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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales -Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki week 14 2015 (March 30 - April 5, 2015)

Ryng_Tolu said:
Holy fuck BloodBorne, A FUCKING 85% DROPPED!!!!!!!

This is something I noticed for a while now, PS4 games seem to have practically no legs at all and drop like a rock the week after their release. 85% is still an extreme case, but I'm already expecting drops of ~75 - 80% on PS4 games right now



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fluky-nintendy said:
Nintendo truly in need of a new handheld asap. Sony doing very well for instance, despite the PS4 drop (expected).


How? 3DS is doing extremely well with literally 3-4 releases that actually mattered. Its #1 in HW for the week and by far for the year with it being down about 10% only YoY.

they dont need it ASAP if the thing is still going to sell 3mil more lifetime from this point on



Teeqoz said:

The PS4 hasn't had two or more MGSV style relevant games per week though, so I think his definition of relevant is a bit lower than yours.

I'd say anything that can open at around 50k or more is "relevant" in that it'll help keep the baseline up. But it does indeed look like there'll be quite the drought in Japan during the summer months, for both consoles.


No, I know, but what upcoming games apart from MGSV are going to get 50k opening?  Nothing I can see - possibly FF XIV, but that's just an expansion.  

Over the past few weeks it's at least had a slew of relevant Japanese franchises in a row (which was my point).  Even some of the western games had relevance in Japan (like Battlefield).

It's going to be a very rough few months.



Updated Vita software rankings:

 

Year: Name: All Skus +Digital All Skus Stand Alone Sku Digital
2013 God Eater 2 373,758 373,758 371,027 ?
2014 Minecraft 337,424 73,100 73,100 264,324
2014 Freedom Wars 326,562 280,209 280,209 46,353
2015 God Eater 2: Rage Burst 318,209 299,945 299,945 18,264
2012 Persona 4 Golden 312,333 308,359 304,785 3,974
2013 Final Fantasy X HD 262,268 239,688 25,443 22,580
2014 Sword Art Online: HF 258,234 238,539 238,539 19,695
2013 Soul Sacrifice 253,840 253,840 190,546 ?
2013 Final Fantasy X-2 HD 242,182 219,602 5,357 22,580
2013 Toukiden 233,264 233,264 233,264 ?
2012 Hatsune Miku: PD f 230,853 230,853 227,075 ?
2011 Hot Shots Golf: WI 216,504 216,504 202,568 ?
2014 3rd Super Robot Wars Z 176,439 160,842 160,842 15,597
2015 Sword Art Online: LS 162,577 162,577 162,577 ?
2014 Toukiden: Kiwami 154,610 143,048 143,048 11,562
2014 Phantasy Star Nova 154,070 137,263 137,263 16,807
2013 Senran Kagura: SV 153,226 153,226 153,226 ?
2014 Gundam Breaker 2 144,129 122,296 122,296 21,833
2014 J-Stars Victory Vs 143,630 139,875 139,875 3,755
2014 Hatsune Miku: PD F 2nd 139,782 125,173 125,173 14,609
2014 Oreshika: TB 139,233 123,884 123,884 15,349
2013 The Legend of Heroes: SK 129,847 112,115 112,115 17,732
2015 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: T-H 121,219 121,219 121,219 ?
2013 Phantasy Star Online 2 121,050 121,050 121,050 ?
2013 DanganRonpa 1/2 118,272 112,575 112,575 5,697
2013 One Piece: PW 2 118,112 118,112 118,118 ?
2011 Uncharted: Golden Abyss 116,333 116,333 116,333 ?
2012 Gravity Rush 114,378 114,378 94,834 ?
2013 New Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 113,365 103,234 103,234 10,131
2014 The Legend of Heroes: SK 2 113,239 106,214 106,214 7,025
2013 Dragon's Crown 112,853 112,853 112,853 ?
2015 Digimon Cyber Slueth 110,291 110,291 110,291 ?
2014 DanganRonpa: Another Episode 106,662 98,528 98,528 8,134
2012 Tales of Innocence R 98,204 98,204 90,162 ?
2013 Muramasa Rebirth 92,299 92,299 92,299 ?
2013 Tales of Hearts R 89,049 89,049 89,049 ?
2014 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2014 88,669 75,316 75,316 13,353
2012 Ragnarok Odyssey 85,826 85.826 77,139 ?
2012 Mobile Suit Gundam Seed 83,666 83,666 79,353 ?
2014 Samurai Warriors 4 83,544 74,165 74,165 9,379
2011 Disgaea 3: AoD 79,526 79,526 67,847 ?
2014 Soul Sacrifice Delta 78,580 66,143 66,143 12,437
2014 Love Live! 77,508 76,033 76,033 1,475
2012 Metal Gear Solid HD 73,721 73,721 67,467 ?
2013 Demon Gaze 69,293 69,293 69,293 ?
2015 One Piece: PW 3 69,252 69,252 69,252 ?
2014 Terraria 68,805 21,315 21,315 47,490
2012 Atelier Totori Plus 68,514 68,514 68,514 ?
2013 Valhall Knights 3 68,181 68,181 68,181 ?
2013 Gundam Breaker 2 66,646 66,646 66,646 ?
2013 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2013 66,087 64,615 64,615 1,472
2013 Ragnarok Odyssey Ace 60,065 53,470 53,470 6,595
2,013 PhotoKano Kiss 58,875 58,875 58,875 ?
2012 Call of Duty: Black Ops Declassified 58,752 58,752 50,602 ?

