Half a million sold in retail alone (plus whatever digital sales) is not a "flop". It's not a resounding success either, but it's not a failure. And it has legs.

if bayonetta 2 managed to sell 500k in 3 months then it did better than expected. Considering that the first title only managed to sell 1.35 million in 7 months with the combined sales of ps3 and xbox 360 versions(meaning that bayo 1 sold about 700k in each console) and that both consoles had and installbase between 30 million and 40 million each back then, then 500 k is quite good for an installbase of just 7million on wii u's case, not to mention that there are still many month left to reach the 7 months to do a more fair comprision

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/119514/Sega_Sammy_Post_Profits_As_Bayonetta_Ships_135_Million.php

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Whenever a game doesn't do what some hoped it seems to always come back to install base and the relative percentages of userbase that bought the game. I'd be really curious to see anyone able to analyze exactly what effect increased userbase has on the sales of any given title. What I've seen certainly indicates that it isn't a linear thing and that you stop getting any benefit from a higher install base after a certain point. That said it's difficult to find fair comparisons for such a study so I used yearly releases of Madden on 360 compared to userbase and found that after the userbase reached 5 million in the US Madden got no further benefits and flattened out in sales. Someday maybe I'll try it for a few more annual series and see if that's consistent.

I'm inclined to disagree with the flop label. Its got a good shot at 600K to years end. Consider when Boyenetta released on X360 in 2009 it had done less than 100K by years end. It did another 626K the following year. It has yet to break the million.

On Ps3 the sales profile was slightly better but quite similar. It took over 3 years on PS3 to break a million. Bayo2 will break the million on Wii U by the end of next year.

So given the Wii Us install base Bayo2 has done FAR better - both in absolute and relative terms given the length of time it has been on the market.

It's interesting question, for sure, but seems an incredibly difficult thing to quantify. Maybe even impossible. All things being equal, of course it's only to the good to have a larger possible audience, but all things are pretty much never equal.

One thing that seems pretty clear is that the more niche the game, the less the install base seems to matter. Shmups all seem to sell about the same (dismal) numbers whether they've been on the SNES or Genesis, Saturn or PS1, Dreamcast or PS2, 360 or PS3. So I'd say it's a misconception to think of the install base as an audience instead of a multitude of smaller, sometimes overlapping audiences. The most important thing is not to aim for the largest install base period but to meet your target audience where they live.

You're right it's a tough one, I just compared FIFA sales in EUrope to the install base on PS3 at the time (in europe as well) and it's basically a linear relationship from 2007 until 2012 which is not what i was expecting based on the same thing I did with madden in NA where things were quite obviously asymptotic.  I figured all the yearly released games would follow similar to Madden.  I'll have to think about this a bit someday and see if I could come up with some way to do this for a large number of games at once, perhaps based on genre.  Would be a pain in the ass but it might be interesting.  

Agree with the second paragraph, you really need to just find your audience and maintain it wherever that happens to be.  A terrifying prospect for a new dev with a new IP I'm sure.  

The only "M" rated game I think is missing on the Wii U is Grand Theft Auto V.  I'm sure there are others who feel this way and have many more suggestions.  History will never call Bayonetta 2 a flop. 

"The most important thing is not to aim for the largest install base period but to meet your target audience where they live."

This !  Times 1000 !  And its essentially why 3rd parties are afraid to compete with Nintendo on their own platform.

install base is just one of the factors not being accounted, we also have to consider the time bayo 2 has been on the market compared to bayo1 and the sales it did in 7 months while bayo2 has only been around for 3 months on the streets

it's actually really important that nintendo keep bringing mature rated games to their console. Their brand was extremely damaged by the wii. They need to change their image to Joe Gamer and that is going to be a long long process. But highly acclaimed "hardcore" exclusives are one of the biggest keys to getting back in the game. Don't get me wrong, there are other things nintendo needs to work on badly, but this is simply one solution to some of their biggest problems.