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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is the dedicated handheld market really dying or simply returning to normal?

Yakuzaice said:

I don't really think you can establish any sense of normalcy based on the pre DS Nintendo handhelds.  The Gameboy had an extremely long life with a late life resurgence thanks to Pokemon/Color.  The GBA on the other hand rocketed out of the gate only to be replaced by the DS early in its life.  They were also both near their sales peak at the time their successors rolled out.  It is very unlikely for the 3DS to be in a similar situation when it is replaced.

Just averaging them out doesn't make that figure "normal".  You could easily fiddle with the numbers to get other figures which could be called normal.  In the 7 fiscal years prior to the year of the DS launch, Nintendo shipped 116m handhelds.  That averages out to 16.57m per fiscal year.  Nintendo hasn't shipped that many for the last three fiscal years.  This past fiscal year wasn't even close, and it seems unlikely they'll return to those levels soon.  Their best shot is probably the first full fiscal year of their new handheld assuming the 3DS hasn't completely collapsed by then.

Well thats just a 7 year sample, if u go back the full 18 years of non-DS hardware, the average is a little over 11 million in which case 3DS currently has averaged about 12 million in its 4 full fiscal years.

Ur right tho that there are a bunch of various factors to take into account, I just find it very interesting that 3DS is on track to sell pretty much exactly the average of pre-DS Nintendo handhelds in terms of both hardware and software.



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The 3DS is selling waay less than the GBA did.



RolStoppable said:
It's not dying and it's not returning to normal either. It's declining, because the 3DS isn't a good design and the Vita is a complete failure. That decline can easily be reversed in the next generation; that is, for the company that will make another handheld. And if that happens, everyone will look at the 3DS as the outlier in the line of Nintendo handhelds, because it's the only one where Nintendo made really stupid decisions.


I have to agree with you in this.    Both Vita and 3DS leave much to be desired.

What exactly did any of them bring in terms of inovation to the table this gen ?   

I feel if Nintendo does a good job with their next handheld, things might get back to normal.    That being said, I'm really interested in what NX could be.



It is declining. Massively.

And I don't think it can be reversed.
Nobody over the age of 12 is going to carry around a dedicated game handheld in era of the smartphone. And those under 12 are also under assault.

Forget DS-PSP, Nintendo's handheld shipments are way down on a yearly basis from the GBA era too. Saying "well OK but before the GBA era Nintendo shipped less" ... yeah and? Back then they no.1 in the console business with the SNES and NES, something they are not even close to today. So they can't afford any decline in the handheld business, but they are getting it anyway.

We saw it in the financial statement thread, but the GBA had shipped something like *14 million* more units at this same time as the 3DS has. Even forgetting the DS, clearly something is very wrong with this market. 



People just had super high exceptions for 3DS and PSV because of the DS and PSP, which is dumb if you ask me, since the DS had PS2 level sales and I don't think any handheld will ever come close to that ever again



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ExplodingBlock said:
People just had super high exceptions for 3DS and PSV because of the DS and PSP, which is dumb if you ask me, since the DS had PS2 level sales and I don't think any handheld will ever come close to that ever again


That's all fine and good but explain the 3DS being 14 million behind the GBA too at the same point in its life cycle. 

I think 3DS is going to fizzle out in the early 70 million-ish range, and largely it's lucky to even get to that because it had a really strong early first year once Nintendo dropped the price, but that was still when smartphone gaming was in its infancy. It's grown into a full blown adult now, and Nintendo simply is overmatched against it. 



zorg1000 said:
Yakuzaice said:

I don't really think you can establish any sense of normalcy based on the pre DS Nintendo handhelds.  The Gameboy had an extremely long life with a late life resurgence thanks to Pokemon/Color.  The GBA on the other hand rocketed out of the gate only to be replaced by the DS early in its life.  They were also both near their sales peak at the time their successors rolled out.  It is very unlikely for the 3DS to be in a similar situation when it is replaced.

Just averaging them out doesn't make that figure "normal".  You could easily fiddle with the numbers to get other figures which could be called normal.  In the 7 fiscal years prior to the year of the DS launch, Nintendo shipped 116m handhelds.  That averages out to 16.57m per fiscal year.  Nintendo hasn't shipped that many for the last three fiscal years.  This past fiscal year wasn't even close, and it seems unlikely they'll return to those levels soon.  Their best shot is probably the first full fiscal year of their new handheld assuming the 3DS hasn't completely collapsed by then.

Well thats just a 7 year sample, if u go back the full 18 years of non-DS hardware, the average is a little over 11 million in which case 3DS currently has averaged about 12 million in its 4 full fiscal years.

Ur right tho that there are a bunch of various factors to take into account, I just find it very interesting that 3DS is on track to sell pretty much exactly the average of pre-DS Nintendo handhelds in terms of both hardware and software.


Except it's not. The GBA had a much higer sales per year before it was replaced than the 3DS has had. 

Using the down period of the GB from 1994-1996 where Nintendo kinda stopped supporting the Game Boy also skews things, and it's of small comfort to Nintendo because back then they could afford the Game Boy brand to decline because they had the NES/SNES. They don't have that anymore. 



Soundwave said:
ExplodingBlock said:
People just had super high exceptions for 3DS and PSV because of the DS and PSP, which is dumb if you ask me, since the DS had PS2 level sales and I don't think any handheld will ever come close to that ever again


That's all fine and good but explain the 3DS being 14 million behind the GBA too at the same point in its life cycle. 

I don't know, maybe it was because GBA had 0 competition while 3DS has to deal with the mobile market and the PSV. It's amazing that it is where it is today



ExplodingBlock said:
Soundwave said:


That's all fine and good but explain the 3DS being 14 million behind the GBA too at the same point in its life cycle. 

I don't know, maybe it was because GBA had 0 competition while 3DS has to deal with the mobile market and the PSV. It's amazing that it is where it is today


The problem with that is its losing momentum not gaining or holding its own. Every year 3DS shipments are lower and lower, I'm starting to feel like 7-10 million Nintendo handheld shipments in a year will become the new baseline for them, which isn't good. 



Handhelds are dying in the west. That's a fact. Compare 3DS US sales and Europe sales with their previous handhelds and you will realise that the only place in the world that the 3DS is performing well is in Japan. Without Japan, it would be considered a flop by Nintendo and any sane person for a Nintendo handheld.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M