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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox Worldwide Software Flop

Barozi on 08 January 2015
alabtrosMyster said:
Barozi said:
certainly not. Just because there are less games appearing at the top doesn't mean that the sales are worse.

attach ratio (games per console)
PS4: 4.45 (official numbers, including digital sales 4.42)
X1: 4.31
WiiU: 4.73 (at the same time last year 3.58)

miniscule difference between X1 and PS4 (which both launched at nearly the same time) and almost 1 game more than WiiU at the same time last year.

Devs do not sell ratios, they sell games, in the absolute sense.

Let's say you have a market size of 100 games a week for all consoles combined, you know that 5 will be sold on PS4, 3 on XB1 and 2 on the Wii U, maybe each XB1 owner bought almost as many games as their PS4/Wii U counterparts, however the market on this machine is already satturated in therms of AAA titles... so big companies will start to look at ways to adjust their releases to not overflow the market on the machine(s) with smaller install bases, because they know that game X will prevent sales from game Y if it's released on XB1, because of market saturation.

This is why less titles will be released on a console with a much smaller install base, no matter how easy it would be to port them, especially if MS put any kind of barrier in place.

uhm okay, I don't quite see the connection.

The userbase (and more importantly the similar fanbase) is not that much lower to justify (from a pure financial persperctive) completely leaving out games because the X1 currently sold 7m less. The average X1 gamer buys just as many games as the PS4 gamer, so why choose to release a game on a 17m userbase when you could have 27m?
The games are so similar on PS4 and X1 and the attach ratio is nearly the same. That means, if the market was saturated for one console it would be saturated for the other one as well.



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eva01beserk on 08 January 2015
Barozi said:
alabtrosMyster said:
Barozi said:
certainly not. Just because there are less games appearing at the top doesn't mean that the sales are worse.

attach ratio (games per console)
PS4: 4.45 (official numbers, including digital sales 4.42)
X1: 4.31
WiiU: 4.73 (at the same time last year 3.58)

miniscule difference between X1 and PS4 (which both launched at nearly the same time) and almost 1 game more than WiiU at the same time last year.

Devs do not sell ratios, they sell games, in the absolute sense.

Let's say you have a market size of 100 games a week for all consoles combined, you know that 5 will be sold on PS4, 3 on XB1 and 2 on the Wii U, maybe each XB1 owner bought almost as many games as their PS4/Wii U counterparts, however the market on this machine is already satturated in therms of AAA titles... so big companies will start to look at ways to adjust their releases to not overflow the market on the machine(s) with smaller install bases, because they know that game X will prevent sales from game Y if it's released on XB1, because of market saturation.

This is why less titles will be released on a console with a much smaller install base, no matter how easy it would be to port them, especially if MS put any kind of barrier in place.

uhm okay, I don't quite see the connection.

The userbase (and more importantly the similar fanbase) is not that much lower to justify (from a pure financial persperctive) completely leaving out games because the X1 currently sold 7m less. The average X1 gamer buys just as many games as the PS4 gamer, so why choose to release a game on a 17m userbase when you could have 27m?
The games are so similar on PS4 and X1 and the attach ratio is nearly the same. That means, if the market was saturated for one console it would be saturated for the other one as well.

Not quite. If 5m on each side bought dragon age, that meas next month at most 5m for xbox will buy the next realease beacue they would still be playing dragon age, while for the ps4 12m still have nothing so the chnces re higher that the next game will sell at a sooner time.

I know its not perfect and to some it might not make sense(Im also not good with the words), but keep in mind that not everybody likes the same games, so having the biggest install base will benefict the most variiarity of games. For instanses the highest sellers on xbox are shoters and free games like unity and blackflag, so they make up the majority of that atach ratio, while a lot more games varie on the ps4.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Barozi on 08 January 2015
eva01beserk said:
Barozi said:

uhm okay, I don't quite see the connection.

The userbase (and more importantly the similar fanbase) is not that much lower to justify (from a pure financial persperctive) completely leaving out games because the X1 currently sold 7m less. The average X1 gamer buys just as many games as the PS4 gamer, so why choose to release a game on a 17m userbase when you could have 27m?
The games are so similar on PS4 and X1 and the attach ratio is nearly the same. That means, if the market was saturated for one console it would be saturated for the other one as well.

Not quite. If 5m on each side bought dragon age, that meas next month at most 5m for xbox will buy the next realease beacue they would still be playing dragon age, while for the ps4 12m still have nothing so the chnces re higher that the next game will sell at a sooner time.

I know its not perfect and to some it might not make sense(Im also not good with the words), but keep in mind that not everybody likes the same games, so having the biggest install base will benefict the most variiarity of games. For instanses the highest sellers on xbox are shoters and free games like unity and blackflag, so they make up the majority of that atach ratio, while a lot more games varie on the ps4.

