The 360 did not sell 68% of its total sales in NA, stop making up lies.

Vgchartz puts it at 57% and as far as I'm aware there are actually quite a few indicators saying that it's about 2 million or so overtracked in the US.

And the X1 is not almost 3 million units overtracked, that doesn't even begin to make any sense, US numbers for 2014 are essentially correct (and overall they're only about 100k above NPD numbers) and outside of the US the system barely sold over 3.5 million in 2014, (easily) over 600k of those are already going to the UK, while it is also pretty likely that another 280k go to France and over 70k for Germany are already proven as well, then we have Japan numbers which aren't huge but those 45k can be taken as pretty much right too. What you're suggesting here is that the X1 essentially sold nothing outside of those numbers in 2014.

so how much did xbox one sold to customer then
since it looks like 20 million ps4 and 10 million xbox one(and knowing mcirosoft it should be around 9.45 millionish I think)

My calculus, best case scenario based on the December quarter ending on 3 Jan 2015, which would be the benchmark date for AMD's nearly 30 million statement.

AMD is estimating less than 30 million PS4bones shipped as of 3 January. This estimate would be based on it's 100% accurate knowledge of number of console APUs shipped to each company as of the same date (i.e. it's financial reporting period). This means AMD knows with a fair degree of accuracy, because of how supply lines work, that number of APUs shipped - APUs sitting at factories waiting to be turned into working consoles - working consoles in Sony/MS warehouses waiting to be shipped means <30 million consoles shipped to retail.

That's best case with Sony having low head room with shipments. If Sony has more headroom with shipments (i.e. 19.5 million shipped) that does drop Xb one sell through to ~9.5 million.

Personally I think <10 million sell through at 3 Jan 2014 represents a failure on MS's part, because at pretty much exactly the same time on market 360 was dead on 10 million. If Xb one has fallen behind 360 at this point in time things are only going to get worse for Xb one, relative to it's immediate predecessor.

PS4 has sold through 18.5 million (estimated) as of 3 January. There's no information to suggest this is not a reasonably accurate figure so we accept it at face value. This means PS4 shipped a minimum of 19 million, which would represents supply constraints in some markets, but probably about 2 week's sales for week 1 and 2 of January.

We have no officially accurate Xb one shipment or sell through information other than VGC, and AMD's "nearly 30 million" minus Sony's minimum 19 million shipped.

Nearly 30 million - minimum 19 million PS4s shipped = nearly 11 million max Xb one's shipped.

Xb one does not appear to be at all supply constrained, but then expectations for Xb one retail sales is considerably lower than PS4, so while 500K on shelves for PS4 somewhat suggests supply constraint, 500K on shelves for Xb one suggests reasonable supplies.

So assuming minimum 500K on retailer shelves, Xb one sell through as at 3 Jan 2014 is likely to be "nearly" 10.5 million or less. It may be as low as 9.5 million if there is nearly 1.5 million Xb one's on shelves. But I think 1.5 million in retailer channels is too high.

So my guess for Xb one sell through LTD is between nearly 10 million and nearly 10.5 million. Which means VGC over track of between slightly over 500K and slightly over 1 million.

Its time for us to all admit that we aren't going to be able to accurately project the Xbox One. Microsoft needs to just say what it is. Charts is pushing the upper limit of possible shipped units with their projected sold through numbers and that just not reasonable. The biggest causality of this console war is Microsoft confidence in its own success.

The Xbox One has to have a least 9 million though.

They won't. MS will never reveal Xb one shipments as stand alone information while 360 is still shipping. We will simply have to try to extrapolate based on reasonable estimates of 360 shipments. Any number MS explicitly and solely associates with Xb one will look embarassing alongside PS4. They will limit their explicity XB one sales PR to USA and UK where the numbers are respectably close, and on occasional Xb one will get a win. And perhaps Xb one will actually win one or both of those markets LTD.

Interesting. That would imply XB1 was greatly overtracked. I'll wait for MS' shipment data though, although I bet they'll combine their consoles again.

How much you think its overtracked?

I know they stated "to date" in their press release, but which date does it really mean? The day the press release came out (January 20) or the end of the 4. quartal (December 31)?

It would still mean at least one of the consoles is slightly overtracked, unless there where many consoles which got sent back and resold, counting twice in the sales statistics.

Wait - last gen people were arguing about PS numbers because Sony used combined numbers, now this gen it is the other way round? And some people _now_ complain but didn't before? Funny :)

I guess I am confused why everybody cares so much about speculation? Is it not worth waiting until Microsoft releases their earnings report for Q2?