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Forums - Gaming - Media Create Sales: Week 18, 2015 (Apr 27 - May 3)

Xenoblade deserved to do better.



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Wagram said:
Xenoblade deserved to do better.


Many games do...... Many games do :-/



Wagram said:
Xenoblade deserved to do better.

Japanese people don't really like JRPGs. They like FF and DQ.

Anything that doesn't have an established name is not going to push amazing numbers.

Yo-kai Watch didn't even sell that well at first and only started selling after the anime took off. You'd see better sales of Nintendo's more obscure franchises if they invested more in cross-media projects. Although truth to be told, such investments aren't wise for a Wii U game.

We do need Zelda, Metroid, Pikmin, xenoblade animes in the future though. Only then can these franchises grow.



sc94597 said:
outlawauron said:

The numbers that Famitsu provides every month show that very few Nintendo titles go over 10%. It should never be an assumption that digital sales are high unless there are circumstances that would make it so (ie. out of stock, significant discounts for digital, etc).

How accurate are Famitsu's digital numbers though? I mean they say Super Smash Bros 3DS only sold about 6% digitally in Japan, but the rates are much higher than that in other regions (about three times as much.) Considering Nintendo's other statistic of 30% of total digital sales being Japanese I just can't see how this adds up, unless there are a lot more exclusively Japanese games that sell digitally. If 10% of sales worldwide are digital, on average though, that would mean if a game sells 200k worldwide it must sell 20k digital. However, let's say the game sold 50k in Japan 60k in Europe and 90k in NA. With Japanese digital sales at .3*20k = 6k. 6k/50k = 12% digital sales. It just doesn't seem likely to me that Nintendo can report that 30% of their digital sales are Japanese, but Famitsu reports Japanese digital sale rates half or even a third that of European and North-American numbers. 

After searching futher:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=845222

"So, we should consider this numbers as the minimum digital sales, instead of a total sales."

It sold 6% for that month. The charts aren't lifetime digital/physical sales.

Edit: You also cherry picked his statement. This is the entire thing:

3. This digital sales come from a monthly retail and digital Top 30 Ranking. That means that if the game doesn't chart in that ranking, there's no way to know its digital sales. So, a game can sell decently digital, but if it doesn't reach the 30 position in that ranking, there's no way to know how well or bad is selling digital. So, we should consider this numbers as the minimum digital sales, instead of a total sales.



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Wagram said:
Xenoblade deserved to do better.

If we assume a 10%-15% increase in sales for Xenoblade X over the first game, in all regions, then we can expect it to be more or less a million seller. For a "traditional" Japanese Role Playing Game that isn't Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, or Pokemon that is pretty good.

I'd be happy with numbers close to Tales of Xillia or Bravely Default (slightly over 1 million) and satisfied with 900k - 1 million lifetime.   

It also depends on the budget of the game though. I don't think there  is/will be a huge marketing budget so that will save a lot of money. They also mentioned multiple times that they were constrained by time/budget so we can expect the game's development budget to be relatively modest. If it is something like 20 million to produce, localize, and manufacturer the game, and the game sells 10% digitally, and it sells like 1 million,  then we can probably expect profits to go something like this, without regarding regional taxes: 

100k*$60 (digital) + 900k*$45 (retail) - $20,000,000 (costs) = $26.5 million. (Nintendo games don't ever really decrease in price, so almost all copies should be sold at $60 and $45 profits.) 

That is enough for Nintendo to fund Monolith Soft's developement of another RPG, assuming development costs marginally increase over Xenoblade Chronicles X, and Nintendo doesn't have something else in mind for Monolith Soft. That would be good. 



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benao87 said:
Kresnik said:
Noooo Operation Babel bombed on Media Create too.


What's that?


