But how can someone predict less than 700k week all December when the first week is up? Are we saying that the numbers are wrong? Just to clarify because it's an insurmountable logical trap for me. In other words, what metrics are we using; official announcements or chartz for making predictions.

I think people need to define what measures they are using for predictions and what source they will use to qualify it's accuracy. We know chartz isn't accurate but if we make predictions, are we bound to ioi 's results with respect to adjustments?

Don't need to make fresh post... just keep under 3 on the tree and you will be fine.

Sure anyone can make any predictions anyone wants... if it is completely irreal certainly someone will call the person for it. And we always have serious arguments in here....

If he done a prediction thread of his prediction you can be sure it would be necrobumped right or wrong from someone that want to make he fells idiot or very good at it. You know which fanbase would choose each situation. We have several gloating necrobumps in here.... and we also have some guys that make several threads and them if any of them is right he will say he is good at predicting because of it.

And when I called him out he said he is using 50k tolerance on that big interval.... so it isn't really above his range....

Nope, there is a difference between guess and estimative... even RoW numbers are what we would call guestimate based on some algorithms ioi pulled (they are quite of, but have a method)... I now exactly what those numbers represent, and already discussed with ioi why not put round numbers, but he explained that statisticaly he must put the exact number of his estimative to give the confidence interval. What you did wasn't that, you gave a round number and now want to say it was supposed to accept as much as 50k over 700 or under 400k to be inside your expectation when you didn't put that before.

You were the one that brought the 400-700 which was more torwards downplaying sales than anything else... you still haven't explained how it will sell under 700k everyweek if even on the week after NPD (which will probably be the lower week, perhaps only bigger than the week ending on January 3rd), so your point is still open.

And if you estimate 18-18.5M and it end up selling 19.7M how would you say you were right when you were more of the mark then people expecting 20M?? That is kind crazy.

And you also didn't answer to the undertracking going on PS4 for basically the begining of the year.... if you are indeed a long time lurker what were more or less the PS4 numbers on VGC during the milestones announcements?? You don't need to even give exact number, just give us an "estimative" of how off they were each time.

I would still be right because I said it would be under 20 million while almost everybody here says it will be at least 20 million. Not on my estimation auf 18 to 18.5 though of course. WTF are you thinking? I made several statements, the most prominent one that I think its not going to be 20 million, but less and you ignoring some of them like you feel?
And I didnt even say I would be right when its 19.7. Read again! You would say I was wrong when it would be 18.53, while I wouldnt say I was right (concerning the less than 20 million statement) when it would be 19.7! You looking at it like that is laughable with VGC numbers.

A couple of hundred thousands a month sometimes. I dont keep track of it that exactly. But thats nothing unusual for VGC, because they are GUESSING (same thing for me as estimating). That hasnt only happened to the PS4 in VGC history. Why the fuck do you think I am using such high tolerances???

I explained my low numbers in my first post. In any case that week estimate isnt even one of my main points, I just said that as a very rough measure. The less than 20 million and 18 to 18.5 million are.
I will be sure to write a fucking novel next time I know youre around, so you dont find any loopholes you can use for your side of the story. But I guess that wont be enough, since youre not shy putting words in my mouth either.

You know whats awesome? PS4 fanboys think I am wrong because I take too low numbers while Xbone fanboys think my numbers are too high (and think that VGC is crap anyway because its Sony biased). :)

It seems your tolerance margin didn't cover your number even when so big. On first week 750k+ (I told you about adjustments) and second week over 780k (before adjustments), besides that the numbers will be adjusted again in february or whenever sony gives more numbers. When in the third week it goes over 800k and in xmas it cross 1M what will you say? 20M not crossed? But when adjustments put it over 20M will you give another excuse saying if it isn't 21M then you weren't wrong since for you that isn't over 20M?