Because i hate all this overtracked and undertracked talk just based on a feeling, i'll do this topic.
I only want to discuss possible sold through numbers based on offical shipped figures and Sony sold through pr at an objective base.
If u want to talk about "domination" or possible under- / overtracked just because it's ur favourite console, go to the weekly hardware VGC update topic and  please leave this one.

Sice the last quarter, we're lucky and Sony now give a full breakdown on console shipments.
The result is this picture:

4.5m shipped end of December 2013
4.2m sold through as of 28th December 2013
7.5m shipped end of March 2014
7m sold through as of 6th April 2014
10.2m shipped end of June 2014
10m sold through as of 10th August 2014
13.5m shipped end of September 2014
...

This is just my personal opinion and thoughts:
Based on the June to August sell through of the shipped figure and general distibution process, where u need about 1 1/2 month of sales on shelfs, at warehouse and in transit, if u dont want any shortages or use planes to ship ur consoles, i expect about 13.5m sold through as of first week November.
Based on historical Playstation shipment breakdowns over the different quarter each year, Sony shipps ~45% of the whole calendar year sales in the holiday quarter. Sony shipped 9m Ps4 from January 2014 - September 2014. Based on the Ps4 launch in Japan and the shortages early this year, i can see this 45% quote being slighly lower for this holiday quarter. 7.35m would be 45%. I'll go with 6.5m. That would also make a nice 20m figure, Sony could use for Pr statements.
Also Sony expect to ship 9.4m consoles (Ps4 + Ps3) form October 2014 to March 2015. Ps3 will have a big decline and be just a small part of that figure, but this estimate from Sony should be conservative, like all theire other forecasts. (They expected to sell in 5m Ps4 until March 2014 and sold 7.5)

I still have a feeling *caught* that my numbers could be a slight overestimate nevertheless :D


...
13.5m sold through as of 1st or 8th November
20m shipped end of December 2014
20m sold through as of 14th or 21st February 2015
*italic are no offical numbers and just my estimate

I will update the opening post, if we get new figures form Sony

sources:
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/14q2_sonypre.pdf slide 24
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-global-cumulative-sales-surpass-42-million-239114161.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-sales-surpass-70-million-units-worldwide-255558241.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-sales-surpass-10-million-units-worldwide-270947031.html

I'll correct that.
It's bad wording.
i just wanted to point out, that this is my personal opinion and thoughts about the possoible future shipped and sold through numbers based on MORE than just a feeling, like most other here do.

You want to discuss oficial numbers? There is nothing to discuss, just accept and move on... But it's funny that even though you claim historically they ship 45% during holidays yous preffere to cut 850k consoles just so they would seem like a smaller number and wouldn't sell through 20M before the year end... seems like quite the well put OP.

I think your opinion is way overtracked.

It's #Overtrekd

That too.

What is funny? The only funny thing is u imply me bias.
"Based on the Ps4 launch in Japan and the shortages early this year, i can see this 45% quote being slighly lower for this holiday quarter."

45% is just the average. Sometimes it's higher and sometimes its lower. And this year is the perfect canditate to be below that, because the number for Q1 2014 was unusal high due to Japan launch and even Q3 could be bigger than normal because the biggest new IP launch Destiny and the co-marketing + the white bundle.

Edit:
What do u think? Sell through above 20m until end of 2014 is a given?
And based on what?

Let's try and keep things on topic please.

So you take 3pp because of japanese release (300k consoles) but ignore that it could be even higher to prevent shortages on holidays... seeing the record breaking numbers one seems more probable than the other... PS4 shipping figures is basically tied with Wii, so I don't why suddenly it would drop just to meet your "prediction".

I think 20M is a possibility, not a certainty, but if going by "opinions" that it will barely ship 20M then that would be impossible.

What do u mean by 3pp?
Japan sold through was ~320k fist weekend and about 370k fist weekend + fist week.
The rumored initial shipment was 450k. The fist few weeks were also strong sales with 500k sold through in just 5 weeks. Some more shipped than sold through.
If the console would have launched in November, too we had just ~ 8.4m Ps4 shiped from January to September (It was not due to supply shortage)
In that case alone the 45% quote would be below 6.9m units.

And now i just take away 400k units (what would be just a half December week), because of the stronger than usual sales in September.

I can tell u, why the PS4 will drop below the Wii shipped figures. Wii was a Holiday sales beast. The Ps4 is still a Playsation, not a Wii, that millions of partens bought for theire kids. Just look at sales figures from games like Just Dance, Disney Infintiy or Skylander. Often even the Xb1 sells more than the Ps4 version in the US, while having a lower installbase. Xb360, WiiU and Wii sell way more.

But even if Sony will ship 20.5m im kind of spot on. I doesn' change much.