How do you guys think PS4 will hit 20 million?


Here is my best guess :)


Dec 06 - 16,566,530 (713,315)
Dec 13 - 17,441,530 (875,000)
Dec 20 - 18,716,530 (1,275,000)
Dec 27 - 19,466,530 (750,000)
Jan  03 - 20,016,530 (550,000)

Sneaking suspicion that its under tracked as it is. 

Sure :)

But its sales th first was anything but 20 mn or am I missing something? It is incredible the sales it has had this year and it might reach 20 m by jan/feb which would be impressive, but nowhere Close to 20 mn fo a 12 month period.

Since you are new here I'll help you out. 30% drop for the week after BF was expected, them it will raise inútil christma week and the week after a drop and january a sharp drop. So the only week with a small possibility of under 700k is that. If you said 700-1M then it would be a good number even if christmas week is expected to be over it. Another thing to take in question is that ps4 have been undertracked almost everytime and every week.

But if ps4 sells all weeks of December 2014 under 700k you Will get my respect don't worry.

To bad you already lost your first week because it is over 700k. Even if by 13k that is already out of the bounderies you set. 

4 million last year (Nov. + Dec.) and 16-17 million this year.

Next year 20+ million.

What makes you so sure I am new here? Maybe I am a long time lurker?

Since I am only doing 100k steps and 500k respectively, I am still right unless it reaches 50k over my prediction or 250k respectively, but thanks for showing me where you come from. If it is 18.53k or even 18.7 in January I was prolly completely wrong for you. :)

When you give an interval without tolerances them I can't give you the owww it is still roundable to 700k... If I said WiiU were going to sell let's say 200k but it sold 160k or 240k would that mean basically the same because other options would be 100 or 300k??? Nope.

What make me think that? Low post count, coming to downplay sony sales, assumption that PS4 won't have any week over 700k WW during december even if the week after BF was already over it... or you are new, or you are an alt or you are bad at predicting.

This is a guessing game. Even VGC is just guessing. Do I as a "newbie" have to explain you "professional" this site? Do you really think those 713,315 are an exact number? Do you expect me to say 348,345 to 735,423 max per week? 17,934,722  to 18,563,291 at the end of 2014?

Seriously... lol...

Yeah well, now you have the tolerances, and those weekly sales really dont matter anyway. This thread is about it reaching 20 million, which I doubt and said 18 to 18.5 million instead, and I would still be basically right if it stayed below 20 million, but of course I wouldnt be an ass if it was like 19,796,326, because that difference could be tolerances.

We will see.

Nope, there is a difference between guess and estimative... even RoW numbers are what we would call guestimate based on some algorithms ioi pulled (they are quite of, but have a method)... I now exactly what those numbers represent, and already discussed with ioi why not put round numbers, but he explained that statisticaly he must put the exact number of his estimative to give the confidence interval. What you did wasn't that, you gave a round number and now want to say it was supposed to accept as much as 50k over 700 or under 400k to be inside your expectation when you didn't put that before.

You were the one that brought the 400-700 which was more torwards downplaying sales than anything else... you still haven't explained how it will sell under 700k everyweek if even on the week after NPD (which will probably be the lower week, perhaps only bigger than the week ending on January 3rd), so your point is still open.

And if you estimate 18-18.5M and it end up selling 19.7M how would you say you were right when you were more of the mark then people expecting 20M?? That is kind crazy.

And you also didn't answer to the undertracking going on PS4 for basically the begining of the year.... if you are indeed a long time lurker what were more or less the PS4 numbers on VGC during the milestones announcements?? You don't need to even give exact number, just give us an "estimative" of how off they were each time.