#9 on Media Create.  Last game opened at 16k.  I was hoping for better.



outlawauron said:
sc94597 said:

How accurate are Famitsu's digital numbers though? I mean they say Super Smash Bros 3DS only sold about 6% digitally in Japan, but the rates are much higher than that in other regions (about three times as much.) Considering Nintendo's other statistic of 30% of total digital sales being Japanese I just can't see how this adds up, unless there are a lot more exclusively Japanese games that sell digitally. If 10% of sales worldwide are digital, on average though, that would mean if a game sells 200k worldwide it must sell 20k digital. However, let's say the game sold 50k in Japan 60k in Europe and 90k in NA. With Japanese digital sales at .3*20k = 6k. 6k/50k = 12% digital sales. It just doesn't seem likely to me that Nintendo can report that 30% of their digital sales are Japanese, but Famitsu reports Japanese digital sale rates half or even a third that of European and North-American numbers. 

After searching futher:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=845222

"So, we should consider this numbers as the minimum digital sales, instead of a total sales."

It sold 6% for that month. The charts aren't lifetime digital/physical sales.

I would think digital sales would be pretty frontloaded, as they appeal greatly to people who are impatient and want to get the game without having to travel to the store (maybe that is one reason why Japanese digital sales are less - higher store to people density.) Still I can't reconcile low Japanese digital rates, at about 2-6% for Nintendo games according to Famitsu, while Nintendo claims Japanese digital sales (after dropping) make up 30% of total digital sales and then also claims that their digital sales make up 13% of total sales in NA , especially when Japanese sales usually are less than NA/European sales overall. 

This means Japanese digital sell-through rates (for Nintendo) must be close or larger than NA/EU because they are selling almost a third of all digital games, while selling fewer total games in general than the other regions. 



outlawauron said:

3. This digital sales come from a monthly retail and digital Top 30 Ranking. That means that if the game doesn't chart in that ranking, there's no way to know its digital sales. So, a game can sell decently digital, but if it doesn't reach the 30 position in that ranking, there's no way to know how well or bad is selling digital. So, we should consider this numbers as the minimum digital sales, instead of a total sales.

The full quote doesn't change much. In fact it enhances my point.

"if it doesn't reach the 30 position in that ranking, there's no way to know how well or bad is selling digital." 

So a game could have a digital rate >10%, but if its overall sales aren't that great with respect to other games we won't know about it. 



I expected less for Xenoblade X, considering lower pre-orders on comg than Xenoblade Chronicles.
Also, does the DraQue expansion include the original game ? Because that mean the Wii U expansion sold almost half of the original game, that's a pretty good ratio I think ?



Hiku said:
sc94597 said:
outlawauron said:

It sold 6% for that month. The charts aren't lifetime digital/physical sales.

I would think digital sales would be pretty frontloaded, as they appeal greatly to people who are impatient and want to get the game without having to travel to the store (maybe that is one reason why Japanese digital sales are less - higher store to people density.) Still I can't reconcile low Japanese digital rates, at about 2-6% for Nintendo games according to Famitsu, while Nintendo claims Japanese digital sales (after dropping) make up 30% of total digital sales and then also claims that their digital sales make up 13% of total sales in NA , especially when Japanese sales usually are less than NA/European sales overall. 

This means Japanese digital sell-through rates (for Nintendo) must be close or larger than NA/EU because they are selling almost a third of all digital games, while selling fewer total games in general than the other regions. 

There's more to digital sales than just the charting new games during release week. Classic e-shop games, DLC, discounted older games, etc.

I'll say this though. I'm pretty sure digital sales tend to be quite a bit higher on 3DS than on WiiU given the fact that a single game on WiiU can fill up your entire drive. Xenoblade X is 22.7 GB. When you have to consider getting an external drive for one game, you can bet that people will think once or twice before deciding on that.

Sure, but the virtual console and DLC games are released in all regions. They are a constant. Unless you believe they sell more in Japan than in other regions? The ratios still remain the same, in such a scenario. 

The same holds true for the 3DS by the way. You are only given a 4 GB SD card with most 3DS purchases. Two or three 3DS games fill this up pretty fast. For the price of a class 10 32 GB SD card you can get a 320 GB External HDD.