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Forums - Sales - What will the Xbox One's baseline be next year?

 

Where do you see the baseline?

30-40k 26 15.12%
 
41-50k 8 4.65%
 
51-60k 17 9.88%
 
61-70k 35 20.35%
 
71-80k 24 13.95%
 
81-90k 29 16.86%
 
91-100k 11 6.40%
 
101-110k 5 2.91%
 
111-120k 2 1.16%
 
Over 120k 15 8.72%
 
Total:172
vivster said:
Ka-pi96 said:

I expect 1 million

Is that daily or hourly?

Please be serious. He ovbiously meant weekly like most of us think it will do.



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eva01beserk said:
vivster said:
Ka-pi96 said:

I expect 1 million

Is that daily or hourly?

Please be serious. He ovbiously meant weekly like most of us think it will do.

Logical stuff isn't fun :(



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eva01beserk said:
teigaga said:
eva01beserk said:

Momentum. Its the same reason Wii U still hasn't dropped to pre MK8 levels. Its the same reason PS4 went without major release in between march and june yet still sustained a very strong baseline. The Xbox is in a superior position to what it was in the summer, Year 2 sales are always higher- theres no reason to think Xbox is in risk of falling off the map with sub 50k sales. 

Jan: Dying Light+ post holiday momentum.

Feb: WItcher 3/Evolve- 2 potentially huge release, both likely to be pushed by MS based on previous E3's. The biggest releases of that month and none are available on 360/PS3. That will push hardware no doubt

March: Battlefield Hardline- obviously a big release

Q2 is quite an unknown quantity but is looking like it will Arkham Dark Knight, Fable Legends, Mortal Kombat X. Obviously theres only so much we can know this far in advance but its looking strong.  


Momentum is achived when a company like sony or nintendo did, they did something good lie release the supirior console or some good games, and have something good or better coming like more exclusive games, pricecut, adquisitions, new product and more. MS has no momentum, they are riding on a desperate temporary pricecut, new releases all pushhed for the same month, bundle games and holliday boost. Most those things end this very month and jsut the pricecut is left untill dec. As soon as jan is here they hae zero momentum, and coming foward they offer nothing that its not available on a supririor console like the ps4, the price will go up, no exclusive games, while the competition will be fightinhard and release new exclusives, amibos, possible pricecut and more.

So no, the x1 has no momentum, just a temporary spike like its had before, just that this time it will last a litle longer and like before it will completlty banish as soon as whats beiing ofered stops.


I don't mean to offend but I think you're quite bias in regards to the issue. I remember in the summer you were suggesting that Major 3rd party releases would have no signifcant effect on MS hardware sales because its inferior to the PS4, I think your perception the Xbox One and its brand is unrealistically low. A 50 dollar price cut is not gonna give you 440k week of unit sales unless there is underlying demand for the product you're selling. Microsoft have had the biggest exclusive releases of the fall so far, they've been the most price competitive and probably will remain so next. There should be momentum for all platforms in the new year but we shall wait it out and see...



Despite heavy promotion and price cut Xbox One AC bundle is still below PS4 $399 SKU. So it will be very hard for Xbox One to maintain constant sales. It will struggle in Q1 but improve in Q3.

Q1 2015 - 40K-50K.
Q2 2015 - 60K - 70K.
Q3 2015 - No idea.



vivster said:
eva01beserk said:
vivster said:

Is that daily or hourly?

Please be serious. He ovbiously meant weekly like most of us think it will do.

Logical stuff isn't fun :(

I think I told the punchline wrong :p But what ever, I think you got it anyways



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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teigaga said:
eva01beserk said:
teigaga said:

Momentum. Its the same reason Wii U still hasn't dropped to pre MK8 levels. Its the same reason PS4 went without major release in between march and june yet still sustained a very strong baseline. The Xbox is in a superior position to what it was in the summer, Year 2 sales are always higher- theres no reason to think Xbox is in risk of falling off the map with sub 50k sales. 

Jan: Dying Light+ post holiday momentum.

Feb: WItcher 3/Evolve- 2 potentially huge release, both likely to be pushed by MS based on previous E3's. The biggest releases of that month and none are available on 360/PS3. That will push hardware no doubt

March: Battlefield Hardline- obviously a big release

Q2 is quite an unknown quantity but is looking like it will Arkham Dark Knight, Fable Legends, Mortal Kombat X. Obviously theres only so much we can know this far in advance but its looking strong.  


