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Forums - Gaming - Why do people on this site think Splatoon is going to do so well?

 

Splatoon sales prediction

<500k 91 13.28%
 
500K-800k 123 17.96%
 
800k-1.2 million 131 19.12%
 
1.2million-1.6 million 100 14.60%
 
1.6million-2million 70 10.22%
 
2 million+ 170 24.82%
 
Total:685
tivec on 02 June 2015

If Splatoon couldn't beat Witcher 3 in UK in first week, I don't see any chance for this game to go over 2m sales.



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Miyamotoo on 02 June 2015

Splatoon is fifth fastest selling Wii U game in UK, that's pretty good, also UK is one of the weakest markets for Nintendo.



midrange on 02 June 2015
Miyamotoo said:
midrange said:

-Yes but it would have actually sold wii u consoles if more than just nintendo fans talked about it, you are basically admitting that only wii u owners are gonna buy this game meaning the console bundle has pretty much lost its effectiveness

-the limited money argument does apply to everything. Why do you think watchdogs was delayed, because it was near the gta v release. Do you honestly think any major game would release during the call of duty release? People have a limited amount of money to spend, but because mario kart and smash is proven to sell late in its life, new ip releases on the wii u have a tough time selling against those games. Just think, if a kid could only pick 2 games for his new wii u, which would he not buy: smash bros, mario kart, or splatoon.

- I do think splatoon will perform similar to pikmin 3. pikmin 3 was actually marketed well (I saw many tv ads for it) and is good for all ages. Yes splatoon will have more marketing, but that being said, pikmin 3 already had an established fan base. Also, whatever install base splatoon has, pikmin 3 has since they are on the same console, so I don't get what you are trying to say there

-nintendo is releasing dlc for a game that is severly content deprived (as shown by reviewers). Nintendo isn't creating hype over the summer, it is doing damage control for the botched launch.

-all wii u owners =/= informed wii u owners. Many owners are kids who simply buy the games shown on tv. That is who the wii u is marketed for. Therefore they, not informed wii u owners, and the other console owners are the people I refer to when I say others view splatoon as an indie/budget game. This very clearly affects sales.

-speaking of sales, we know that vgchartz has been overtracking sales. Zombiu is actually not near 1 million, and Bayonetta is not near .6 million. I believe pikmin 3 is also overtracked and so should also be around 800k-900k lifetime (which is where I would put splatoon without digital)

-If splash in Nintendo community is big for some game, other will notice that too. This is type of game you need to play to actually see how much fun and addictive game is. Yes, primary target Wii U owners but it will move some consoles too, because its adding something new to Wii Us lineup.

-Yes, the limited money argument apply to everything and every product in the world, because of that I can't see why talking about in this case particalary. You talking like a people are limiting buying only for 2-3 games in life time per console!? And again, big part of Wii U owners alredy have those games, Mario Kart 8 have attach rate around 50-55%, Smash Bros. around 35%, so you saying they dont have any money for new games!? You again wrote about new Wii U owners, what about 10m current owners that already have some games and want some new and fun game!? Sory, but all this what you wrote don't make sense.

-Pikmin 3 had some marketing, but marketing of Splatoon is much stronger. Again, Pikmin is very specific game, it's RTS genre, Splatoon is game for everyone, Splatoon for shooter is what Mario Kart is for racer games. Its not same if you launch game on system with curent user base of 4m and launch game on system with 10m curent users.

-Damage control!? Game didn't have any negative reviews, 57 postive and 7 mixed reviews, users praising game and all indicates that game is selling very well. Also, it seems Nintendo locked some content, new map and new weapon without any update, that look like buliding a hype not like a damage control.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=202972&page=5

-Nintendo released Splatoon Direct, anybody can see that game isn't indie/budget game. You are in such a minoroty whit that point of view. And how you can say that is affected sell!? In Japan clearly dont affect sale.

-Maybe, but I think Pikmin 3 is actually undertracked and it have very good digital sale one eShop too.

