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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will the Xbox One's baseline be next year?

 

Where do you see the baseline?

30-40k 26 15.12%
 
41-50k 8 4.65%
 
51-60k 17 9.88%
 
61-70k 35 20.35%
 
71-80k 24 13.95%
 
81-90k 29 16.86%
 
91-100k 11 6.40%
 
101-110k 5 2.91%
 
111-120k 2 1.16%
 
Over 120k 15 8.72%
 
Total:172

As low as sub 50k as high as 70k a week since all signs point to bump being temporary.
With deals over holiday fever over and a possible bump jump back to 399, sales will plummet from the current status. Overall January sales very serious chance of being sub 200k.



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askel50 said:

Because PS4's sales aren't front loaded? Come on, the thing has no decent exclusive software and the price is still too high for the average buyer. Most people are waiting for either a price reduction or some must have 1st party game. As for the X1 it depends on the pricing and on how things go this holiday. If MS wins by a considerable margin in US/UK the hype will work in their favour as it did for PS4 last year and if they choose to keep the price advantage the trend won't change until sony does something.

Bolded: The PS4 has nothing to do with the question I'm asking, so why bring it to the conversation. In any case, you'd expect a console going up in price dropping more than one staying at the same price.

Italics: That makes no sense and doesn't help whatever your case is. If people are waiting now, it makes no difference to its baseline next year... if anything, it would suggest sales can't drop because they're already on the low "waiting mode". And again, off topic.

Just tell us what you think the Xbox One's baseline will be and stay on topic.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Troll_Whisperer said:

Italics: That makes no sense and doesn't help whatever your case is. If people are waiting now, it makes no difference to its baseline next year... if anything, it would suggest sales can't drop because they're already on the low "waiting mode". And again, off topic.

Just tell us what you think the Xbox One's baseline will be and stay on topic.


Most people are waiting until it reaches the sub $299 region or it has exceptionally good exclusive game, the ones that buy are the ones that already planned to buy it at the first opportunity. So your argument

"However, this got me thinking that many current sales might also have been brought forward from buyers that were going to buy it eventually."

makes no sense. The same can be said for all the consoles.

January sales will be low. Are always low. But what it matters is who come out first because that will establish a positive trend for the rest of the year.



I say 67 k for the beginning of januar, then drop even less than 50k near march, if nothing help the Xone like titanfall this year.



If they really raise the Price again, I think the numbers will drop like a rock in january, even sub 50k doesn't sound unrealistic to me. If the price tag stays at 349, 75k sounds about right.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

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askel50 said:

Most people are waiting until it reaches the sub $299 region or it has exceptionally good exclusive game, the ones that buy are the ones that already planned to buy it at the first opportunity. So your argument

"However, this got me thinking that many current sales might also have been brought forward from buyers that were going to buy it eventually."

makes no sense. The same can be said for all the consoles.

January sales will be low. Are always low. But what it matters is who come out first because that will establish a positive trend for the rest of the year.

But you're supporting my argument. People are waiting now. What will change next year to bring PS4 sales down? Remember that in the italics part you were referring to the PS4, not the Xbox One.

Bolded: not to the same degree. A 50$ temporary price reduction with two games is going to bring forward more people. Plus so what if the same can be said of all consoles? The OP never said PS4 isn't gonna drop anyway, you realise that? It's you who brought up the comparison. So stop this console war bullshit.

If you want to participate, tell us what you think the baseline will be and move on. Otherwise stop bothering to post in this thread.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

around the 80k probably. i see it falling hard in EU and rest of the world and UK and USA will carry it. its just a guess though, i could be totally wrong.



Hi guys and girls,

in my opinion the xbox 1 will do much better than it's first year I am also convinced that with phil at the helm it won't go back to it's old price point.80k + baseline.

and also he will make sure the x1 will have something to play the whole year through



Don,t be Fanboys,Be Gamefans,Play games 4ever...GAME ON(msn)

                                     

askel50 said:

Most people are waiting until it reaches the sub $299 region or it has exceptionally good exclusive game, the ones that buy are the ones that already planned to buy it at the first opportunity. So your argument

"However, this got me thinking that many current sales might also have been brought forward from buyers that were going to buy it eventually."

makes no sense. The same can be said for all the consoles.

January sales will be low. Are always low. But what it matters is who come out first because that will establish a positive trend for the rest of the year.

I know no good will come from this. Something about your low post count and no user pic screams bitter returning member that has been banned or newb.

He's right that everything you are saying has nothing to do with answering his question. And he's also right that what you are saying, if taken to apply to the PS4 mean that sales of the PS4 can only get better. The XB1 has seen a price drop to $350 and as much as two games being offered with that. That is the sole reason that its sales has shot up to match/exceed/near that of the PS4. The PS4 outside BF has pretty much remained the same all year so the sales that it has now are "its own baseline". There is no dropping here cause its already on its baseline. This is the worst the PS4 will potentially ever sell.

We have seen how the XB1 sold at price parity with teh PS4. Its baseline was significantly lower than what it is now and what remaining at $350 will yeild. So with the possibility of the price going back up (which I doubt) its comon sense to expect its baseline to be more affected post holidays than that of the PS4. It will be higher than what it was, but still lower than theat of the PS4. Cause the PS4 baseline will just go back to what it was at the start of this year while awaiting whatever boost you are talking about from "sony doing something".



Q1= 40,000-50,000
Q2=45,000-55,000
Q3=50,000-60,000
Q4=many boost to 100,000-200,000, but without, 70,000.