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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 and X1 shipped nearly 30 million consoles at the end of 2014 according to AMD

IFireflyl on 24 January 2015

Microsoft is Sony. Sony is Microsoft. All of the numbers.



 

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Aura7541 on 24 January 2015

We know that Sony shipped 4.5 million PS4's in 2013 and sold 14.5 million PS4's to consumers in 2014. That means that the amount of shipments has to be greater than 19 million. Assuming that Sony shipped 500K more than it has sold to consumers in 2014, we're seeing 19.5 million shipments.

The main question is what did AMD meant when they said "almost" 30 million shipments? It can be 29.5M, 29.9M, or even 28.5M. Let's assume that a total of 29.5 million PS4 and X1's were sold by the end of 2014. Subtracting my guess of 19.5 million PS4 shipments, the X1's shipments total 10 million.

If my assumptions are right, then when MS said that "10 million X1's will have sold to retailers", the 10M shipments were meant as an end-of-the-year target.



mochachino on 24 January 2015

I think xone may be overtracked then.



CosmicSex on 24 January 2015
walsufnir said:
Wait - last gen people were arguing about PS numbers because Sony used combined numbers, now this gen it is the other way round? And some people _now_ complain but didn't before? Funny :)

What was your stance last gen? Have you changed your point of view with the changing market share like Microsoft and Sony have switched PR tactics. 



Aura7541 on 24 January 2015
Ka-pi96 said:
Aura7541 said:
We know that Sony shipped 4.5 million PS4's in 2013 and sold 14.5 million PS4's to consumers in 2014. That means that the amount of shipments has to be greater than 19 million. Assuming that Sony shipped 500K more than it has sold to consumers in 2014, we're seeing 19.5 million shipments.

The main question is what did AMD meant when they said "almost" 30 million shipments? It can be 29.5M, 29.9M, or even 28.5M. Let's assume that a total of 29.5 million PS4 and X1's were sold by the end of 2014. Subtracting my guess of 19.5 million PS4 shipments, the X1's shipments total 10 million.

If my assumptions are right, then when MS said that "10 million X1's will have sold to retailers", the 10M shipments were meant as an end-of-the-year target.

Your figures are 500k too high. Sony themselves announced sell through to be 18.5m as of 3rd/4th January, not 19m.

I know, I added shipments from 2013 with sales to consumers from 2014. What I'm saying is total shipments are over 19M.



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thismeintiel on 24 January 2015
Landguy said:
thismeintiel said:
Landguy said:
So many absolutes being used here:
1. It's an absolute that sony announced it sold 18.5 million. - Probably true or accurate.
2. It's an absolute that AMD announced "nearly" 30 million. - Whatever nearly means
3. It's impossible for there only to be 500k consoles on the shelves. - I guess most people have no idea of stocking levels on Jan 1 at most retailers. Based on the reports, you couldn't find a PS4 in europe for 2 weeks after the holidays.
4. XB1 therefore is overtracked. - So, when we add fuzzy math of #2 and minus 1 we can only achieve #3?

And people here complain about the accuracy of the numbers on VGchartz?

Quite a bit of stretching in this post.  Are we really going to act like we don't know the meaning of nearly?  Really?  It means the exact same thing if they had said "almost 30M."  It's close to 30M, but not quite there.  No one EVER says nearly 30M if they mean its over 30M.

OK, lets say nearly =30 million.  So, Xb1 then is under tracked?  The problem isn't only the nearly 30 million number.  You ignored the rest of my post(common on these forums) to pick one part and complain about it or you accept the rest of my post as fact?  which way is it?

I agree with your numbered points...until you try to mock people using perfectly good math, not fuzzy at all, to come up with the conclusion the XBO is overtracked.  And if the number is exactly 30M (though nearly means it's less, maybe 29.8M), how does that equal the XBO being undertracked?  These would be shipped numbers, not sold to customer. So let's look at the "fuzzy" math.

The PS4 sold ~18.5M to customers in the same timeframe.  That means Sony has probably shipped around 19M, since there was no real issues with supply, except a few select places in the US and EU.  It may actually be more, but let's just go with 19M.  So that leaves 11M for the XBO.  VGC has the XBO selling ~10.8M.  Do you really think MS only had ~200K on shelves at the end of the year?  History does not support this number at all.  Even if we use the same 500K on shelves that we gave the PS4, then it is at least ~300K overtracked.  Of course, I think it'll be more than that.



 

DerNebel on 24 January 2015
AlexJones said:
OttoniBastos said:
Assuming that AMD has the right data(which kind of make sense really)

-We have almost 30 million shipped(lets assume ~29,5)
-Lets assume that AMD is talking about all the consoles shipped until january 3rd/4th.
-We know that PS4 sold 18,5 which implies something between 19-20 million shipped.(assuming that PS4 wasn't Supplie constrainted WW)
-That means that,in the best case scenario,Xone shipped 10,5 million consoles until january 3rd/4th.
-Assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,that means Xone sold something between 9-10 million until january 3rd/4th.

Of course this is the best case scenario for Xone,assuming that PS4 shipped only 19 million consoles until january 3rd/4th.

The worse case scenario,though, is PS4 shipped closer to 20.That means Xone shipped ~9,5.Which,assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,means something between 8-9 million consoles sold.

Of course this is the WORST POSSIBLE scenario for xone.

Mixing the best case with the Worst,Xone definitely sold something between 8-10 million WW.

Xone is,at the best case scenario,overtracked by 1 million.
Worst case,3 million(lol no).

3 million overtrack would actually bring the US:ROW ratio down in line with my expectations, actually.

There is no way that US takes up only 60% of Xbone sales. No freaking way.

3 million overtracked goes against any kind of logic.



Aura7541 on 24 January 2015
thismeintiel said:

I agree with your numbered points...until you try to mock people using perfectly good math, not fuzzy at all, to come up with the conclusion the XBO is overtracked.  And if the number is exactly 30M (though nearly means it's less, maybe 29.8M), how does that equal the XBO being undertracked?  These would be shipped numbers, not sold to customer. So let's look at the "fuzzy" math.

The PS4 sold ~18.5M to customers in the same timeframe.  That means Sony has probably shipped around 19M, since there was no real issues with supply, except a few select places in the US and EU.  It may actually be more, but let's just go with 19M.  So that leaves 11M for the XBO.  VGC has the XBO selling ~10.8M.  Do you really think MS only had ~200K on shelves at the end of the year?  History does not support this number at all.  Even if we use the same 500K on shelves that we gave the PS4, then it is at least ~300K overtracked.  Of course, I think it'll be more than that.

Microsoft confirmed that by the end of 2013, the company sold 3 million X1's to consumers (this was also the last time MS used sold-to-consumers figures). Not long after, MS said that they shipped 3.9 million X1's. So there might have been 700-900K X1's still on shelves by the end of 2014.



Ninsect on 24 January 2015
RolStoppable said:
Ninsect said:
walsufnir said:
Wait - last gen people were arguing about PS numbers because Sony used combined numbers, now this gen it is the other way round? And some people _now_ complain but didn't before? Funny :)

What is your point? We are saying we can never be sure about XB1 numbers until MS tell us that. Same can be said for PS3 and PSV

His point is that if Sony does something, then Ninsect will say it is OK.

So he's making a point on a false premise



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IFireflyl on 24 January 2015
Ninsect said:

So he's making a point on a false premise

Everyone in this thread is making a point based on incomplete/inaccurate information.