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HollyGamer on 15 February 2015
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Imnus said:

So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be around 10M (it was between 9.5M and 10.5M).

Imnus said:

So, consoles usually sell around 50% of their annual total on the holidays. So I did some very simple math to see what can we expect:

PS4
4M by Dec 31, 2013
12M by Sep 31, 2014

8M Jan -> Sep 2014
8M Sep -> Dec 2014
16M - 2014 (Total)

20M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


XONE
3M by Dec 31, 2013
6M by Sep 31, 2014

3M Jan -> Sep 2014
3M Sep -> Dec 2014
6M - 2014 (Total)

9M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


Now my actual predictions are around 18M for the PS4 and 10M for the XONE by 31 Dec 2014. Why? Because XONE sales rely more heavily on the NA market where holiday sales grow the most.

 

Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:

PS4
 Launch Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 
Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
YTD 4M 14M 17M 21M 20M 17M 15M 12M 8M 7M 5M
LTD 4M 18M 35M 56M 76M 93M 108M 120M 128M 135M 140M

10 Years LTD Sales
140M

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M

 

This was done with considerably less momentum and longevity than the PS2, but still like a PlayStation console considering its grow in Europe, Asia (outside Japan), the Middle East and South America. If somehow Japan picks steam and/or China becomes a factor it could achieve 150M, in fact it could still achieve that, considering this is a conservative estimate.

In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M, and even then it's pretty much impossible for something to be that disruptive so fast, Smartphones are probably the most disruptive piece of tech in human history (1:1 with population) and even then it took 3-4 years for Smartphones to destroy dedicated Handheld gaming. In that scenario I still see the PS4 over  100M or 120M depending when such tech arrives to the market.

 

 

For the XONE I won't be making detailed predictions because MS is behaving erratically so I don't know what could happen with the console, for example such aggressive price-cuts could move forward a ton of sales and help them gain back the mindshare in the US/UK but on the other hand it could kill public perception mid-longterm; also are they completely giving up outside US/UK; how many 1st Party developers could they form on time to help this gen; how many, how big and how difficult is for them to obtain 3rd Party exclusives, etc.

Anyways, I think the XONE should be around 50M-70M LTD.

I salute and admiring your projection sales and it's written well.

I want to ask you,  what will be the one that influence those sales and how big the influence is, as you can see sales growth because the market growth and the product dominating most of the market share, but that also because those product live on market environment that influenced by many factor such, micro environment and macro environment, how percentage do you think your projection close to reality if i may ask?

in my opinion market segment is changing thanks to internet and social media, and so the targeted market and focus is to difficult to track, that's why many product that release now will have a different sales pattern then last gen consoles.