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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So Handheld Has No Future? GBA vs DS vs 3DS Analysis (Franchise Sales Comparison)

dharh said:

We have a rising population.  When the Vita completely exits and the next Nintendo HH comes on the scene we will see, but I think ultimately it will be a decline in sales.  If they have the audacity to create a fusion platform that unifies a single medium you might well see a sizable cannibalization in total combined hardware sales.


That depends... If WiiU does 15mil and 3ds does 70mil (85mil total), i think a fusion could do 60mil+ and have alot more SW sales. But hey it depends on what this fusion actually is.

What if Fusion is a box and HH is each controller? That could potentially mean 25mil-30mil fusion and its HH (controller) over 100mil *.*  

 

Speculation of course



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dharh said:
zorg1000 said:

People really need to stop using DS/PSP generation as a standard to base things on. Here are the sales for each of Nintendo's handhelds

Game & Watch-43 million

Gameboy (89-96)-54 million

Gameboy (97-03)-64 million

Gameboy Advance-81 million

Nintendo DS-154 million

Nintendo 3DS-51 million (rising)

People seem to forget that Gameboy was a 2 generation handheld so it's 118 million sales don't explain the full story. When stacked up against each individual generation, 3DS sales don't look too bad, it's actually on track to sell just as well as Gameboy did during the huge Pokemon phenomenon.

We have a rising population.  When the Vita completely exits and the next Nintendo HH comes on the scene we will see, but I think ultimately it will be a decline in sales.  If they have the audacity to create a fusion platform that unifies a single medium you might well see a sizable cannibalization in total combined hardware sales.

Yeah, mostly in the poor countries.



Platina said:
KingdomHeartsFan said:

Imo the 3DS was stuck in the shadow of the DS, they need to get rid of the dual screens and do something different.


I actually like the two screens.. Therefore, you can get the nice clampshell shape, unlike the PSVita, where you have to buy a case to prevent the screen from scratching.

A big foldable screen gets both jobs done.



Materia-Blade said:
Platina said:


I actually like the two screens.. Therefore, you can get the nice clampshell shape, unlike the PSVita, where you have to buy a case to prevent the screen from scratching.

A big foldable screen gets both jobs done.


Then the free form screen will be super overpriced... :/



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Platina said:
Materia-Blade said:

A big foldable screen gets both jobs done.


Then the free form screen will be super overpriced... :/

the technology is a few years old. certainly, they can get as good of a price as they got 3d, if it releases in 2016.



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Materia-Blade said:
Platina said:


Then the free form screen will be super overpriced... :/

the technology is a few years old. certainly, they can get as good of a price as they got 3d, if it releases in 2016.


Though possibly true, having a screen fold 180 degrees is a bit much and not an easy thing to do, therefore making it very expensive..



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Samus Aran said:

I gave you reasons, you dismiss them without reason.

How should I know what Nintendo will do with their next HH? That's the job of their R & D department.

No matter how you try to spin it, Sony leaving the HH market can only benefit Nintendo. Even if it only boosts Nintendo's sales with 2%. 

The DS had a brand new and original gimmick and it was cheaper than the 3DS. Power means little, when has the most powerful console ever won its generation? PS4 is the only recent example I can think of now.

you didnt back up your reasons with anything. Thats why I dismissed them.

I simply ask what do you think taht Nintendo will do that will cause them not to decline with there next HH you obviously dont have an answer so i will continue to say "nothing" until i am proven otherwise.

2% is nothing and its not about benefiting Nintendo but HHs as a whole, 2% increase wont do nothing as it would still be less than GBA and DS so HHs will still decline. So again what will happen that will STOP the decline or at he least keep it stagnant



oniyide said:
Samus Aran said:

I gave you reasons, you dismiss them without reason.

How should I know what Nintendo will do with their next HH? That's the job of their R & D department.

No matter how you try to spin it, Sony leaving the HH market can only benefit Nintendo. Even if it only boosts Nintendo's sales with 2%. 

The DS had a brand new and original gimmick and it was cheaper than the 3DS. Power means little, when has the most powerful console ever won its generation? PS4 is the only recent example I can think of now.

you didnt back up your reasons with anything. Thats why I dismissed them.

I simply ask what do you think taht Nintendo will do that will cause them not to decline with there next HH you obviously dont have an answer so i will continue to say "nothing" until i am proven otherwise.

2% is nothing and its not about benefiting Nintendo but HHs as a whole, 2% increase wont do nothing as it would still be less than GBA and DS so HHs will still decline. So again what will happen that will STOP the decline or at he least keep it stagnant

I gave you 5 reasons and they're all valid.

Just because you want to see a decline doesn't mean there has to be one. It can go both ways. Or a status quo.

Vita gets a lot of Japanese support still, without the Vita those developers would go to Nintendo. Which means more Nintendo HH units sold and more software, mostly in Japan. The Vita is still doing well in Japan.



Platina said:
Materia-Blade said:

the technology is a few years old. certainly, they can get as good of a price as they got 3d, if it releases in 2016.


Though possibly true, having a screen fold 180 degrees is a bit much and not an easy thing to do, therefore making it very expensive..

Doesn't have to be 180 degrees, though, as long as there's some room for the screen. But why do you think the angle would make it any more expensive?



zorg1000 said:

Because when a single generation is literally 3x as much as the previous (GBA-80m to DS/PSP-240m) it's clearly not the norm, I'm saying look at the full picture, not just one single data point.

GBA was on the market for 6 years, not 3.5 years.

If we are to exclude Nintendo DS (clear outlier) & Game & Watch (didn't have interchangeable cartridges) and take the average of the 3 Gameboy generations (54, 64, 81) than we get about 65 million on average for the Gameboy family which is right about what 3DS is set to sell.

None of the Gameboy generations were seen as having an uncertain future so why are handhelds now not seen as one despite selling similar numbers?

We literally only have seen one generation of decline, we have no idea if that decline will continue, it's just as possible that sales will stagnate or even rise. What if Nintendo finds the next Pokemon or Minecraft craze among kids?

What I'm saying is a 50-80 million install has a strong future, especially when u have games like 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart that are all capable of selling 10+ million per game.

DS released in 2004. 3 years after GBA, oh sure they might have kept selling it but lets be real GBA only got real support for those years prior to DS. 

not counting DS 3ds is still not going to do GBA numbers. especially if you believe the NX is going to be a portable then it really isnt going to. That is a decline. No matter how you want to spin it. 3ds aint doing 80mil. Now if you think selling 50mil is a good future then thats your opinion. declining or stagnating is not good IMHO it might be acceptable but not good.