Edit: I'm not talking about lifetime sales, just about PS4 catching up to PS3 at some point.

At the same point in time, PS3 had sold 1,157,000 units versus PS4's 1,013,000, meaning PS4 is 144,000 units behind. Both numbers from Media Create.

PS3 sold 1,180,000 units in the next full year from this point in time (VGC here, if someone has MC numbers please tell me). PS4 would need to sell about 1.3m units in 2015 to catch up. For reference, PS3 sold 1.1m in its 2nd full year.

Will it make it?

With games like Bloodborne, MGSV, Persona 5, Type-0, Yakuza... plus a price cut, I think it might make it. If FFXV realeases it's a near guarantee.

yes why not

Could happen, but only if the huge ones like Final Fantasy actually release in 2015. I don't see it beating PS3's LT sales for now however.

I wonder how much Dragon Quest Heroes will push the PS4 in Japan. Also hope it comes to the west because it looks like a fun game.

Yes... the big JP games will be launch in 2015/2016 to PS4.

Just persona will sell like 100k units.
Last time a mainline ff came out, sony sold 1m+ consoles ww for two weeks.

FFXIII sold 250k PS3 at launch... really a system seller in Japan.

Sony needs to make japanese bundles.

Disgaea bundle
Persona bundle
Dragon quest bundle(with the actual game)
Metal gear solid bundle
Bloodborne bundle
FF type-O bundle
FF15 bundle.

I think so, the PS4 will likely be home to 95% of Japanese titles with Nintendo having little third party support and Microsoft being irrelevant there. It will be the default system of major releases in 2015-2019 so i expect it to exceed PS3 sales even with the whole console market there contracting.

Ys if i remember ps3 had very bad weeks it was even outsold by xbox360