They can win, but they will need a paradigma shift for that to happen.
We already know, from Miyamoto's own words, that Nintendo will focus on the core gamer.
But how they do it is key aspect to that change.
First and foremost, they need to change how they are perceived.
In people's minds they are a kids/family oriented company; they make unique games that no one else does. And that is exactly part of the problem: the games they make and the games 3rd parties make (with a few exceptions) seem like worlds apart.
And if anything gamers have shown that it's the 3rd party world that want to live in for the most of their time: Halos, Gears of War, Uncharteds, Assassin's Creeds, Forzas, Gran Turismos, Call of Dutys, Destinys, etc., etc. These are the games core gamers want the most.
If Nintendo really wants to be perceived they can't just throw a Bayonetta 2 once or twice a year in their line-up. They need 3rd parties kinda games on their consoles, exclusive to their console.
What i mean is, for every Mario there's a Halo, for every Zelda, a Uncharted, etc. etc.
They need to seriously expand their offerings with genres that have proven time and time again that are what core gamers are looking for.
Just having ports will no longer convence gamers because this is a race between 3 companies, not two. And the mass market is not going to fully support 3 consoles - and they never did - if there isn't at least one that is completely different (like Wii was).
If they can't create a line-up of exclusive titles that covers the genres that core gamers like, then, it doesn't matter how much they talk to 3rd parties and how many titles they bring to Nintendo's consoles. If all gamers see in Nintendo's side is ports, they just won't bother.
And the thing is, they can do it if they streamline their production. If they do that, they'll have enough manpower to try develop those new franchises and show people that thei console isn't just Mario, Zelda, DK + a few core gamers' games.
they'll show that they have a diverse line-up every year and that is what will attract gamers, and consequently, developers, who will see that there's a market for their games in Nintendo's world.
Also, account systems, a great looking console, will go a long way!