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Forums - Sales - PS4 and Xbox One adjusted down

Puppyroach on 07 January 2015

I understand VGC reasoning behind adjusting X1 as well, since they probably base some of the math on the relative share they have both sold at retailers. However, I think they should wait in this case until the quarterly results, I have s strong sense that they will have to adjust X1 up a bit then.



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CosmicSex on 07 January 2015
kowenicki said:
Funny that. So the only reason to down the ONE is the fact that the PS4 was overtracked. How very scientific.

I'd have waited until after the financials if I was them.


The problem is with this is that Microsoft has been very shady about actual sold through numbers.  We can only ever speculate about what the numbers really are until Microsoft gives us official numbers.  There is no way around it.  At least we know the PS4 sold 18.5+ million.  Hopefully at the very least Microsoft will give us shipped numbers for the Xbox One alone.   We can make up numbers all day, but in the end, its just guesswork.   



SamuelRSmith on 07 January 2015

My guess is that he has formulas with various weights and inputs to pump out the numbers, which may work across platforms (ie, if he knows one region typically over-or-under represents a particular console, so if you have numbers for console X in a region, you can make some assumptions about console Y).

He (I guess) modified those weights to get the new PS4 number, and thus also got a new X1 number.



LordLichtenstein on 07 January 2015


October 4th - December 20th

316,427

224,353

290,742

128,523

262,003

112,740

256,664

106,666

271,233

189,763

431,487

406,975

400,077

355,520

507,742

407,678

970,245

946,213

648,059

505,630

681,241

464,955

717,582

545,968


gerryd2704 on 07 January 2015

Thats why I have taken VGChart numbers with a grain of salt these past few years. They are only estimates. Still great sales for PS4 though. I don't think Xone will ever come close to their sales like PS3 did with X360.



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CosmicSex on 07 January 2015
kowenicki said:


"I dont expect them to release sell through numbers.  But they might and they might show explicit shipped numbers which may result in more adjustments, why not wait for 3 weeks.  Its silly."

But in any event, basing xbox one numbers purely on adjusted ps4 numbers is good you think? 

 

This depends on where the numbers came from.  For example, it looks like the numbers came from ROW.  Now, it may be the case where all ROW numbers are largely estimated based on similar formulas.  Therefore, if PS4 and Xbox One ROW numbers are calculated using a similar format, overtracked PS4 ROW numbers would preclude overtracked Xbox One ROW numbers.  



ethomaz on 07 January 2015

kowenicki said:

"I dont expect them to release sell through numbers.  But they might and they might show explicit shipped numbers which may result in more adjustments, why not wait for 3 weeks.  Its silly."

But in any event, basing xbox one numbers purely on adjusted ps4 numbers is good you think?

I don't even understand what you mean... I replied to your comments and said anything more about.

It is silly do say wait financials numbers when you won't have them lol

But you know that and being silly is your choice after all... continue in that bealtiful way.



Intrinsic on 07 January 2015
kowenicki said:
LordLichtenstein said:
kowenicki said:
Funny that. So the only reason to down the ONE is the fact that the PS4 was overtracked. How very scientific.

I'd have waited until after the financials if I was them.


Very unprofessional.


You could say that.   I imagine it comes from the maths... no doubt a simple correlation of the consoles over the periods since release.  But since that correlation clearly alters during the holidays and this is the first proper holiday period anyway... it seems a rather simplistic and naive approach when the financial are only a few weeks away.  Better to wait imo.

one thing is certain though. as per Sony's announcement they said they sold 4.1M consoles in the holiday period. Not a chance XB1 worldwide holiday window matches that. so it makes sense adjusting the XB1 numbers if PS4 numbers are adjusted too.

And you know ms will not spell out sold numbers in their financials. they don't even separate XB1 data from 360 shipment data. 



Frogger on 07 January 2015

Wii U numbers weren't adjusted? There's no way those two were off by so much, but the Wii U was accurate.



SamuelRSmith on 07 January 2015
kowenicki said:

I agree.  But this model will be trying to cope with new consoles in the "new world order" of this gen for the consoles.  Clearly the model from the last gen wont work so it will be brand new and as a result all over the place in these early stages (as evidenced recently) thats inevitable and even acceptable.  But, why not wait for the chance of some new data and then adjust.  Its only 3 weeks. 


Well, I can't read the mind of whoever made the decision to publish the numbers (I'm guessing ioi?), if I was in the position of publishing the numbers I would have taken it. Why? Because of the model was obviously wrong last week, and so the numbers are wrong, by making these adjustments the numbers are, in theory at least, "more correct". In 3 weeks we'll get more data to feedback into the system, and the model will be updated again, and it could likely have an effect on PS4's sales too.

The more cynical incentive is that adjustment numbers generate more interest, thus more discussion and page hits. Why just get that bump in three weeks time, when you can also get it now?

Also "it's only 3 weeks" 3 weeks in VGC-land is huge. Hell, 3 days ago people were thinking that the PS4 was about a million overtracked.