torok said: Last gen 240M handhelds were sold. This gen we will probably have 100M with luck. That's one hell of a contraction. |
Like I have said previously, u have to look at the full picture, not just a single generation that was by and far more popular than previous generations.
NES-61 million, Game & Watch-43 million, software-500 million
SNES-49 million, Gameboy-54 million (89-96), software-500 million
N64-33 million, Gameboy-64 million (97-03), software-500 million
GC-22 million, GB Advance-81 million, software-500 million
Wii-100 million, Nintendo DS-150 million, software-1.8 billion
Wii U-15 million, 3DS-65 million, software-400 million (estimates)
Wii/DS should be taken completely out of the discussion because they are simply outliers whose success are not likely to be replicated. For each of Nintendo's first 4 generations, they sold roughly 100 million units of hardware with a pretty consistant breakdown between regions, Americas-50 million, Japan-25 million, Europe-25 million, give or take a few million in each. This generation Japan/Others are on track to hitting their previous baseline while Americas is looking at about a 40% decline or about 30 million lifetime. Let's also take a look at price of hardware in the middle of each generation.
1988, NES-$99.99, Game & Watch-$19.99 each
1993, SNES-$129.99, Gameboy-$89.99
1998, N64-$129.99, Gameboy Color-$69.99
2003, GC-$99.99, GB Advance SP-$99.99
2015, Wii U-$299.99, New 3DS XL-$199.99
Adjusted for inflation, in the middle of each generation u could get both pieces of Nintendo hardware for about $300, now it's $500 to get both. A 40% increase in price along with a 40% decrease in sales in the Americas, is that a coincidence? Maybe, or perhaps since American kids have traditionally been one of, if not the biggest markets for Nintendo, is price a huge factor in getting these devices in American kids hands? I think that is a very distinct possibility.
Going forward if Nintendo's next handheld and console each cost about $199.99-249.99 at launch and are down to $149.99 or so 2-3 years later than can they get back to 50 million units sold in the Americas? I believe it's very possible.