 

We can continue like this forever, likely we will get numbers tomorrow.

 

This are facts why I think will sell good:

-Incredibly fun and good game
-completly new and innovative gameplay
-fits Wii U community perfectly in terms of graphics, artstyle and gameplay
-testfire demo was a huge sucsess, almost only very positive feedback
-Nintendo is really pushing this game, almost like Mario Kart, they see Splatoon like next new big IP

-positive reviews

You're right, we are not getting anywhere with this. Best just to wait for the numbers.

So I'll just give facts as to why I think splatoon will sell an average amount (800k-900k lifetime):

-fun game, but hindered by limited content

-due to limited content and childish atmosphere it gives off a indie/budget game vibe to those unaware of the game

-adds great atmosphere and gameplay to the shooter genre, but also removes the very basic standards of shooters (voice chat, customization, local 4 vs 4)

-the testfire demo only reconfirmed the purchase of those who were already going to purchase the game, not convince new gamers to buy it.

-Splatoon is competing against huge and proven franchises (mario kart, smash bros, mario 3d world, donkey kong country,...) in a limited space

-solid reviews for game, not so great for a game that was supposed to be the NEXT BIG thing



Skullwaker on 02 June 2015
tivec said:
If Splatoon couldn't beat Witcher 3 in UK in first week, I don't see any chance for this game to go over 2m sales.

The UK is by far Nintendo's weakest market and always has been. Games on the Wii U that have sold more than 2m opened worse than Splatoon over there.



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jonathanalis on 02 June 2015

it has almost as much mass apeal as mario kart.
2M is a safe bet.
It was my LF prediction before japan pre-orders.



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rdupuy11 on 02 June 2015

While my predictions are almost universally wrong, I did get one guess right, that Mario Kart 8 attach rate would be over 50%.

My experience with the original Wii console is I was always disappointed in 3rd party titles (except Raving Rabbids) - and I really just wanted to buy Nintendo's A-list titles - Super Mario Galaxy, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit, Mario Kart.

With the Wii U my purchases really are very simple indeed. Last year I bought Mario Kart 8. This year I bought Splatoon. Technically I suppose Super Smash Bros. could have been purchased, but I even skipped that.

The reason I suspect Splatoon will do OK, is it just feels like the release of the year for the Wii U.



Miyamotoo on 02 June 2015
midrange said:
Miyamotoo said:
midrange said:

-Yes but it would have actually sold wii u consoles if more than just nintendo fans talked about it, you are basically admitting that only wii u owners are gonna buy this game meaning the console bundle has pretty much lost its effectiveness

-the limited money argument does apply to everything. Why do you think watchdogs was delayed, because it was near the gta v release. Do you honestly think any major game would release during the call of duty release? People have a limited amount of money to spend, but because mario kart and smash is proven to sell late in its life, new ip releases on the wii u have a tough time selling against those games. Just think, if a kid could only pick 2 games for his new wii u, which would he not buy: smash bros, mario kart, or splatoon.

- I do think splatoon will perform similar to pikmin 3. pikmin 3 was actually marketed well (I saw many tv ads for it) and is good for all ages. Yes splatoon will have more marketing, but that being said, pikmin 3 already had an established fan base. Also, whatever install base splatoon has, pikmin 3 has since they are on the same console, so I don't get what you are trying to say there

-nintendo is releasing dlc for a game that is severly content deprived (as shown by reviewers). Nintendo isn't creating hype over the summer, it is doing damage control for the botched launch.

-all wii u owners =/= informed wii u owners. Many owners are kids who simply buy the games shown on tv. That is who the wii u is marketed for. Therefore they, not informed wii u owners, and the other console owners are the people I refer to when I say others view splatoon as an indie/budget game. This very clearly affects sales.