No, your example would mean that X1 owners buy more software than PS4 owners. (attach rate 0.5 vs. 0.3)

The attach ratio is the same, that means every X1 owner owns as much games as a PS4 owner.
So IF 50% of X1 owners buy Dragon Age and only 30% of PS4 owners do the same (your example) then there have to be games where the PS4 version sells to 70% of its userbase and the X1 version to 50% of its userbase.
-> attach ratio = 1.0 for both
-> everyone is busy playing either the one or the other game
-> same chances for any company to release a game
-> one market is just as saturated as the other



DonFerrari on 08 January 2015

Why do people constantly forget that x1 SW includes 1-2 games for virtually any HW sold (with no extra cost) while ps4 had it for minority of HW?

Ps4 actual direct sales of SW have a better ratio than X1.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

method114 on 08 January 2015
Troll_Whisperer said:
Relative to its install base, sales are pretty good. Of course with the smaller install base than PS4, that means less software.

About the exclusives, one of them was pretty niche (Sunset Overdrive) and the other is one of the biggest launch fuck-ups in recent memory (Halo MCC).


Still can't believe Halo MCC had such a horrible launch. Was it Karma for Xbox fans making fun of Driveclub? Similar to win they made fun of the lizard squad DDOS attacks and then had the same happen to xbox live.



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eva01beserk on 08 January 2015
Barozi said:
eva01beserk said:
Barozi said:

uhm okay, I don't quite see the connection.

The userbase (and more importantly the similar fanbase) is not that much lower to justify (from a pure financial persperctive) completely leaving out games because the X1 currently sold 7m less. The average X1 gamer buys just as many games as the PS4 gamer, so why choose to release a game on a 17m userbase when you could have 27m?
The games are so similar on PS4 and X1 and the attach ratio is nearly the same. That means, if the market was saturated for one console it would be saturated for the other one as well.

Not quite. If 5m on each side bought dragon age, that meas next month at most 5m for xbox will buy the next realease beacue they would still be playing dragon age, while for the ps4 12m still have nothing so the chnces re higher that the next game will sell at a sooner time.

I know its not perfect and to some it might not make sense(Im also not good with the words), but keep in mind that not everybody likes the same games, so having the biggest install base will benefict the most variiarity of games. For instanses the highest sellers on xbox are shoters and free games like unity and blackflag, so they make up the majority of that atach ratio, while a lot more games varie on the ps4.

No, your example would mean that X1 owners buy more software than PS4 owners. (attach rate 0.5 vs. 0.3)

The attach ratio is the same, that means every X1 owner owns as much games as a PS4 owner.
So IF 50% of X1 owners buy Dragon Age and only 30% of PS4 owners do the same (your example) then there have to be games where the PS4 version sells to 70% of its userbase and the X1 version to 50% of its userbase.
-> attach ratio = 1.0 for both
-> everyone is busy playing either the one or the other game
-> same chances for any company to release a game
-> one market is just as saturated as the other

Did I ever say the attach ratio was not the same?  The example was not saying that they sell the same amount. They sell almost the same on the most popular games like call of duty and destiny, meaning that other games tend to sell a lot less because the atach rate is the same, cuz for one game to sell great, to even it out the others tend to sell a lot less.  There is no denying that xbox fans tend to favour a ganre. And if thats the case, whe a big game they like will come on a month, other devs will most likely avoid that month for the x1 or avoid the x1 copletlly if they know they wont buy it. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk on 08 January 2015
method114 said:
Troll_Whisperer said:
Relative to its install base, sales are pretty good. Of course with the smaller install base than PS4, that means less software.

About the exclusives, one of them was pretty niche (Sunset Overdrive) and the other is one of the biggest launch fuck-ups in recent memory (Halo MCC).


Still can't believe Halo MCC had such a horrible launch. Was it Karma for Xbox fans making fun of Driveclub? Similar to win they made fun of the lizard squad DDOS attacks and then had the same happen to xbox live.

Remember they also made fun of remakes when the last of us was anounced



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Joyono on 08 January 2015

You haters need to get a life. Sunset Overdrive is an amazing game that sold VERY well on the XOne and vgchartz doesn't include digital sales. Sunset overdrive and future sequels will never release on the indie station or PC.

Deal with it.

Dealt with,

-Mr Khan



DonFerrari on 08 January 2015
kowenicki said:
maths can be difficult it seems.


Yes, can you believe that some people even say 13 is greater than 33?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CosmicSex on 08 January 2015

This is why I made the argument that Beyo 2 wasn't a flop. When the game sells more than a much more hyped exclusive on a platform with a bugger base... you gotta keep things relative and proportional.