I originally disagreed with Kowen about the 'accumulated' sales of consoles this generation and said all I'm seeing is a shift in market share, but having given it more thought I think he's probably right. I do now think this gen is going to sell less consoles overall. So the only way the PS4 will 100m+ is IF it takes a 'huge' percentage of market share. Not impossible but not as likely as some people would like to think.

I don't think you need to be crazy to predict sales below 100mil. I think it won't crack that barrier and as others have said, this gen will likely be very frontloaded indeed.

People said it was crazy to think the PS3 wouldn't outsell the Wii just a year ago due to the PS2, but the key is you can't use that as a barometer of success in the future. Else the Wii would never have happened, or the Wii U. PS4 ain't gonna be selling millions in 2024 like the PS2 did

yeah traditional gens are too short.  5 years should be extended to 7 and give the PC components more time to come down so we can have more powerful consoles at lower prices when they do come.

100m is a pipe dream for every console this generation. Home and portable. PS4, Xbone, and WiiU combined wont outsell the PS2.

the xbone is allready holding back gamedevelopment, so its clear that we see a short gen this time.

Of course we can absolutely forget about who bought PS2 consoles after the gen ended and why it will not happen ever again.

Do you honestly believe that?

LOL LOL LOL at your signature, are you doing some type of reverse psychology where you hope for the worst in hopes that what actually happens is the best, or if you're actually serious, could we get some reasons for that? 

We might see a return to the normal gen cycle, so Ps4's sales legs might get cut by its predecessor. Then again, anything is possible. 100 million is not out of question, but I don't think Ps4 will come close touching the Ps2.

I don't get these predictions either. Especially those that see a retraction from last generation. Honestly, I think this may be the peak of console sales. PS4 and XBO are entering the tail end of the physical hardware era IMO. We are starting to see the shift to a digital future with PlayStation Now, but it is going to take at least another 5 years to get there even in first world contries.

I also don't get the whole short generation theory either. What are we going to see happen that would justify a new generation any time soon? PS4 and XBO are at the earliest going to see their first die shrinks this year. Then it is going to be another while before we see the next one. Anything that is significant enough to justify people to purchase new hardware is going to be much to expensive for at least another 4 years. It's going to take more than stacked DRAM and 20nm GPU's to produce a significant leap over PS4 and XBO at $400. Not to mention development time required. Even if they did rush out new hardware by say 2018, we would not see the benefits people expect tell 2020.

As I have been saying. The covienence these machines bring with OTT TV and ture next gen gaming, along with a multitude of other non gaming applications is going to be what pushes these consoles to heights we have never seen. It is for this reason, I do not see it being possible for either XBO or PS4 to sell less than their predecessors, and I expect at least one to become the defacto TV companion for many pushing it past the PS2 record. However, with the evelution of internet speeds, and the ever increasing cloud relience, I can see a major market retraction happening with PS5 and XB4. Nearly all TV's sold in a year from now will have access to multiple gaming streamming services, and multiple OTT Television services to go along with the already large variety of Movie and TV services and productivity apps already available. It is that nail, that is going to kill PS5 and XB4 in developed nations, as I see both Sony and Microsoft streaming their games to these televisions day one.