Mr Khan said:
I'm beginning to think they want to do parallel games, not identical ones. That something like Smash Bros 4 will be the way going forward, except that this time a lot of assets can be shared. Not all, but many, and more importantly engine code can be shared, so that instead of having to make Mario Kart 9 and Mario Kart 10, they can just make Mario Kart 9, have a handheld version and a console version maybe with some different tracks and different features, but the core engine work and basic character design is shared, making the "effort" of 1.25 games or 1.5 games, instead of 2 games, but still deliver for both platforms at once, or nearly so. Encourage this with crossbuy (or some form of bundling where the two games separately would cost $90.00, but bought together only cost $70.00) so that it doesn't discourage core Nintendo fans from getting both, and less-passionate fans can pick their choice.
Unless they have completely given up in their quest to bother to get any of Sony or Microsoft's third party support. Otherwise the handheld would hold the console back too much, if they were the same but for resolution capabilities. Two separate devices allows them to at least try at getting games built natively for the console experience.
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You've pretty much accurately described exactly what I think they will do.
New console and new handheld. Both share similar architexture. Handheld a bit more powerful than the Vita. Console a bit more powerful than the PS4. Almost every first party game will be available on both systems, but most follow the Smash 4 method of developement. Same core game; exclusive features to both that encourage owning each version in their own right. And even more, a "Mewtwo DLC-like" hook to encourage owning both. Everything is cross-buy and cross-save.
Handheld games would cost $40. Console games would cost $60. If you buy the $60 console version first, you get the full handheld version for free. If you buy the $40 handheld game first, you get a smaller console version for free, and it would cost $20 to upgrade to the full console version. If you don't upgrade, you'll have the core game on the console without all the console version's bells and whistles, aka the "$40 console version."
For example, say you bought Mario Kart 9 on your Nintendo handheld for $40. The game comes with 8 cups, but two of them are handheld exclusive. A year later, you buy the home console. You sign into your NNID, and you now have the game on your home console, but it only has 6 tracks because it is just the handheld version without the exclusive content. By paying the $20 upgrade, you get the 2 console exclusive cups, a bonus 2 cups for owning both versions, and any console exclusive features like the return of dual drivers from double dash and such because of the added power. It might even allow you to play the 2 handheld exclusive cups on the console now that you registered both.
And obviously, smaller games like Captain Toad, or 2D games would just be $40 or less on both platforms.