How so? If There is no Vita successor than it'll already go down and besides GBA was 80mil, compared to this gen's 60mil+ so far. Only looks bad when you compare it to last gen, most of it being down because of the vita.

Nintendo Can still do 30mil+ on HHs and achieve huge Software sales on many titles, hence why i said it does have a future :)

Of course, but it doesn't seem very likely. However, if someone manages to have an idea that makes a handheld more competitive with smart devices, it can be a hit.

The current handhelds can't compete. They need a new idea or they will suffer a bigger contraction.

In all fairness as well, a lot of them 3DS games are still selling today as well. I bet games like MK7 and Animcal Crossing are going to sell a few more million by the time we've moved on to Nintendo's next handheld.

3DS software sales and tie-ratio are way lower than DS, even factoring the difference in install bases. 3DS tie ratio is worse than even PSP and Vita.

The look of the situation isn't bad just because of Vita. It will end doing 25% to 30% of the PSP sales, but 3DS will be around half of the DS sales. Both of them suffered a massive contraction, with Vita suffering a worse one because PSP was more similar to a smartphone than DS.

That handhelds will have a future, we know. But how they will be relevant, it's a big question. The recent Tegra X1 showing, including ports of Crysis 3, RE5 and Metal Gear Rising may start a trend of AAA games on mobile devices. Decent controller add-ons can make this a reality. I still think that a handheld phone hybrid could be the next big thing.

Well like in my previous response to u, it shows that in terms of Nintendo total hardware & software per generation, there is a baseline of about 100 million & 500 million. This generation will be down about 20% on both fronts with 100% of that decline coming in America. Japan & Others on the other hand are going to sell exactly what is expected from them based on previous generations.

This generation will be about 30 million, down from 50 million in America or a 40% decline. I also pointed out how on average and adjusted for inflation, it's costs about 40% more to own both pieces of Nintendo hardware now than it did from the mid 80's-mid 00's. When a large part of ur target demographic is American children, price is likely a big issue.

Of course phones/tablets are serious competition but the decline could just as easily be do to Nintendo's own decisions, not necessarily because of what others are doing. If Nintendo once again releases more affordable hardware along with better advertising/marketing (3DS & Wii U were both originally thought to be revisions to DS/Wii, not full blown successors) then I believe Nintendo has a high chance of getting back to their 50 million or so baseline in America.

This have been a very interesting thread! The OP had some pretty interesting points, and the following discussions have been very intriguing.

I think it's safe to say that HH still has a future, but in what shape and form and for how long remains to be seen. If Nintendo manages to sell ~50m HH every gen with a high tie ratio I think they'll be pretty happy.

But I do share some of Soundwave's concerns about smart phones taking off as a legit gaming device. I don't think it's a farfetched idea; nowadays phones have EVERYTHING in them. They're cameras, they're TVs, they're computers,they're iPods. Why not gaming as well? I think it'll be awhile, but when tactile screens become standard you WILL be able to feel those digital buttons. What then?

The pop up joystick would be a game changer if Apple goes through with it. Tactile buttons too, but people are able to use a touch keyboard already without much fuss, on-screen B (jump)/A (attack) buttons work fine even on a normal touch panel. 

People already game a ton on smartphones, I read a study where even women spend several hours a week playing games on their phone or tablet. 

I think it's very difficult these days to convince anyone over the age of 12 to carry around a dedicated handheld game machine with them when they all own a smartphone too. And even kids ... many kids prefer a phone/tablet too. It's a rough go. 

No, jumping with touch screens does not work fine :p 

yeah my gf spends waaaaaay more time on her iPad than she does with any other gaming device (namely PC and Wii). And she likes "real" games mind you; shes spent 180h on Xenoblade, loves Donkey Kong Country and 2D Super Mario and have recently discovered Banished and sunken 20h+ on that game. But nothing beats the amount of time she spends on her iPad.

Ive seen the same trend; my gfs little cousin (9 yrs old) had a DS and a Wii, now he only have a Wii U... and mom and dads iPad.

Not mocking, i just find the whole argument funny when people always wanna forget PSP. It doesnt matter how it was marketed the fact was it did well and those in depth 3d games did sell well. 80mil is nothing to scoff at. NOW if you want to argue that is something that people are not that into anymore then that is fine, but lets not act like that was always the case. As a matter of fact with that being true, that put HH future into even more uncertainty, how much more people are going to want to carry around another device?

disagree, i never had trouble with the circle pad and my hands arent that small.  GBA had even worse lighting hell all Gameboys really didnt stop them from selling. The battery life is nto that bad. This is all subjective anyway.

Becasue maybe a gamer WANTS a console experience on the go, thats why i buy HHs and that is something that my phone cannot replicate, BUT i know enough to know that i am in the minority when it comes to that. I agree on your PS4 point but im not quite sure what that has to do with what im saying. 

Not really at all, not sure why you are trying to put words in my mouth. They are making different devices than phones. YOU are the one that said they need to compete and guess what a dedicated HH is not competing, HHs are not going to get more popular and they will decline. For them to compete they will actually have to compete and make something similar ot a phone or tablet. I dont want them to do that as they would get destroyed. IMHO its inevitable how this is gonna pan out, unless you think Ninty could make another DS that flys off the shelves but i wouldnt bet on it.

They have digital delivery now and much hasnt change. I agree with you on what they have to do, but IMHO i think Ninty is stubborn enough to not do it and they rather suffer until they have to be dragged in kicking and screaming.

it has 3rd party support just not from the west, which it never really had to begin with.

I think it's a waste of time trying to explain it, especially to someone who only sees mobiles/tablets as the future for handhelds/soon everything in the future.

I don't see this ever changing, Nintendo's a nice easy target to constantly rag on with in terms of mobile/tablet talk, but it's already a done to death topic at this point.

I still think handhelds have a good future though.