Momentum is achived when a company like sony or nintendo did, they did something good lie release the supirior console or some good games, and have something good or better coming like more exclusive games, pricecut, adquisitions, new product and more. MS has no momentum, they are riding on a desperate temporary pricecut, new releases all pushhed for the same month, bundle games and holliday boost. Most those things end this very month and jsut the pricecut is left untill dec. As soon as jan is here they hae zero momentum, and coming foward they offer nothing that its not available on a supririor console like the ps4, the price will go up, no exclusive games, while the competition will be fightinhard and release new exclusives, amibos, possible pricecut and more.

So no, the x1 has no momentum, just a temporary spike like its had before, just that this time it will last a litle longer and like before it will completlty banish as soon as whats beiing ofered stops.


I don't mean to offend but I think you're quite bias in regards to the issue. I remember in the summer you were suggesting that Major 3rd party releases would have no signifcant effect on MS hardware sales because its inferior to the PS4, I think your perception the Xbox One and its brand is unrealistically low. A 50 dollar price cut is not gonna give you 440k week of unit sales unless there is underlying demand for the product you're selling. Microsoft have had the biggest exclusive releases of the fall so far, they've been the most price competitive and probably will remain so next. There should be momentum for all platforms in the new year but we shall wait it out and see...

I never hid that fact. What I said during the summer was that third party games would not drive x1's as much as it would drive ps4's. But not because of only the inferior hardware, it was the lack of exclusives they ofered. I said why buy an x1 for third party, while the ps4 plays them better and have many great quality exclusives.

Another thing you dont get, its not just a $50 price cut, like I said its that, plus the up to 3 free games and its the hollidays where consoles sale the most, plus a bunch of third party multyplats tht sell well everywhere. So its not a miracle nor pent up demand, just a very good deal even if you prefer the competition.

And the demand that your talking about could be just the people who where going to buy an x1 anyways(xbox fans, multy console owners, halo fans, what ever) just now have the perfect chance, holidays super cheap with some having up to 3 games free. but all that goes away eally soon and after that demand will disapear.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

75k



I've said it before but if the price cut does not remain in effect it will drop below the Wii Us end holiday baseline and we all know that's low. This is a short term push with a long term hurt at the end. The baseline will fall and it will fal hard.



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If the price rises back to $399, then sales will be bad. Plus there are no exclusives for most of the year whilst PS4 has two big exclusives plus will receive a boost from all the third party games coming out. So I'm gonna say 50-60k.



    

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eva01beserk said:
teigaga said:
eva01beserk said:

Momentum is achived when a company like sony or nintendo did, they did something good lie release the supirior console or some good games, and have something good or better coming like more exclusive games, pricecut, adquisitions, new product and more. MS has no momentum, they are riding on a desperate temporary pricecut, new releases all pushhed for the same month, bundle games and holliday boost. Most those things end this very month and jsut the pricecut is left untill dec. As soon as jan is here they hae zero momentum, and coming foward they offer nothing that its not available on a supririor console like the ps4, the price will go up, no exclusive games, while the competition will be fightinhard and release new exclusives, amibos, possible pricecut and more.

So no, the x1 has no momentum, just a temporary spike like its had before, just that this time it will last a litle longer and like before it will completlty banish as soon as whats beiing ofered stops.


I don't mean to offend but I think you're quite bias in regards to the issue. I remember in the summer you were suggesting that Major 3rd party releases would have no signifcant effect on MS hardware sales because its inferior to the PS4, I think your perception the Xbox One and its brand is unrealistically low. A 50 dollar price cut is not gonna give you 440k week of unit sales unless there is underlying demand for the product you're selling. Microsoft have had the biggest exclusive releases of the fall so far, they've been the most price competitive and probably will remain so next. There should be momentum for all platforms in the new year but we shall wait it out and see...

I never hid that fact. What I said during the summer was that third party games would not drive x1's as much as it would drive ps4's. But not because of only the inferior hardware, it was the lack of exclusives they ofered. I said why buy an x1 for third party, while the ps4 plays them better and have many great quality exclusives.

Another thing you dont get, its not just a $50 price cut, like I said its that, plus the up to 3 free games and its the hollidays where consoles sale the most, plus a bunch of third party multyplats tht sell well everywhere. So its not a miracle nor pent up demand, just a very good deal even if you prefer the competition.

And the demand that your talking about could be just the people who where going to buy an x1 anyways(xbox fans, multy console owners, halo fans, what ever) just now have the perfect chance, holidays super cheap with some having up to 3 games free. but all that goes away eally soon and after that demand will disapear.

I forgot to say. I might speak with bias, but that does not take away from what I say. Where I to say xbox will sell 5k because its crap or haz no gams or what ever else famboy thing people say, then you can disregard anything I say. But my opinion was based around facts not feelings.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.