I honestly when comparing ps3/ps4 sales in Japan it's better to not allign launches and give PS3 the head start. Otherwise holiday's are never going to match up, and PS3 is going to have it's second holiday soon meaning there is no real comparing if ps4 is getting closer or not with some of the big titles coming up.

That said PS3 sold 1 million in Japan in 2008, PS4 is easily going to beat that this year.

I will not be surprised if it last even more then ps3

I don't think so. PS4 will sell around 8m there.

I'm not asking whether it will end up outselling it, but whether it'll catch up to it at some point.

2 months ago, you would have been called crazy for saying it could sell as much as PS3

Perhaps at some point, but the market isn't very console friendly, so it may be tough. People should also recall that PS3 was more expensive than PS4 was, so coming close to PS3's early sales is nothing amazing. LTD will be impossible though.

I think people are overestimating the effects of cross-gen PS3/PS4 games in "helping" PS4. There have been noticeable trends, where some western releases are opening higher on PS4, and Japanese IPs open higher on PS3, with very insignificant hardware boosts for PS4. Why are people expecting the likes of Persona 5, MGSV and DQH to do much to help the PS4 in the long run, when trends have shown otherwise. I understand FFXV and KH3 that's only for 8th gen, but the rest helping the PS4 significantly....there are doubts.

With so many big releases in 2015, PS4 should at least match or exceed PS3 numbers this year.

Well there are exclusives like Bloodborne, Disgaea 5, Type-0 (kind of, the FFXV demo will help)... And we've seen DQH boost PS4 sales even if it's cross gen. And a price cut is coming this year for sure.

So I think it will catch up.

Lifetime, yeah, it might be difficult.

Shitty Launch vs Dying Console Market
I think PS4 can catch up, but this is an interesting battle

Maybe in the short term, but i can't see the PS4 ending up on top LT.