Because i hate all this overtracked and undertracked talk just based on a feeling, i'll do this topic.
I only want to discuss possible sold through numbers based on offical shipped figures and Sony sold through pr at an objective base.
If u want to talk about "domination" or possible under- / overtracked just because it's ur favourite console, go to the weekly hardware VGC update topic and please leave this one.
Sice the last quarter, we're lucky and Sony now give a full breakdown on console shipments.
The result is this picture:
4.5m shipped end of December 2013
4.2m sold through as of 28th December 2013
7.5m shipped end of March 2014
7m sold through as of 6th April 2014
10.2m shipped end of June 2014
10m sold through as of 10th August 2014
13.5m shipped end of September 2014
...
This is just my personal opinion and thoughts:
Based on the June to August sell through of the shipped figure and general distibution process, where u need about 1 1/2 month of sales on shelfs, at warehouse and in transit, if u dont want any shortages or use planes to ship ur consoles, i expect about 13.5m sold through as of first week November.
Based on historical Playstation shipment breakdowns over the different quarter each year, Sony shipps ~45% of the whole calendar year sales in the holiday quarter. Sony shipped 9m Ps4 from January 2014 - September 2014. Based on the Ps4 launch in Japan and the shortages early this year, i can see this 45% quote being slighly lower for this holiday quarter. 7.35m would be 45%. I'll go with 6.5m. That would also make a nice 20m figure, Sony could use for Pr statements.
Also Sony expect to ship 9.4m consoles (Ps4 + Ps3) form October 2014 to March 2015. Ps3 will have a big decline and be just a small part of that figure, but this estimate from Sony should be conservative, like all theire other forecasts. (They expected to sell in 5m Ps4 until March 2014 and sold 7.5)
I still have a feeling *caught* that my numbers could be a slight overestimate nevertheless :D
...
13.5m sold through as of 1st or 8th November
20m shipped end of December 2014
20m sold through as of 14th or 21st February 2015
*italic are no offical numbers and just my estimate
I will update the opening post, if we get new figures form Sony
sources:
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/14q2_sonypre.pdf slide 24
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-global-cumulative-sales-surpass-42-million-239114161.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-sales-surpass-70-million-units-worldwide-255558241.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-sales-surpass-10-million-units-worldwide-270947031.html