Looks like by the time we get Marchs digital numbers we may have a new #1.



PSN: extremeM

PlayStation Vita Japanese Software Sales (Media Create Physical/ Famitsu Digital)

Teeqoz said:
theprof00 said:
Teeqoz said:
kowenicki said:


I can help.  The PS4 needs to average about 26k per week from March 2015 until March 2016 just to catch up to the PS3 I think.


The PS4 is merely about 250k behind launches aligned (using VGC figures, so the first 54 weeks of both consoles). And the PS3 had started its second holiday by now (the PS3 launched in the week ending 12th november, 2006) while the PS4 has only has only had a single holiday. So it's not really an apt comparison, because you have to take in account holidays, and different launch dates. You can pull this comparison in a few years, because by then, the PS4 should have had enough holidays that the difference in launch dates would be negligible.

Kowen aside, he's a smart guy. He's just attempting to explain something someone else said. We don't actually know if that was the intention Rolu was making, though Kowen should have corrected him if that was the case.




I'm fully aware that Kowen is a smart guy. I was just attempting to explain why launches aligned comparisons aren't always neccesarily 100% fair

Even without the second holiday, it will catch up. It's a silly comparison to begin with because average weekly sales goals have never panned out in the past 8 years.

Weekly averages are wind and little else.



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3DS Down only 10% YoY (724k vs 656k)

Upcoming Weeks intill H1 of 2015 is done. 3ds will need to put in some work...

Week 14         32.0k      34.5k
Week 15         23.5k
Week 16         19.9k 
Week 17         34.0k
Week 18         39.6k  
Week 19         35.9k
Week 20         23.6k  
Week 21         23.3k
Week 22         23.7k
Week 23         36.3k
Week 24         26.6k
Week 25         26.3k
Week 26         27.9k



Wow. The discrepancy is huge with MC and Famitsu. Famitsu must have a much lower sample size for 3DS this week.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

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uran10 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
fory77 said:

PS4 should have a >16k baseline.
Wii U holding.
3DS still beating the Vita.

MP 10 legs! 56k Xenoblade :C

After this massive dropped in just a week (-40%) i think that PS4 will dropped below 15,000 for some week...

56,000 is "bad", but at least better than in COMG, and have make a nice 3DS boost.

Its not bad Ryng. Xenoblade 3d almost equaled the original's FW and remakes don't do well in Japan.  MP 10 legs though! I was waiting for the ps4 drop for a while, DQ and Bloodborne were keeping it afloat with those 2 launched ps4 will drop between 10000-20000, Wii U is currently selling badly for 1 reason a bundle was announced far too early which killed sales, after Xenoblade X bundle launch Wii U and ps4 will probably be selling around the same amount until FF and MGS.

Edit:  I'm also going to go on record and say I was expecting 3k-6k Baseline for Wii U once that bundle was announced but its holding at 7k+ so I'm satisfied with said sales.

It fell about 30k short. Not a big number, but considering that's like 40% of overall sales, it's not close equaling. Xeno3DS did well though. 40-50k is about what was expected.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

hiska-kun said:
uran10 said:
So for anyone who has been following the Japanese market for a while, does it look like the market is recovering?

No. Both software and hardware are declining and it's becoming the worst year for Japan since 1990.

Embrace Smartphones.

Even with the multiple YW games releasing? Have to imagine that software will be close YoY.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

outlawauron said:
hiska-kun said:

No. Both software and hardware are declining and it's becoming the worst year for Japan since 1990.

Embrace Smartphones.

Even with the multiple YW games releasing? Have to imagine that software will be close YoY.


Multiple as in 1 main game Dec and 2 spin offs (not saying the spin offs wont do a million a piece though!)

Last Year Had 2 main YW games and YW1 with almost a million in legs. Pokemon ORAS/SSB/MH4U, with MK8+Kirby and many others.

Just the games i mention above alone is over 16mil. We dont know if a Pokemon/MH is coming and i think YW 2014 > YW 2015