-speaking of sales, we know that vgchartz has been overtracking sales. Zombiu is actually not near 1 million, and Bayonetta is not near .6 million. I believe pikmin 3 is also overtracked and so should also be around 800k-900k lifetime (which is where I would put splatoon without digital)

-If splash in Nintendo community is big for some game, other will notice that too. This is type of game you need to play to actually see how much fun and addictive game is. Yes, primary target Wii U owners but it will move some consoles too, because its adding something new to Wii Us lineup.

-Yes, the limited money argument apply to everything and every product in the world, because of that I can't see why talking about in this case particalary. You talking like a people are limiting buying only for 2-3 games in life time per console!? And again, big part of Wii U owners alredy have those games, Mario Kart 8 have attach rate around 50-55%, Smash Bros. around 35%, so you saying they dont have any money for new games!? You again wrote about new Wii U owners, what about 10m current owners that already have some games and want some new and fun game!? Sory, but all this what you wrote don't make sense.

-Pikmin 3 had some marketing, but marketing of Splatoon is much stronger. Again, Pikmin is very specific game, it's RTS genre, Splatoon is game for everyone, Splatoon for shooter is what Mario Kart is for racer games. Its not same if you launch game on system with curent user base of 4m and launch game on system with 10m curent users.

-Damage control!? Game didn't have any negative reviews, 57 postive and 7 mixed reviews, users praising game and all indicates that game is selling very well. Also, it seems Nintendo locked some content, new map and new weapon without any update, that look like buliding a hype not like a damage control.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=202972&page=5

-Nintendo released Splatoon Direct, anybody can see that game isn't indie/budget game. You are in such a minoroty whit that point of view. And how you can say that is affected sell!? In Japan clearly dont affect sale.

-Maybe, but I think Pikmin 3 is actually undertracked and it have very good digital sale one eShop too.

 

We can continue like this forever, likely we will get numbers tomorrow.

 

This are facts why I think will sell good:

-Incredibly fun and good game
-completly new and innovative gameplay
-fits Wii U community perfectly in terms of graphics, artstyle and gameplay
-testfire demo was a huge sucsess, almost only very positive feedback
-Nintendo is really pushing this game, almost like Mario Kart, they see Splatoon like next new big IP

-positive reviews

You're right, we are not getting anywhere with this. Best just to wait for the numbers.

So I'll just give facts as to why I think splatoon will sell an average amount (800k-900k lifetime):

-fun game, but hindered by limited content

-due to limited content and childish atmosphere it gives off a indie/budget game vibe to those unaware of the game

-adds great atmosphere and gameplay to the shooter genre, but also removes the very basic standards of shooters (voice chat, customization, local 4 vs 4)

-the testfire demo only reconfirmed the purchase of those who were already going to purchase the game, not convince new gamers to buy it.

-Splatoon is competing against huge and proven franchises (mario kart, smash bros, mario 3d world, donkey kong country,...) in a limited space

-solid reviews for game, not so great for a game that was supposed to be the NEXT BIG thing

Because we already wrote about all that same things, I will just answer to bold part.

Not true, I didn't have plan to buy game before Test Demo, after I try game at Test Demo I decided to buy game day one digital, and here on forum I saw that I am not alone.



ils411 on 02 June 2015
Clyde32 said:
chocoloco said:

Allow me to quote you. 

chocoloco said:
This is how every Nintendo exclusive is treated. Personally it looks like a colorful indie.


honestly, i kinda agree.

feels like every kinda big or something game gets hype to the high heavens by the most uber fanboys...

kinda like how every game was the savior for the ps3 when it was sucking so much balls due to stupidly high price and underwhelming multiplats.



megafenix on 02 June 2015

well, the game ahs had a good reception, the game is refreshing experience for the over saturated shooters so it has great potential gamers who would like to test something different instead of same mechanics over and over, the game has had good marketing support by nintendo

Accounting all that is possible that splatoon may turn a good ip



MTZehvor on 02 June 2015

For the same reason that Dolphins' fans think their team is going to do well at the start of every season.

Jk. I guess it's because Nintendo's been pushing it pretty hard and it's the only major Wii U title released in a while. Plus originality and all that.