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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 and X1 shipped nearly 30 million consoles at the end of 2014 according to AMD

Angelv577 on 24 January 2015

Based on the information provided by Sony and AMD, we can estimate that xbox one is overtracked, by how much? depends of sony shipments and what does near 30m means.

Assuming full 30m shipped according to AMD and 19.5m shipped for ps4 (1m on store shelves), that leave to:

30m shipped - 19.5m shipped for ps4= 10.5m shipped for xbox one

11m sold through VGC - 10m sold through for xbox one ( assuming 500k on store shelves, I know it's much more)
= 1m overtracked

Assming AMD 29.5m shipped and 19m shipped for ps4:

29.5m - 19m ps4 shipped = 10.5m shipped for xbox one, assuming shipped = sold.
11m VGC - 10.5m = 500kovertracked for xbox one.

Assuming ps4 shipped = sold that means 18.5m shipped

29.5m shipped - 18.5m= 11m shipment for xbox one

It doesn't matter how you look at it, you will always find an overestimate numbers for xbox one, it will depends how much sony shipped and what does near 30m means.



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OttoniBastos on 24 January 2015
2008ProchargedGT said:
OttoniBastos said:
Assuming that AMD has the right data(which kind of make sense really)

-We have almost 30 million shipped(lets assume ~29,5)
-Lets assume that AMD is talking about all the consoles shipped until january 3rd/4th.
-We know that PS4 sold 18,5 which implies something between 19-20 million shipped.(assuming that PS4 wasn't Supplie constrainted WW)
-That means that,in the best case scenario,Xone shipped 10,5 million consoles until january 3rd/4th.
-Assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,that means Xone sold something between 9-10 million until january 3rd/4th.

Of course this is the best case scenario for Xone,assuming that PS4 shipped only 19 million consoles until january 3rd/4th.

The worse case scenario,though, is PS4 shipped closer to 20.That means Xone shipped ~9,5.Which,assuming that Xone wasn't supplie constrainted WW,means something between 8-9 million consoles sold.

Of course this is the WORST POSSIBLE scenario for xone.

Mixing the best case with the Worst,Xone definitely sold something between 8-10 million WW.

Xone is,at the best case scenario,overtracked by 1 million.
Worst case,3 million(lol no).


well you know what they say about assumptions lol

Yeah i know i used ao lot of this word lol

but the point,is giving this information it's safe to say that Xone is overtracked.By how much? it depends of how much this assumptions are right/wrong.



Insidb on 24 January 2015
Angelv577 said:
Based on the information provided by Sony and AMD, we can estimate that xbox one is overtracked, by how much? depends of sony shipments and what does near 30m means.

Assuming full 30m shipped according to AMD and 19.5m shipped for ps4 (1m on store shelves), that leave to:

30m shipped - 19.5m shipped for ps4= 10.5m shipped for xbox one

11m sold through VGC - 10m sold through for xbox one ( assuming 500k on store shelves, I know it's much more)
= 1m overtracked

Assming AMD 29.5m shipped and 19m shipped for ps4:

29.5m - 19m ps4 shipped = 10.5m shipped for xbox one, assuming shipped = sold.
11m VGC - 10.5m = 500kovertracked for xbox one.

Assuming ps4 shipped = sold that means 18.5m shipped

29.5m shipped - 18.5m= 11m shipment for xbox one

It doesn't matter how you look at it, you will always find an overestimate numbers for xbox one, it will depends how much sony shipped and what does near 30m means.

I said this before and I will say it again, "math works."



Kerotan on 24 January 2015

So until we get more reliable information are we assuming x1 heavily overtracked?



DonFerrari on 24 January 2015

Sony probably shipped in the 19-20M by 2014 end. (More likely closer to the center)... that makes X1 10-11M shipped (more likely the center as well)... with sold to customers 9.5-10.5M (closer to the upper middle)... which alignes with MS soon to sell to stores 10M (that a lot of us assumed by end of 2014 they would have that shipped) and NeoGaf rumours...

Yep VGC is 500k-1M overtracked on X1 (even after they downsized the number a lot in sight of PS4 PR).

And Kowen, how can you even say AMD have no idea of X1/PS4 shipments because inventory isn't kept lean?? Japanese way of production (and MS probably have the same since major suppliers are the same) is low inventory (on demand) way... and even if they weren't AMD can measure the rate at which they supply the products to factory and based on their knowledge of production they can infer output of both systems...

I'm a lot more likely to take their assumption than your 95% innacurate opinion.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari on 24 January 2015
Kerotan said:
So until we get more reliable information are we assuming x1 heavily overtracked?


Quite safe to make this assumption...



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Kerotan on 24 January 2015
DonFerrari said:
Kerotan said:
So until we get more reliable information are we assuming x1 heavily overtracked?


Quite safe to make this assumption...


Ok boss. Overtracked heavily for now it is.



Aura7541 on 24 January 2015
Kerotan said:
So until we get more reliable information are we assuming x1 heavily overtracked?

Pretty much. General consensus is that MS shipped ~10.5M X1's by the end of 2014. As I mentioned earlier, MS left 900K X1's on shelves by the end of 2013 (MS confirmed 3M sold-to-consumers and subsequently, announced 3.9M shipped). With more familiarity with the market, I doubt there were 900K X1's on shelves again. However, even with a generous guess like 500K, the X1 would be overtracked by 1 million.



GribbleGrunger on 24 January 2015

Perhaps 11m XB1 is actually right. I've been reading Gaf and it appears as if AMD is talking in terms of 'sold through' to customers and not 'shipped' in the sense we are normally used to:

We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.

Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.

So relative to historical, I think most people will say that historically, the game console shipments in this generation are higher than in the previous generation. And you can come up with all kinds of reasons for that; some of that is the price points that they've chosen. I think that certainly helped the holiday season. Some of that is its software titles that are available at a given point in time.

I think the main thing is as we look at any holiday season, we want to make sure that there's not a lot of inventory that's sitting with our customers, and we see that that's fairly well balanced. So that gives us confidence as you go into 2015 and you see new titles that are launched, and those come out, that it should be a fairly normal market.



 

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Aura7541 on 24 January 2015
GribbleGrunger said:

Perhaps 11m XB1 is actually right. I've been reading Gaf and it appears as if AMD is talking in terms of 'sold through' to customers and not 'shipped' in the sense we are normally used to:

We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.

Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.

So relative to historical, I think most people will say that historically, the game console shipments in this generation are higher than in the previous generation. And you can come up with all kinds of reasons for that; some of that is the price points that they've chosen. I think that certainly helped the holiday season. Some of that is its software titles that are available at a given point in time.

I think the main thing is as we look at any holiday season, we want to make sure that there's not a lot of inventory that's sitting with our customers, and we see that that's fairly well balanced. So that gives us confidence as you go into 2015 and you see new titles that are launched, and those come out, that it should be a fairly normal market.

But the publicly available data from Microsoft have been shipments. The only time we got sold through numbers from MS was at the beginning of 2014 and then, MS combined 360 & X1 shipments.