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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will the Xbox One's baseline be next year?

 

Where do you see the baseline?

30-40k 26 15.12%
 
41-50k 8 4.65%
 
51-60k 17 9.88%
 
61-70k 35 20.35%
 
71-80k 24 13.95%
 
81-90k 29 16.86%
 
91-100k 11 6.40%
 
101-110k 5 2.91%
 
111-120k 2 1.16%
 
Over 120k 15 8.72%
 
Total:172

It seems that the discounts and bundles have helped the console a great deal, to the point where it's been close to PS4 numbers a few weeks.

However, this got me thinking that many current sales might also have been brought forward from buyers that were going to buy it eventually. I mean, why buy it for 399 later when you can get it for 329 with two games?

On the other hand, it's also possible that these current sales will increase its momentum, as it's in more homes and it may generate more buzz.

What do you think?

I see it falling fairly hard compared to PS4 after the holidays, so while the baseline will be better than last years 40k (pre-price cut announcement), I don't see it selling gangbusters either. I'd go with 70k or so.



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I'd say that 70K sounds about right ...



In the beginning of the year, there's barely anything coming out on the Xbox One so I voted for 61-70K



I said 81-90k



Really tough to say. It's either that it will crash hard because a lot of people that have been holding out get it this holiday, decreasing the number of potential buyers dramatically or it will gain a synergy boost due to popularity, success and being in more people's homes.

Either way January and February are gonna be very interesting.

I'd love to here what fellow Xbox fans would have to say about that matter since they're more into the business of things.



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Well if they revert to $400 it'll probably be 70-80k weekly. Not exactly a lot of exclusives coming out in Q1. Screamride and some indie games I think. If they stay at $350 then maybe around 90k weely.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Depends on whether the price goes back up or not.

I think it will stay at $350. In which case, I think it's baseline will be about 70-80k.

If the price does go back to $400, I think we'll see a repeat of the console's April-May 2014, where it consistently sold under 50k, and dipped as low as 37k. (This period was after the $450 Titanfall bundle, and before the Kinect removal)



"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."

-Samuel Clemens

I'll go with 75k baseline.



Troll_Whisperer said:

It seems that the discounts and bundles have helped the console a great deal, to the point where it's been close to PS4 numbers a few weeks.

However, this got me thinking that many current sales might also have been brought forward from buyers that were going to buy it eventually. I mean, why buy it for 399 later when you can get it for 329 with two games?

On the other hand, it's also possible that these current sales will increase its momentum, as it's in more homes and it may generate more buzz.

What do you think?

I see it falling fairly hard compared to PS4 after the holidays, so while the baseline will be better than last years 40k (pre-price cut announcement), I don't see it selling gangbusters either. I'd go with 70k or so.

I think things will even out a bit after the price cut ends, but will have some of the momentum carry forward for the foresseable future until E3.

After E3 the sales will likely be affected by what announcements are made then.

PS4 has a couple of big exclusives coming out in the next few months such as Bloodborne and The Order 1886.

I agree that a 70k baseline seems probable.



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Troll_Whisperer said:

It seems that the discounts and bundles have helped the console a great deal, to the point where it's been close to PS4 numbers a few weeks.

However, this got me thinking that many current sales might also have been brought forward from buyers that were going to buy it eventually. I mean, why buy it for 399 later when you can get it for 329 with two games?

On the other hand, it's also possible that these current sales will increase its momentum, as it's in more homes and it may generate more buzz.

What do you think?

I see it falling fairly hard compared to PS4 after the holidays, so while the baseline will be better than last years 40k (pre-price cut announcement), I don't see it selling gangbusters either. I'd go with 70k or so.

Because PS4's sales aren't front loaded? Come on, the thing has no decent exclusive software and the price is still too high for the average buyer. Most people are waiting for either a price reduction or some must have 1st party game. As for the X1 it depends on the pricing and on how things go this holiday. If MS wins by a considerable margin in US/UK the hype will work in their favour as it did for PS4 last year and if they choose to keep the price advantage the trend won't change until sony does something.