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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 LTD Sales should be at least 140 Millions

KBG29 said:
Imnus said:


In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like
Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M

The way I see it the PS4 and XBO should be that disruptive force. Sony and Microsoft can not possibly be blind enough to not see what smartphones and owning there own marketplace has done for Apple and Google. Smartphones got where they are because they are a device everyone needs now days, not just because they are a phone, but due to having atleast some app that will sway the majority of consumers. Not to mention they are almost the simplist devices to use. 

Microsoft and Sony have the boxes, they have the market places, and all they have to do is expand, expand, expand. Just like google, and apple, let the garage devs build all of these little apps. Let them build up a very useful tool kit that keeps people using their device every waking hour. Take the shared profits from that to fund bigger internal projects that will draw even more consumers. 

I think Sony has already put themselves in position to make a huge move in the industry. PSN is the vehical that can lead them to Apple and Googler like success, thanks in a huge part to PlayStation Vue. There are over 200M cable boxes in the US, and they are estimating over 320M worldwide buy this year (2015). With PlayStation Vue, and PSN Sony can put PS4 right into the winning model that built cable companies, and the smart phone buisness. Contracts and Bundles. 

If Sony can turn PSN into a machine that builds services and PlayStations, they can bust this industry wide open. Basic plans with PS Vue only could get people walking out the door with an up front cost of $199.99 for a two year contract in a matter of months. Expanded Plans could see PS Vue, PS Music, PS Now, and PS+ for two years, and walk out with a with a PS4 for zero down. Then you can have deals for multiple PS4's, a PS4 and 3 PSTV units, all kinds of ways to give people service throught the whole house. 

That is major maket disruption. That changes the game. And, that is how the industry continues to grow, and Sony catapults itself back into the battle with Apple, Google, Micosoft, and Samsung.

 

On another note. The Above + PlayStation Phone is how they attack the mobile industry, and bring mobile gaming back to life.

Sony is certainly doing some interesting this with PlayStation Vue and PlayStation Now, but they'll need to invest a lot in marketing and get people to try them, and figure how to beat the stranglehold that Cable Companies have in Cable TV and Internet, because they can fuck Sony's plan if they wish to, which they probably do.

Your idea of the PlayStation Services contracts is a great one, I think one of the main reasons why Smartphones are so successful is because people think they're paying less that they're actually paying, perception is extremely powerful. If that wasn't the case people would still seek Smartphones but they wouldn't go for top of the line, neither would they renew yearly or every 2 years like now, therefore sales wouldn't be nearly as big as they're now. On the other hand consoles would never be as big as phones though, but maybe they could be much bigger than they're now, if you can attach a lot of services and apps to them.

But then comes the part of "let the garage devs build all of these little apps. Let them build up a very useful tool kit that keeps people using their device every waking hour." Sony is terribly obtuse at this, just look at the PSVITA, the homebrew scene of that console is dedicated only to allow emulation and some little nice apps in that platform. You can't pirate VITA games, nor PS1 games really (you can but it's problematic and limited), you could only pirate PSP games, yet everytime a new exploit is released, Sony closes it down in 48 hours or less, to accomplish what exactly, how much profits could they possibly receive from PSP games.

Remember you can easily emulate PSP on your PC or Android device, so what's the point of such a closed platform, letting it more open would probably be more beneficial for their bottom line, but they're scared shitless of pirates and dedicate a disproportionate amount of resources to prevent it against their own interest. You think Google couldn't try to close their platform a lot more, but they won't do it because it's not beneficial for them, see they don't care you can emulate a PSP on your Android, Sony cares a lot that you can emulate a GBA, SNES, NDS, N64, Sega Genesis, Atari 7800, Game Gear or even an Amiga on their platform. On the other hand Google just makes sure their platform secure enough so the content creators feel safe enough, Sony goes overboard with this against their own interests.

About the PlayStation Phone, I think that boat sailed long ago. In theory it should work, I mean people really don't use their Smartphones as phones anyways, so even the ergonomics shouldn't matter so much, if it's ergonomic enough as Portable Console it should work as a Smartphone, they could also release with Bluetooth Earbuds for the phone calling and problem solved. But would Sony let it be open enough to compete with other Smartphones, be it via Android or their own OS with better integration with the rest of PlayStation devices, this I don't see it, I don't think Sony Mobile division is capable of this.



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It'll sell better than the PS3 and reach the 100 m, but 140 m or the legendary ps2 numbers are is a slim chance. Then again, anything is possible. Playstation always have better legs comparing to other consoles.



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Unless it peaks earlier.



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Imnus said:
Ruler said:

What makes you sure they will hold 10 years?


What makes you think it won't?

Console
Release date -> Discontinued

PS1 (11 years & 4 months)
December 1994 -> March 2006

PS2 (12 years & 10 months)
March 2000 -> December 2012

PS3 (8 years & 4 months so far)
November 2006 -> TBA

 

I'm not saying things can't change, but it won't change because one thinks, feels, perceives it will. You need evidence to suggest that things will go the way you think, otherwise it's pointless discussion, because opinions are like assholes, everyone has one. So for having a worthwhile discussion you need something to support it other that your personal feelings/thoughts about a situation.

 

Puppyroach said:
Seeing as how it has started to track behind PS2 already, its clear it will not come anywhere near those amazing levels. It will not have a year at 20mn+ levels and it will drop of all faster than Gen 6 or 7. I've said it before: 80-90mn is possible.

 

Do you have evidence of this, because I'm pretty sure the PS4 is still tracking above the PS2, unless you're referring to NPD(US), but then that may not be a good extrapolation because the PS4 competition in the US is a lot more than the PS2 had at this point in time (XBOX and GameCube with only like for 4-5 months in the market at this point in time while the PS2 with over 1 year and 4 months in the US), while on the other hand the PS4 is tracking above the PS2 everywhere else (except Japan).

