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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is the dedicated handheld market really dying or simply returning to normal?

DS + PSP = 230m

3DS + Vita = 90m when all is said and done

4DS + lol = 50m (this be my prediction)

Yeah handheld gaming is fucked. It's only gonna get worse as smartphones and tablets become more popular. I have a feeling that by the end of Nintendo's next handheld lifecycle they're going to jump fully into the mobile game.



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Fusioncode said:
DS + PSP = 230m

3DS + Vita = 90m when all is said and done

4DS + lol = 50m (this be my prediction)

Yeah handheld gaming is fucked. It's only gonna get worse as smartphones and tablets become more popular. I have a feeling that by the end of Nintendo's next handheld lifecycle they're going to jump fully into the mobile game.

Handheld gaming is only in trouble if Sony and Nintendo do not release Mobile Network capable handhelds. If they do this, the only way it fails is if the gamers fail. If we have networked dedicated handhelds that are fully capable of texting, calling, web broswing, banking, social media, smartwatch and smartband interaction, and the gamers out there don't jump to the platform then it is not Sony or Nintendos fault. 

Gamers messed up big time by failing to support the 3G Vita. I fully admit I was in a shitty state of mind upon its release. I wanted a PlayStation Phone, and failed to see that with Skype that is exactly what the Vita was. However, I fiddle farted around on iOS and Android wasting nearly $3000 on useless devices before I realized that it was completely stupid supporting ecosystems that takes a shit on games at every turn. 

All I can do now is hope and continue to hit Sony and Nintendo with requests for networked handhelds. If they give it one more shot with unlocked devices, and full access to the PlayStation and Nintendo Networks, services, and online multiplayer, they should easily build a userbase that is very profitable, and well worth supporting. Even if they only rake in 30 - 50M units each, those users will be worth more than 500M users on Android and iOS. However I think with networked handhelds it would be more like 100M+ each, and make a huge dent in iOS and Android. Google and Apple would be fine, but Samsung should be scared.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

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10/03/2010 

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Shadow1980 said:
Soundwave said:


The Game Boy Color had shipments in the US of 

8.7 mill (FYE Mar 2000)

7.74 mill (FYE Mar 2001)

Then the GBA simply picks up right where the GBC left off in its first two years:

7.5 mill (FYE Mar 2002)

7.8 mill (FYE Mar 2003)

Nintendo's shipment data is for "the Americas," which includes all of North and South America, not just the U.S. There is NPD data for actual sales for just the U.S. for handhelds going at least as far back as 1995.

Shrugs. Seems fairly consistent to me. Once Pokemon took like crazy around late 1999 in the US, Game Boy brand sales in the US were high, that wasn't an "unexplained" anamoly though. 

The DS was the anamoly in that it had a slow first two years in the US, but even then Nintendo quickly returns to 7+ mill handheld sales in the North American market fairly quickly and then of course begins to crush that number. 

Nowadays, 3DS is going to probably have issues hitting 7 mill+ worldwide this year, let alone being to do that just in the American market like the GBC, GBA, and DS all did several times. 

3DS' peak year in the US market for sales was 4.6 million. GBC is 8.7 million, GBA is 9.45 million, DS is 12.29 mill. 3DS is odd man out there, not the GBA.

I still don't think we're on the same page here. The GBA wasn't necessarily the odd man out, but the U.S. was. Nintendo handheld sales in the U.S. (and the Americas in general) grew at a much faster rate than in the rest of the world. Again, variations in regional performance can have a huge effect on global sales. The massive spike in handheld sales in the U.S. (and the Americas more broadly) beginning with the GBC and carrying on to the GBA had the effect of inflating GBA sales being inflated in the region relative to other regions. Again, had the U.S. behaved more like the rest of the world in handheld buying habits in the early 2000s the GBA would only have sold around 60-65 million globally. The spikes caused by the GBC were more modest outside the Americas, and the GBA was not able to ride that wave of momentum like it did in America. Let's look at the Game Boy to GBA sales ratio by region:

NA: 1.07 to 1
Japan: 1.91 to 1
Europe: 1.88 to 1

Pretty much what we see in the graphs I posted last night. Now let's look at the regional GBA to DS sales ratios:

NA: 0.7 to 1
Japan: 0.51 to 1
Europe: 0.39 to 1

So, even relative to the mighty DS, which did strongly everywhere, the GBA has a relatively much greater performance in the U.S. than elsewhere. It is painfully obvious that handheld sales in the U.S. were anomalously high back in the GBA era when compared to the rest of the world. Again, the U.S. share of GBA sales was greater than its share of any other system besides the Xbox brand.

Regional variations matter. Outside the U.S. the 3DS is performing as well as the GBA. The U.S. is the odd duck here, not any one platform.  If you can't acknowledge the importance of regional differences in buying patterns (which also negates your iPad argument) then there's no reason to continue this discussion.




So regional variations matter, but not when it benefits the 3DS, then it's just "a-ok", am I right? It's ok that the 3DS benefits from a much more portable centric Japanese market today, but the GBA, well we need to qualify it for having good sales in the US, for whatever reason. Gotcha. 

We can't compare the 3DS to the DS, because well, that's just not fair. DS was an anamoly. OK. But the GBA is now an anamoly too. Because its US sales early on were just too good. What's next? Can't compare it to the GBC, because Pokemon was taking off at that time? So lets turn back the clock to pre-1999 to get a metric by which the 3DS can be judged. Never mind at that time Nintendo had much higher console sales that could offset periods of lower console sales, nowadays they can't even sniff 20 million consoles, so the times they have a changed.