might find more appealing here it's the art-style and over-all presentation and themes in the game, the genre is still unfamiliar in Nintendo territory.

Splatoon is probably going to outsell Bayo2 current lifetime in its first week. How are the same?

And the genre doesnt matter, again japan is proving that with over 135k sales FW with sellouts all over the place (not many games get over 100k FW in japan and this is a new ip on a terrible selling console