Okay i thought you meant 10 years until the ps5



Sorry dude, but it won't happen! I can see it reach 105-110 million, but nothing beyind that!



                
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Imnus said:

So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be around 10M (it was between 9.5M and 10.5M).

Imnus said:

So, consoles usually sell around 50% of their annual total on the holidays. So I did some very simple math to see what can we expect:

PS4
4M by Dec 31, 2013
12M by Sep 31, 2014

8M Jan -> Sep 2014
8M Sep -> Dec 2014
16M - 2014 (Total)

20M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


XONE
3M by Dec 31, 2013
6M by Sep 31, 2014

3M Jan -> Sep 2014
3M Sep -> Dec 2014
6M - 2014 (Total)

9M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


Now my actual predictions are around 18M for the PS4 and 10M for the XONE by 31 Dec 2014. Why? Because XONE sales rely more heavily on the NA market where holiday sales grow the most.

 

Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:

PS4
Launch Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 
Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
YTD 4M 14M 17M 21M 20M 17M 15M 12M 8M 7M 5M
LTD 4M 18M 35M 56M 76M 93M 108M 120M 128M 135M 140M

10 Years LTD Sales
140M

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M

 

This was done with considerably less momentum and longevity than the PS2, but still like a PlayStation console considering its grow in Europe, Asia (outside Japan), the Middle East and South America. If somehow Japan picks steam and/or China becomes a factor it could achieve 150M, in fact it could still achieve that, considering this is a conservative estimate.

In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M, and even then it's pretty much impossible for something to be that disruptive so fast, Smartphones are probably the most disruptive piece of tech in human history (1:1 with population) and even then it took 3-4 years for Smartphones to destroy dedicated Handheld gaming. In that scenario I still see the PS4 over  100M or 120M depending when such tech arrives to the market.

 

 

For the XONE I won't be making detailed predictions because MS is behaving erratically so I don't know what could happen with the console, for example such aggressive price-cuts could move forward a ton of sales and help them gain back the mindshare in the US/UK but on the other hand it could kill public perception mid-longterm; also are they completely giving up outside US/UK; how many 1st Party developers could they form on time to help this gen; how many, how big and how difficult is for them to obtain 3rd Party exclusives, etc.

Anyways, I think the XONE should be around 50M-70M LTD.

I salute and admiring your projection sales and it's written well.

I want to ask you,  what will be the one that influence those sales and how big the influence is, as you can see sales growth because the market growth and the product dominating most of the market share, but that also because those product live on market environment that influenced by many factor such, micro environment and macro environment, how percentage do you think your projection close to reality if i may ask?

in my opinion market segment is changing thanks to internet and social media, and so the targeted market and focus is to difficult to track, that's why many product that release now will have a different sales pattern then last gen consoles.



Wasn't Xbox One 11 million? so you were off by a million on that.



This is how I see it

 


yearly cumulative
2014 14M 18.4M
2015 18.2M 36.6M
2016 21.84M 58.44M
2017 17.47M 75.91M
2018 12.23M 88.14M
2019 7.33M 95.48M
2020 3.66M 99.15M

If PS4 has a genuine 10 year plan then it will get past 100 million, but not by much. Best case is 110 million in 10 years. If they launch PS5 at the end of 2018 then it's pretty likely that PS4's last year of production and sale will be 2020. I may be mistaken by I haven't heard Sony talk about a 10 year plan for PS4.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

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Puppyroach said:
Seeing as how it has started to track behind PS2 already, its clear it will not come anywhere near those amazing levels. It will not have a year at 20mn+ levels and it will drop of all faster than Gen 6 or 7. I've said it before: 80-90mn is possible.

Thgat's a bold claim. Generally speaking the peak year for a console is year 3 or 4.

DS peak year was year 4

PSP peak year was year 4

Wii Peak year was year 2

PS3 peak year was year 5

360 peak year was year 6

Average peak year for gen 7 was year 4.

Wii did 16 million in year 1 and peaked at 24 million in year 2 and did 21 million in year 3. PS4 did 14 million in year 1 (87.5% of Wii) if it manages a similar ratio for years 2 and 3 (though with a peak in year 3 rather than year 2) that means ~39 million across years 2 and 3 with year 2 probably being about 18 million and year 3 being about 21 million. One year above 20 million is very likely.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:
Puppyroach said:
Seeing as how it has started to track behind PS2 already, its clear it will not come anywhere near those amazing levels. It will not have a year at 20mn+ levels and it will drop of all faster than Gen 6 or 7. I've said it before: 80-90mn is possible.

Thgat's a bold claim. Generally speaking the peak year for a console is year 3 or 4.

DS peak year was year 4

PSP peak year was year 4

Wii Peak year was year 2

PS3 peak year was year 5

360 peak year was year 6

Average peak year for gen 7 was year 4.

Wii did 16 million in year 1 and peaked at 24 million in year 2 and did 21 million in year 3. PS4 did 14 million in year 1 (87.5% of Wii) if it manages a similar ratio for years 2 and 3 (though with a peak in year 3 rather than year 2) that means ~39 million across years 2 and 3 with year 2 probably being about 18 million and year 3 being about 21 million. One year above 20 million is very likely.

yeah agree with u, and also depend on how big the sales on their peak year. What i can see from previous gen, PS3 and 360 can achive high peak by releasing more product such slim version, new service ( PS +, movie application, etc), and game (exclusive). Offcourse it depend how the company able to support the product by using the momentum left by earlier sales (launched sales).